Tropical Depression 19 Advisories=11 AM=Last Advisorie

[cycloneye]

First Advisorie at 5 PM EDT.

[mascpa]

99L or 90L?

[skysummit]

99L or 90L?

90L

[Frank2]

Yes, I thought it might happen...

[Florida_TSR]

Frank the tank! Great job!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 21:00Z on September 30, 2005



tropical depression center located near 11.8n 32.9w at 30/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 2 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 11.8n 32.9w at 30/2100z
at 30/1800z center was located near 11.8n 32.9w

forecast valid 01/0600z 12.0n 33.2w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 01/1800z 12.2n 33.6w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 02/0600z 13.1n 34.4w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 02/1800z 14.7n 35.3w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 03/1800z 18.0n 36.5w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 50nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 04/1800z 22.0n 37.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.

Outlook valid 05/1800z 26.0n 37.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 11.8n 32.9w

next advisory at 01/0300z

forecaster Knabb/brown

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...19TH DEPRESSION OF SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST OR ABOUT
665 MILES...1070 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...11.8 N... 32.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN

[cycloneye]

This is what is a true fish.

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005

METSAT-8 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY A CLOSED
AND FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MORE RECENTLY...
SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... THE 19TH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON. DVORAK T NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE 1.5 FROM SAB AND 2.0 FROM
TAFB... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY... ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO SUGGESTS A WESTWARD DRIFT...
PERHAPS 275/2. THE LACK OF STEERING RESULTS FROM PRESENCE OF A
DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI TO THE NORTH
OF THE DEPRESSION... RATHER THAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING THAT IS MORE
OFTEN IN PLACE ALONG ABOUT 25N AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... UNTIL THE LOW TO THE NORTH DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD
AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED BY A TURN OF THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... AS
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO ITS WEST AND RISE TO ITS EAST... AS
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAPE VERDES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL
BUT FASTER THAN THE GFS WHICH SEEMS SLOWED BY A SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS
LOW TO ITS EAST. NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST A MOTION NORTH OF 30N
WITHIN FIVE DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THE SSTS EXCEED 28C. SOME STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND
THEN... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE SINCE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH ANTICIPATES CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO 60 KT BY 120 HOURS...
BUT THAT IS ALONG THE MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY BAMM TRACK... AND IT IS
ALSO MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFDL.

FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 11.8N 32.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.0N 33.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.2N 33.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 34.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 18.0N 36.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 22.0N 37.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 26.0N 37.0W 45 KT


$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it becomes a named system east of 40. We can say that 2005 had a cape verde season.

[fasterdisaster]

10:30pm TWO still called it TD 19 with a slightly different location than the 5pm advisory.

That doesn't necessarily mean they won't upgrade it.

[cycloneye]

And from 30 mph at 5 PM to 35 mph at 11 PM.

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO still called it TD 19 with a slightly different location than the 5pm advisory.

That doesn't necessarily mean they won't upgrade it.

Well, NRL hasn't changed, and that pretty much confirms it's not going to be Stan at 11pm. There's still a chance, but it looks small(I moved that to the comments thread BTW).

[fasterdisaster]

I have seen it before in the TWO where it is referred to as one type of tropical cyclone, and in an advisory issued shortly after, it was classified as the next type up.

[fasterdisaster]

10:30pm TWO still called it TD 19 with a slightly different location than the 5pm advisory.

That doesn't necessarily mean they won't upgrade it.

Well, NRL hasn't changed, and that pretty much confirms it's not going to be Stan at 11pm. There's still a chance, but it looks small(I moved that to the comments thread BTW).

Sorry, what does NRL stand for?

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO still called it TD 19 with a slightly different location than the 5pm advisory.

That doesn't necessarily mean they won't upgrade it.

Well, NRL hasn't changed, and that pretty much confirms it's not going to be Stan at 11pm. There's still a chance, but it looks small(I moved that to the comments thread BTW).

Sorry, what does NRL stand for?

Naval Research Laboratory... they almost always show an upgrade before the NHC advisory comes out.

[fasterdisaster]

Okeydoke, thanks.

[Brent]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 010231
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005
0300Z SAT OCT 01 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 33.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 33.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 33.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.5N 33.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.0N 33.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.2N 34.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.8N 35.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 33.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[fasterdisaster]

up to 35 mph.

[Brent]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 010231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
ANY LAND AREA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...12.3 N... 33.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN