accuweather indicates problems for texas, se coast

[rainstorm]

Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion Posted: September 30, 2005 8:09 p.m.



19TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC


As of 5:00 p.m. Friday, Tropical Depression 19 was located near 11.8 north and 32.9 west, or about 665 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It was moving to the west at 2 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure was 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches. TD 19 should slowly track north and could become a tropical storm within 12-24 hours. If it did, it would be named Stan. This feature should generally track to the north-northwest toward the open waters of the Atlantic over the weekend.

A broad area of low pressure located along 84 west, south of 22 north, is tracking west-northwest at 10-15 knots. The center of circulation has taken a jump northward over the past 12-24 hours, and it appears to be close to 20 north. It should track near the northern Yucatan Peninsula Saturday, and then into the open waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday. We are concerned about the development farther to the north and its future impact on the Texas or Mexican coast. Latest models locate the track of this feature farther north over the weekend, and the GFS now takes it into the lower Rio Grande Valley Monday. We think this feature can still become a depression over the weekend and pass across the northern Yucatan. If it passes north of the Yucatan, provided it has become a depression, it could strengthen into a tropical storm or possibly a hurricane in the southwestern Gulf by early next week. If it goes over the Yucatan, then it would take longer to recharge. Meanwhile, upper-level shear is and will be favorable for development from the northwestern Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf through early next week. Anybody with interests along the Texas coast into northeastern Mexico should keep up to date on this feature.

A tropical wave along 68 west shows little sign of development. An upper trough of low pressure interacting with a tropical wave to the northeast of Puerto Rico will have to be watched for slow development over the weekend. This feature could be destined for the Southeast coast of the United States next Tuesday or Wednesday. Another area of disturbed weather southwest of Bermuda will shift west and could juice things up along the Southeast coast early next week.
http://www.accuweather.com

[Terry]

So Accuweather said "blahblahblah."

[wxmann_91]

Dr. Jeff Masters doesn't think so:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

However, unless the disturbance can fire up some more deep convection by midnight tonight, it will probably totally fall apart and no longer be a threat to the Gulf Coast.

[rainstorm]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=75921

[StormSkeptic]

Well I doubt that the center is near 20 north. Buoy 42056 at 20N 85W is reporting a consistent ESE wind, which woudl indicate either an open wave or a center south and west of the Buoy. Looks to be more like near the edge of the blow-up of convection at 17.5N 86W

[aerojad]

So Accuweather said "blahblahblah."

...and to give them money.

[Okibeach]

Local mets mentioning some possible development for southeast coast next week as well.

FXUS62 KMHX 010701
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
301 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2005


.LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...CONTINUED UNSETTLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND BEST QPF REMAINING S OF REGION MON THROUGH WED. THIS MOISTURE
WILL THEN SHIFT N AND E THU INTO FRI AS FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
REGION. WL KEEP CHCY POPS GOING THRU PD WITH BEST CHC LOOKING TO BE
THU. [b]COULD STILL SEE LOW DVLP ALONG FRNT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE CST
LATER IN WEEK...HOWEVER TIMING/POSITION STILL IN DOUBT. IF LOW DOES
DEVELOP WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY GIVEN WARM WTR. [/b]OVERALL MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS EXTENDED GRIDS.

[tornadochaser86]

That L99 still looks pretty disorganized to me

[beachbum_al]

Isn't 90l way out and looks like a fish right now or do I have the wrong one. I am thinking that the TD is the one coming from the CV.

[x-y-no]

Well I doubt that the center is near 20 north. Buoy 42056 at 20N 85W is reporting a consistent ESE wind, which woudl indicate either an open wave or a center south and west of the Buoy. Looks to be more like near the edge of the blow-up of convection at 17.5N 86W

Yes, I agree. I don't see any sign of a closed circulation, but if there is one it must be well south of there, based on the wind direction histogram of that bouy.

[x-y-no]

Well I doubt that the center is near 20 north. Buoy 42056 at 20N 85W is reporting a consistent ESE wind, which woudl indicate either an open wave or a center south and west of the Buoy. Looks to be more like near the edge of the blow-up of convection at 17.5N 86W

Yes, I agree. I don't see any sign of a closed circulation, but if there is one it must be well south of there, based on the wind direction histogram of that bouy.

Well, NHC initialized TD 20 at 19.3N 85.8W.