cmc model! Will something form east of the Bahamas?

[rainydaze]

Yes.....bears watching

LOL I couldn't resist

[WeatherEmperor]

The system that is forecast to be near the Bahamas early next week could become interesting.

<RICKY>

[rainydaze]

Miami NWS discussion....are they talking about the same wave as this thread is? If so, it is interesting because they don't seem to give it a care in the world....

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILES WILL MOVE STEADILY WEST AND REACH SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE AT LEAST 50 PERCENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVE. NORMALLY WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER BUT THE GFS SHOWS A LOW
AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND OMEGA, BUT IT DOES SHOW MORE IMPRESSIVE
NUMBERS FURTHER NORTH. THE WAVE THEN SEEMS TO SLOW DOWN WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE EASTERN GULF IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SEEMS TO WASH OUT OVER NORTH
FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND. ALL DAYTIME PERIODS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER THE WAVE PASSES WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

[MiamiensisWx]

They are not sounding interested in it because of unfavorable shear around Florida and the Bahamas that would likely allow only VERY SLOW, IF ANY, development.

[ronjon]

All of the models have picked up on a T-Wave or Cyclone moving from around 20N-60W into the SE Bahamas, across FL and exiting into the GOM over the next 3-5 days. The globals have been predicting this scenario for days. The CMC/UKMET develop the system into a cyclone while the others GFS/NOGAPS retain an open wave. Since this system may not be truly warm core (i.e. tropical), the models may be picking up on baroclinic forcing to develop this storm. In that sense, this wave may become sub-tropical rather than purely tropical - or it may start off subtropical and transition to a tropical system in the Bahamas or GOM. Since this feature has strong global model support - it bears watching. At the very least, looks like some wet and windy weather for FL next week - we could sure use it in Tampa with the driest September on record.

[gatorcane]

the wave at 20N 60W is looking more impressive today

[Blown Away]

the wave at 20N 60W is looking more impressive today

I thought it looked better yesterday, very little shower activity today! IMO

[WeatherEmperor]

Isnt this feature at 20N, 60W more of an upper low? How come some are referring to it as a wave?

<RICKY>

[Hurricaneman]

Does not look good at the moment, but the models are picking up on it

[jrod]

Isnt this feature at 20N, 60W more of an upper low? How come some are referring to it as a wave?

<RICKY>

I think the area that bears watching is that low. I do believe it has some energy from a tropical wave with it. You know this time of the year is notorious for ULL developing into something tropical and that area is heading straight for Florida, obviously this an area with potential.

[CHRISTY]

thunderstorms flareing up with this system i think this system has a pretty good chance of becomeing a td! its headed right to florida i think this feature has to watched closely especially that high pressure is suppose to build soon! opinions!

[gatorcane]

Christy it sure looks to me like this ULL is trying to work down to the surface and get its act together. I noticed this earlier today and this trend continues. Florida definitely should begin watching this one. The good news for FL is that the environment does not look all that favorable where it is headed but should that change then watch out.

[WindRunner]

I must point this out:

I know the accuweather forcast is blasphemy here but,

We continue to track a low pressure area near 11 north and 34 west. This feature is not moving very quickly and the upper-level winds over this feature will slowly become somewhat favorable for development in a day or two. A tropical wave along 63 west has a surface low associated with it, but an upper-level feature nearby is preventing this from developing. Some computer information shows this wave eventually moving northwest and away from this upper-level feature by the end of the weekend. This could place the wave in the northern Bahamas by Monday. Another low was located near 12 north and 51 west, drifting northwest. No development is expected with this system Friday.

Just a little forecast verification for those who don't do such things . . .

[MiamiensisWx]

boca_chris, you seem to possibly be -removed- in some of your posts; however, I agree with the last statement in your latest post that the environment around Florida is not favorable and that if it gets more favorable the system could possibly gradually develop.