99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[O Town]

Well I for one am about over this wave. It needs to s!*t or get off the pot. It just keeps lingering. The longer it lingers it seems the more chance of the forcast changing. I am just gonna ignore it for a while and hope it just goes away.

[skysummit]

The pressures are falling in the area.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[WeatherEmperor]

its still looking very disorganized.

<RICKY>

[TS Zack]

They continue to fix the center further and further North. Therefore, this system may never come into contact with land(Yucatan)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050930 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050930 1800 051001 0600 051001 1800 051002 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 84.1W 19.3N 85.5W 20.0N 87.1W 20.8N 88.9W
BAMM 18.9N 84.1W 19.5N 85.7W 20.2N 87.4W 21.0N 89.3W
A98E 18.9N 84.1W 19.5N 85.2W 20.2N 86.6W 21.2N 88.2W
LBAR 18.9N 84.1W 19.2N 85.5W 20.4N 87.4W 21.8N 89.7W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 32KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051002 1800 051003 1800 051004 1800 051005 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.6N 90.7W 22.8N 93.8W 22.9N 96.9W 22.7N 100.4W
BAMM 21.9N 91.1W 23.1N 94.2W 23.2N 97.4W 23.0N 100.8W
A98E 22.6N 90.0W 24.8N 94.6W 26.5N 99.0W 27.5N 102.8W
LBAR 23.3N 91.8W 26.1N 95.4W 28.0N 98.2W 28.3N 99.6W
SHIP 49KTS 64KTS 76KTS 85KTS
DSHP 37KTS 52KTS 64KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 84.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 82.9W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 82.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z Model Guidance.

[Air Force Met]

The pressures are falling in the area.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Of course they are falling. We are coming up on the diurnal pressure min...which is usally at 4PM or so. The key to determining whether or not these are true pressure falls is to see what happens to the pressure b/w 4 PM and 10 PM. If that time shows a steady pressure or some pressure falls then we can attribute that to something other than diurnal effects.

[skysummit]

The pressures are falling in the area.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Of course they are falling. We are coming up on the diurnal pressure min...which is usally at 4PM or so. The key to determining whether or not these are true pressure falls is to see what happens to the pressure b/w 4 PM and 10 PM. If that time shows a steady pressure or some pressure falls then we can attribute that to something other than diurnal effects.

Ahhh..ok. Thanks AFM for the lesson

[vaffie]

The pressures are falling in the area.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Of course they are falling. We are coming up on the diurnal pressure min...which is usally at 4PM or so. The key to determining whether or not these are true pressure falls is to see what happens to the pressure b/w 4 PM and 10 PM. If that time shows a steady pressure or some pressure falls then we can attribute that to something other than diurnal effects.

Ahhh..ok. Thanks AFM for the lesson

You can also look at a plot of windspeeds, gusts and pressure for the buoy.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E
As you will see, the pressure has been falling for three days and the winds increasing, with the biggest change occurring in the last 24 hours.

[Air Force Met]

The pressures are falling in the area.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Of course they are falling. We are coming up on the diurnal pressure min...which is usally at 4PM or so. The key to determining whether or not these are true pressure falls is to see what happens to the pressure b/w 4 PM and 10 PM. If that time shows a steady pressure or some pressure falls then we can attribute that to something other than diurnal effects.

Ahhh..ok. Thanks AFM for the lesson

You can also look at a plot of windspeeds, gusts and pressure for the buoy.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E
As you will see, the pressure has been falling for three days and the winds increasing, with the biggest change occurring in the last 24 hours.

Yep...as the wave of low pressure moves towards it...the pressure will fall....and the gradient will tighten. Again...the key is convection and sustained pressure falls. The reason I pointed this out is because we are very quick to post no this board when the pressure is falling...but not so much when it is rising.

If you look at the trend...the buoy has a 29.75 pressure earlier this morning...which then ROSE to 29.83 at 15Z (which is the diurnal pressure max). Now it is moving back down again with the diurnal min. The pressures are a little lower than yesterday at this time...but with the wave of low pressure moving towards it...that is to be expected.

I guess what I am trying to say is there really are not large pressure falls in the area...only slight ones...and we don't know if that is the wave itself moving closer to the buoy or if the rpessure in the system is falling as a whole. I suspect it is a little of both. What has to happen is convection needs to fire and then stay consistant. Because the area of low pressure is broad...that will take some time.

[Portastorm]

At this moment, the entire WCarib is looking pretty sorry in terms of "organization." Just a lot of moisture.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE
LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
POORLY ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AFFECT
JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[WeatherEmperor]

well the NHC is still giving it a chance at developing but right now it still doesnt look very good.

<RICKY>

[cajungal]

5:30pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE
LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
POORLY ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AFFECT
JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

Sounds like a broken record that we have been hearing all week.

[vaffie]

5:30pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE
LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
POORLY ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AFFECT
JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

Sounds like a broken record that we have been hearing all week.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree--I've gotten really tired of watching it, but I've become addicted to it until I know it's dead and gone. I'm sure the NHC has too. But the fact of the matter is that on an overall basis, it's better than it has ever been and could develop rapidly tonight. It has a clear LLC on visible and IR imagery right now, with spiraling low clouds easily visible to its west. Indeed, one can make out an almost circular (blue and yellow) though very weak thunderstorm complex centered at about 19N, 84W right now. Though disorganized, thunderstorms have managed to form near the center throughout the day unlike yesterday, for instance, when Reconaissance said there was a 1009 mb area with no weather going on. It has a pressure that is low enough to be conducive for development--the buoy at 20N, 85W that it is approaching has reported a 1006.4 mb pressure in the last hour. That buoy is also reporting steady 15-16 knot easterly winds. I estimate that the center is about 40-60 miles from this buoy right now, and the center will take about 6 hours to reach it. Additionally, at least three of the global models, the GFS, ECMWF and the CMC have it strengthening somewhat and hitting northern Mexico/south Texas in a few days. Additionally, unlike previously, it appears that it might only graze or perhaps even miss the Yucatan--resulting in less if any weakening. Finally, depending on how fast it travels, it will have two to four days over the warm southern Gulf with close to ideal upper level dynamics and a return of high humidity values to help it grow. As it has done every day for the last week, it's convection begins pulsing strongly some time between 9 pm and midnight CDT, which it may begin to do in only four hours from now. At that point, if it forms directly over the center in a big way, which is more likely tonight than it has been since we started watching it, and the pressure drops enough, it could allow it to retain strong convection continuously, which it almost was able to do today, though in a very disorganized way. So though everyone is tired, I would, especially if I lived in the western Gulf coast not let my guard down quite yet--it still could be a threat. This could still become a strong storm, and quickly.

Finally, if you look at the visible floater loop, focusing on where the center is for the last three frames--21:15-22:15Z, you can see what may be the beginning of a new round of strong convection beginning--possibly three hours earlier than it usually begins--indicating what might be the beginning of prolonged continuous convection and pressure falls..

[KatDaddy]

I think I will take down the rest of the storm panels. Not much going on in the Caribbean and its very very rare that an October storm visits the Upper TX Coast. It has been a long season now its onward to Fall

[Roxy]

I think I will take down the rest of the storm panels. Not much going on in the Caribbean and its very very rare that an October storm visits the Upper TX Coast. It has been a long season now its onward to Fall

From your mouth to God's ears!

How about another cold front!

[gatorcane]

Yes, what scares me about 99L is that it could rapidly organize within a matter of just a day or so as climatology tells us. So while it currently has put much of us to sleep, it a matter of no time it could organize and create some major problems.

[cajungal]

What cold front? With a high still reaching 90 degrees here and lows in the 70's does not seem like much of a cold front to me. The 7-day forecast still shows temps to nearly 90 degrees almost every day. I guess it is better than the near 100 degree temps we have been having the week before.

[corpusbreeze]

I think I will take down the rest of the storm panels. Not much going on in the Caribbean and its very very rare that an October storm visits the Upper TX Coast. It has been a long season now its onward to Fall

This is just the season to break records.

[tw861]

I think I will take down the rest of the storm panels. Not much going on in the Caribbean and its very very rare that an October storm visits the Upper TX Coast. It has been a long season now its onward to Fall

Seasons such as the one we are in now are rare also. A couple more substantial cold fronts and I'm with you, but this so called cold front we just had is not enough to shut things down just yet I'm afraid.