Tropical Depression 19,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[DoctorHurricane2003]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home


That was fast... :o

[wxcrazytwo]

19L, SHOULDN'T IT BE 91L?

[MiamiensisWx]

We have our second "true" Cape Verde storm of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season besides Irene!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

crazy? Its formerly 90L, now Tropical Depression 19L. 91???

[MiamiensisWx]

19L, SHOULDN'T IT BE 91L?

It used to be INVEST.90L... they changed it to 19L.NONAME because it is now Tropical Depression 19.

[HURAKAN]

We have our second "true" Cape Verde storm of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season besides Irene!

A true CV Storm, as I know, is that one that's named before crossing 40W, so far no storm in 2005 has done that!

[cycloneye]

Doc I will change the title of thread to say Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread.

[MiamiensisWx]

A true CV Storm, as I know, is that one that's named before crossing 40W, so far no storm in 2005 has done that!

A storm is a "true" Cape Verde storm when it becomes at least a depression east of 40W. Irene became a depression east of 40W, and nw this system - TD 19 - has done that also.

It sure was perfect timing... upgraded to TD 19 around 30 minutes before the 5PM advisory time!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

This season is making my head explode...

Now we just have to wait for the NHC advisory. I'm certain this has a good chance at becoming Stan.

[cjrciadt]

Models are all over the place. For Example the NGPI goes NE then NW then NE then due W.

[Brent]

For some reason I don't think this will recurve, at least, not in the next few days.

[dwg71]

This has Houston written all over it. We have dodged our last bullet.

[Coredesat]

I'd have to agree. Might be a good idea to wait and see what the ridge does over the next few days before calling it a fish.

[skysummit]

This has Houston written all over it. We have dodged our last bullet.

You have got to be kidding me. Please tell us you're joking.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (AL192005) ON 20050930 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050930 1800 051001 0600 051001 1800 051002 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 32.9W 11.8N 33.5W 11.9N 34.2W 12.3N 35.3W
BAMM 11.8N 32.9W 11.9N 33.7W 12.1N 34.7W 12.4N 35.7W
A98E 11.8N 32.9W 11.9N 33.6W 12.0N 34.7W 12.5N 35.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051002 1800 051003 1800 051004 1800 051005 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 36.5W 15.8N 38.6W 18.0N 40.2W 19.9N 41.5W
BAMM 13.0N 36.9W 14.7N 38.6W 15.4N 39.7W 15.4N 40.7W
A98E 13.2N 37.2W 14.3N 39.5W 15.6N 41.8W 17.0N 44.2W
SHIP 51KTS 57KTS 59KTS 61KTS
DSHP 51KTS 57KTS 59KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 32.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 32.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 31.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Here are the models with the header TD19.

[Coredesat]

The 12z global models are interesting. The CMC and GFS send TD19 through a developing weakness in the ridge. However, the MM5 doesn't develop this weakness, and the NOGAPS seems to dissipate it after 120 hours.

The next runs should be even more interesting.

[WeatherEmperor]

Its pretty hard to go against the models this early in the game dont you think?

<RICKY>

[Brent]

It's moving at 2 mph...

[Brent]

Its pretty hard to go against the models this early in the game dont you think?

<RICKY>

Actually it's easy right now since the system is weak and moving very slowly.

[gatorcane]

19th depression of the season!!!