Tropical Storm Otis,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:08 am

HURRICANE OTIS (EP152005) ON 20050930 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050930 1200 051001 0000 051001 1200 051002 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.8N 110.5W 21.6N 111.1W 22.2N 111.4W 23.1N 111.3W
BAMM 20.8N 110.5W 22.0N 111.2W 22.7N 111.9W 23.7N 112.4W
LBAR 20.8N 110.5W 21.8N 111.2W 22.6N 112.0W 24.0N 113.4W
SHIP 70KTS 80KTS 82KTS 80KTS
DSHP 70KTS 80KTS 82KTS 80KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051002 1200 051003 1200 051004 1200 051005 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.5N 110.9W 28.9N 110.6W 34.2N 105.8W 37.4N 95.2W
BAMM 24.6N 112.6W 27.3N 113.6W 30.4N 112.2W 31.7N 111.3W
LBAR 24.9N 114.5W 29.6N 114.3W 38.0N 106.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 73KTS 56KTS 37KTS 24KTS
DSHP 73KTS 56KTS 38KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.8N LONCUR = 110.5W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.6N LONM12 = 109.4W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 108.1W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 70NM

12:00z Models increase the winds to 80 mph.

I haved created this new thread since there is one for advisories.So post away for comments about this system that may go to Arizona.

#2 Postby **cjrciadt** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:10 am

I hope it jogs west to give much needed moisture in S. Cali for the massive wildfires.

#3 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:10 am

cjrciadt wrote:I hope it jogs west to give much needed moisture in S. Cali for the massive wildfires.

I second that motion....

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:11 am

cjrciadt wrote:I hope it jogs west to give much needed moisture in S. Cali for the massive wildfires.

Yes agree about that.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:15 am

Floater is needed now over Otis.

#6 Postby **cjrciadt** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:19 am

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Otis on the far left, and even 90L on the far right.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:20 am

#8 Postby **EDR1222** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 12:22 pm

It would be great to see it bring some rain to the SW U.S. I wonder if the EPAC is going to catch up to the Atlantic in named storms.

azsnowman · #9 Postby **azsnowman** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 12:38 pm

It appears we COULD possibly see SOME of the moisture up here in N. Az.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

SUNDAY MORNING AND BEYOND...TWO SYSTEMS TO WATCH... A BROAD TROF MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE REMNANTS OF OTIS. THE 8AM PDT DISCUSSION FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER ON OTIS READS THAT THEY PREFER THE GFS/UK/ SOLUTIONS DUE TO RECENTLY OBSERVED DATA. FINE...WE`LL GO WITH THE GFS. A QUICK LOOK A THIS MODELS 12Z RUN SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH ROUGHLY MONDAY NIGHT. I AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE AIRMASS IS VERY STABLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL LIKELY LEAVE CURRENT POP VALUES PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE..ALTHOUGH MAY MASSAGE AREAL COVERAGE. LATE MONDAY...MOISTURE AT H5 AND ABOVE IS SWEPT AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NRN AZ AS A STRONG VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA. H7 WINDS ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE AT 18Z MONDAY AND SFC WIND GUSTS COULD VARY FROM 25 TO NEAR 40 MPH...AGAIN DEPENDING ON STABILITY.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 12:43 pm

A good view of Hurricane Otis.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 1:34 pm

30/1800 UTC 21.3N 111.0W T5.0/5.0 OTIS -- East Pacific Ocean

5.0 means 90kts wow a cat 2 threatening Baja California.

aveosmth · #12 Postby **aveosmth** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:01 pm

These wildfires are so terrible as far as air quality out here....I'm watching Hurricane Otis very closely & I hope it does help us out.

SAFE3232 · #13 Postby **SAFE3232** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:17 pm

Here's a link w/ some interesting history about tropical cyclones & the effects on Southern california & the southwest.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/whhcalif.htm

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:07 pm

HURRICANE OTIS (EP152005) ON 20051001 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051001 0000 051001 1200 051002 0000 051002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.5N 111.3W 22.2N 112.1W 23.2N 112.5W 24.5N 112.6W
BAMM 21.5N 111.3W 22.3N 112.2W 23.1N 112.9W 23.9N 113.2W
LBAR 21.5N 111.3W 22.4N 111.9W 23.2N 112.6W 24.7N 112.9W
SHIP 75KTS 78KTS 76KTS 69KTS
DSHP 75KTS 78KTS 76KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051003 0000 051004 0000 051005 0000 051006 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.1N 113.1W 30.9N 112.4W 35.4N 105.4W 37.2N 95.3W
BAMM 24.9N 113.8W 27.6N 114.3W 29.3N 114.8W 31.0N 116.9W
LBAR 27.2N 114.3W 33.7N 112.6W 41.2N 99.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 45KTS 26KTS 0KTS
DSHP 54KTS 36KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.5N LONCUR = 111.3W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.8N LONM12 = 110.5W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 109.4W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 70NM

gilbert88 · #15 Postby **gilbert88** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:08 pm

Mmm.. if it could just avoid Baja and hit SoCa directly...

Edit: I mean hit as a TD, of course.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:10 pm

gilbert88 wrote:Mmm.. if it could just avoid Baja and hit SoCa directly...

Yeah to get rid of those fires there.

JTD · #17 Postby **JTD** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:
gilbert88 wrote:Mmm.. if it could just avoid Baja and hit SoCa directly...

Yeah to get rid of those fires there.

Not that it will in this case (none of the models show it) but could a strong system in the EPAC ever hit downtown Los Angeles as a hurricane?

JTD · #18 Postby **JTD** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:
gilbert88 wrote:Mmm.. if it could just avoid Baja and hit SoCa directly...

Yeah to get rid of those fires there.

Not that it will in this case (none of the models show it) but could a strong system in the EPAC ever hit downtown Los Angeles as a hurricane?

I have to say living in the Pacific Northwest that it's amazing to see a hurricane not too far away from me.

wxmann_91 · #19 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 10:05 pm

jason0509 wrote:Not that it will in this case (none of the models show it) but could a strong system in the EPAC ever hit downtown Los Angeles as a hurricane?

Almost impossible. The waters off the coast of LA and San Diego are during the warmest part of the year only 65 degrees due to the cold California current. To add to that, a hurricane that makes landfall needs a shortwave trough to steer it northeastward. This means two things:

a) shear is going to impact it as it is making landfall
b) that any hurricane can only threaten during the latter months of hurricane season where there are shortwaves, therefore water temps are probably going to be colder

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 10:09 pm

There was a hurricane that made landfall in San Diego right? On what year that unique event occured?

Tropical Storm Otis,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Tropical Storm Otis,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

I hope so

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