Typhoon (Longwang) at WPAC

[wlfpack81]

One thing to consider is most agencies go by the WMO standard of 10min wind avg for tropical cycones where as the NHC and JTWC (since both are U.S. based) go by 1min avg. 1min avg. will always be higher than a 10min avg.

[P.K.]

I've always wondered why the NHC and JTWC don't follow the WMO standard like everyone else does. (Yes I'm aware the BOM categorise them on gusts)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the one minute is alot better systems overall. Its easlier to understand.

[P.K.]

We use ten minute averages over here easily enough.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Haha, I saw Rich Johnson discussing Longwang during the Tropical Update earlier. He referred to it as "17W".

Well, Rich "Johnson" certainly would be the forecaster to be talking about Longwang

[Brent]

Haha, I saw Rich Johnson discussing Longwang during the Tropical Update earlier. He referred to it as "17W".

Well, Rich "Johnson" certainly would be the forecaster to be talking about Longwang

Vivian Brown also called it by the number earlier as well... oh and she also said to keep "abreast" of the situation.

[calculatedrisk]

The Navy site is calling Longwang 130 knots and headed for Taiwan.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/WPAC/19W.LONGWANG/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

This SAT photo gives an idea of the size of Longwang:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=pacific/western/tropics&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050930.0619.goes9.ir.x.wpac_tropics.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

edit typo

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.5N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.7N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.0N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.8N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.8N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 129.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DISSIPATION
OF THE INNER EYEWALL, WHICH IS NOW SURROUNDED BY A LARGER RING OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY 70 NM IN DIAMETER. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN THE AERIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS, AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM GROWTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND
011500Z.//


120 kts

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 22.4N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.0N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.6N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.2N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.9N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.5N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 127.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY
LARGE EYE AS A RESULT OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE OVER-
ALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z,
011500Z AND 012100Z.//

[P.K.]

Only a 30kt difference now. This is going to do a lot of damage though.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 22.4N 128.5E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 23.2N 123.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 021800UTC 24.9N 118.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 031800UTC 25.2N 115.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[Scorpion]

It looks annular to me.

[superfly]

Yeah, this baby is definitely annular.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now that is getting up near where Katrina looked!!!

[superfly]

That eye is huge.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now that looks like a cat5...That makes katrina,Rita cry...Some one is going to get you know what.

[Scorpion]

Nah Katrina and Rita looked better.

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks VERY similar to Isabel from 2003 - definately!

NOTE - Isabel from 2003 was a storm in the Atlantic.

[wxmann_91]

HOLY CRAP!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

So... it is a powerful Category Four heading for Taiwan.

Is anyone making fun of this storm's name NOW?

[WeatherEmperor]

So... it is a powerful Category Four heading for Taiwan.

Is anyone making fun of this storm's name NOW?

I agree. Its gonna be a big disaster.

<RICKY>