99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[audioslave8]

We won't have to worry about this one exploding into much. Take a look at the dry air to the northwest of it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

[tw861]

Well dry air or not, thats one heck of an explosion of convection that showed up when the eclipse was over. Almost looks like some banding features are developing.

[audioslave8]

Well dry air or not, thats one heck of an explosion of convection that showed up when the eclipse was over. Almost looks like some banding features are developing.

Don't get me wrong it is more impressive than ever right now. It just wont have the ingredients in the gulf like all the rest of the storms have had in there. If that orange dry air starts to fade and the center goes a little north of the Yucutan that could be a different story. It cannot survive though if it hits the Yucatan moving slowley especially being in it's weak stages. It will be shredded apart in no time. I give it A for the rebound it has done overnight. It does have some good banding features. Let's see now if this is a trend or just a tease like it has done alot here lateley. I'm sure they will want to send a plane out if this keeps up.

[vaffie]

Well dry air or not, thats one heck of an explosion of convection that showed up when the eclipse was over. Almost looks like some banding features are developing.

Don't get me wrong it is more impressive than ever right now. It just wont have the ingredients in the gulf like all the rest of the storms have had in there. If that orange dry air starts to fade and the center goes a little north of the Yucutan that could be a different story. It cannot survive though if it hits the Yucatan moving slowley especially being in it's weak stages. It will be shredded apart in no time. I give it A for the rebound it has done overnight. It does have some good banding features. Let's see now if this is a trend or just a tease like it has done alot here lateley. I'm sure they will want to send a plane out if this keeps up.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dear audioslave8,
Thank you for your posts. I have to say that I respectfully disagree--though I could be very wrong too, and have been very often--like for instance I predicted this would be a tropical storm on Thursday morning, so you can see that I always have a stronger storm bias. The dry air you speak of is rapidly disappearing and converting into moist air--look at the water vapor loop. 20 mile per hour winds from the east are pulling hot, moist, Atlantic air into the Gulf as we speak. Additionally, the Gulf is very warm and moist itself--and is internally changing. A close examination of the Gulf WV loop will show you that the dry air is being attacked from the west, the south, and the southeast--and keep in mind that Otis will in the next day or two start pushing moist air into the Gulf from the Pacific Ocean too. The reason why it was dry was because a cold front brought it. There will not be another cold front until midweek, and it might never even reach the Gulf. So this won't happen. If you don't believe me yet, look at the blue areas on this relative humidity map forecast: http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/6pan ... panel.html
Most of the Gulf will have humidity levels of 70-90% in just 24 hours from now.
In regard to weakening over the Yucatan, it is only projected to be over the Yucatan, a very low-lying humid area of Mexico, for 6-12 hours, if that. No storm has died over the Yucatan in that amount of time. I challenge you to find me one. Additionally, as it strengthens into a Depression and a Tropical Storm over the course of the day and the pressure continues to drop as more and more convection continues to fire over its center, it's track will begin to ever so slightly move north of previous projections, so that it might end up being over the Yucatan for less and less time. Finally, as the pressure falls, there is a lag time for the moisture from the surrounding areas to catch up to the center, which in this case covers half the Caribbean. This means that as the center moves over the Yucatan, its convection and level of organization could continue to increase or at least remain stable. Additionally, half to two-thirds of the system will still be over open water, so I doubt it would weaken much at all if any. In fact I project it to make landfall as a medium to strong tropical storm and to rapidly intensify once it emerges.

And for those of you in Texas who have written this thing off, I would strongly reconsider. As BLHutch reported, 11 storms have hit the Texas coast in the last 170 years after October 1st, (and 4 of them hitting Galveston). In a year with the strongest Bermuda High in recent memory, why can't this year not be another such storm? All model projections to date have been based on very incomplete atmospheric data from the Gulf and Caribbean up to now--pointing generally at Brownsville or south of there--this will gradually become filled in over the course of Saturday as they send airplanes in and the models readjust to the new data. Additionally, as this storm strengthens, because it is not traveling very fast, only 8 knots as of the 6Z model input, it is going to move further and further north due to the Coriolis Effect, and so while south Texas may be projected now, central and upper Texas might be projected later. It almost always happens--see what happened with Rita. Lastly, with that change from a west track to a northwest track, it will have 30-40% more distance to traverse and time to strengthen and in doing so will also gain latitude--all three of these factors will allow more rapid strengthening over water that is to the west of Rita's track and so which is not upwelled. It will arrive just as the Euro and GFS models show a cold front over the Central Plains--a bad sign for those in Upper Texas and western Louisiana coasts. It is far too early to project where it will make landfall, but everyone from Tampico to New Orleans should be paying increasing amounts of attention to this. In my opinion, things have just taken a big turn for the worse.

[Cookiely]

Interesting discussion from Brownsville TX NWS
000
FXUS64 KBRO 010818
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
318 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A WEEK OF CONSISTENT RECORD BREAKING HIGHS IN SOUTH
TEXAS...WE SHOULD FINALLY BREAK THROUGH AND COOL DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MIDLEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN THE REGION FOR
WELL OVER 2 WEEKS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE NORTH BY THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
REGION STARTING SUNDAY...PEAKING LATER ON MONDAY. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME RANGE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LEFT FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MODELS RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE REACHING SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY...SHUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION.

[skysummit]

Well, that mess remains a mess to these eyes at this hour. It was an impressive blow up of convection overnight, but once again it seems disorganized. Anyone saw the GFDL and NOGAPS? They both stall this system in the BOC.

***Correction: It's not the GFDL. It's the GFDL Interpolated.

[cycloneye]

1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W MOVING
WNW ABOUT 5 KT. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN EARLIER TODAY WITH INCREASING BANDING FEATURES. IN
ADDITION PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING NEAR THE LOW
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR NEAR YUCATAN OR THE SRN GULF. AN
UPPER LOW IS NW OF THE SURFACE LOW... SOMEWHAT HINDERING ITS
DEVELOPMENT BUT ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL FADE
WITH TIME AND CREATE MORE RIDGE ALOFT AFTER THE LOW ENTERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

8 AM Discussion.

Let's see if 99 decides to do something or develop into a TD or fizzle out as it has taken many days to organize and I want to lock this thread.

[skysummit]

Hey...they finally didn't copy and paste an earlier discussion!!!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20051001 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051001 1200 051002 0000 051002 1200 051003 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.2N 85.5W 19.8N 87.2W 20.4N 89.0W 21.2N 90.8W
BAMM 19.2N 85.5W 20.0N 87.4W 20.8N 89.2W 21.7N 90.8W
A98E 19.2N 85.5W 19.7N 86.5W 20.6N 87.8W 21.7N 89.4W
LBAR 19.2N 85.5W 20.0N 87.2W 21.2N 89.1W 22.6N 91.1W
SHIP 25KTS 36KTS 47KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 28KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051003 1200 051004 1200 051005 1200 051006 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.7N 92.4W 22.1N 95.7W 21.7N 99.1W 21.4N 103.0W
BAMM 22.3N 92.4W 22.9N 95.5W 22.6N 98.8W 21.8N 103.1W
A98E 22.7N 91.5W 24.3N 96.2W 25.1N 100.7W 26.2N 105.4W
LBAR 23.7N 93.1W 25.9N 97.0W 26.7N 98.7W 27.0N 100.0W
SHIP 66KTS 80KTS 88KTS 91KTS
DSHP 47KTS 61KTS 46KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 85.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 84.5W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 83.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models.

[rockyman]

Anyone have an explanation for NOGAPS U-term in the BOC? Here is the current model plot (NOGAPS is the pink/purple line):

[skysummit]

Anyone have an explanation for NOGAPS U-term in the BOC? Here is the current model plot (NOGAPS is the pink/purple line):

The GFDL Interpolated shows the same thing.

[vaffie]

Anyone have an explanation for NOGAPS U-term in the BOC? Here is the current model plot (NOGAPS is the pink/purple line):

My guess is that it's the result of an interaction between itself and the high--as the cold front builds over the central plains and moves east, it forces the high pressure to sag southwest, south, and eventually southeast. This is what happens at the very tail of cold fronts if they're missed--consider Ophelia as an example. The fact is though that this would only occur if 99 is south enough at the time, any further north and it would be forced northward. But until two or three planes have flown into it tonight, even the global models won't have a good handle on it yet. For Rita, mind you, NOGAPS consistently was the farthest south model, forecasting the strongest high and the weakest front. It wasn't until 36 hours before landfall that it came in line with the other models. It had Rita going into Mexico for days, and not that much has changed in the last week. Once the GFDL and GFS properly initialize it tonight, then we'll know what's gonna happen. For Rita, they did a fine predictive job, and this time, it's not all that different of a setup..

[ROCK]

Well dry air or not, thats one heck of an explosion of convection that showed up when the eclipse was over. Almost looks like some banding features are developing.

Don't get me wrong it is more impressive than ever right now. It just wont have the ingredients in the gulf like all the rest of the storms have had in there. If that orange dry air starts to fade and the center goes a little north of the Yucutan that could be a different story. It cannot survive though if it hits the Yucatan moving slowley especially being in it's weak stages. It will be shredded apart in no time. I give it A for the rebound it has done overnight. It does have some good banding features. Let's see now if this is a trend or just a tease like it has done alot here lateley. I'm sure they will want to send a plane out if this keeps up.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dear audioslave8,
Thank you for your posts. I have to say that I respectfully disagree--though I could be very wrong too, and have been very often--like for instance I predicted this would be a tropical storm on Thursday morning, so you can see that I always have a stronger storm bias. The dry air you speak of is rapidly disappearing and converting into moist air--look at the water vapor loop. 20 mile per hour winds from the east are pulling hot, moist, Atlantic air into the Gulf as we speak. Additionally, the Gulf is very warm and moist itself--and is internally changing. A close examination of the Gulf WV loop will show you that the dry air is being attacked from the west, the south, and the southeast--and keep in mind that Otis will in the next day or two start pushing moist air into the Gulf from the Pacific Ocean too. The reason why it was dry was because a cold front brought it. There will not be another cold front until midweek, and it might never even reach the Gulf. So this won't happen. If you don't believe me yet, look at the blue areas on this relative humidity map forecast: http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/6pan ... panel.html
Most of the Gulf will have humidity levels of 70-90% in just 24 hours from now.
In regard to weakening over the Yucatan, it is only projected to be over the Yucatan, a very low-lying humid area of Mexico, for 6-12 hours, if that. No storm has died over the Yucatan in that amount of time. I challenge you to find me one. Additionally, as it strengthens into a Depression and a Tropical Storm over the course of the day and the pressure continues to drop as more and more convection continues to fire over its center, it's track will begin to ever so slightly move north of previous projections, so that it might end up being over the Yucatan for less and less time. Finally, as the pressure falls, there is a lag time for the moisture from the surrounding areas to catch up to the center, which in this case covers half the Caribbean. This means that as the center moves over the Yucatan, its convection and level of organization could continue to increase or at least remain stable. Additionally, half to two-thirds of the system will still be over open water, so I doubt it would weaken much at all if any. In fact I project it to make landfall as a medium to strong tropical storm and to rapidly intensify once it emerges.

And for those of you in Texas who have written this thing off, I would strongly reconsider. As BLHutch reported, 11 storms have hit the Texas coast in the last 170 years after October 1st, (and 4 of them hitting Galveston). In a year with the strongest Bermuda High in recent memory, why can't this year not be another such storm? All model projections to date have been based on very incomplete atmospheric data from the Gulf and Caribbean up to now--pointing generally at Brownsville or south of there--this will gradually become filled in over the course of Saturday as they send airplanes in and the models readjust to the new data. Additionally, as this storm strengthens, because it is not traveling very fast, only 8 knots as of the 6Z model input, it is going to move further and further north due to the Coriolis Effect, and so while south Texas may be projected now, central and upper Texas might be projected later. It almost always happens--see what happened with Rita. Lastly, with that change from a west track to a northwest track, it will have 30-40% more distance to traverse and time to strengthen and in doing so will also gain latitude--all three of these factors will allow more rapid strengthening over water that is to the west of Rita's track and so which is not upwelled. It will arrive just as the Euro and GFS models show a cold front over the Central Plains--a bad sign for those in Upper Texas and western Louisiana coasts. It is far too early to project where it will make landfall, but everyone from Tampico to New Orleans should be paying increasing amounts of attention to this. In my opinion, things have just taken a big turn for the worse.

you know since you joined that is the most in-depth, fact driven post I have seen from you yet.....And to disagree with someone without the typical one word flame.....awesome...good job... vaffie keep it up.....personally, I find some truth in your forecast however I think the Yuc really is going to play a number on this one and rip it up. Might not survive.

[skysummit]

If it could stay as just a low crossing the Yuc with no development, it may survive...but moving as slow as it is, I doubt it.

[vaffie]

you know since you joined that is the most in-depth, fact driven post I have seen from you yet.....And to disagree with someone without the typical one word flame.....awesome...good job... vaffie keep it up.....personally, I find some truth in your forecast however I think the Yuc really is going to play a number on this one and rip it up. Might not survive.

Thanks ROCK. It might or it mightn't. I've noticed though that sometimes the longer it takes for a system to get through the initial development---in this case it would be over a week--such as in the cases of Katrina and Rita, the more likely they are to hang on well when they interact with land. Also note that the 12Z DSHIPS model, which takes into account land disruption, takes it from 31 knots only to 28 knots and back up to 37 knots. Personally, I think it will be more like 45 knots-->40 knots-->65 knots, but who knows. We'll just have to see. Like I said, I'm often wrong. But I've also been right--7 days before Rita hit, I wrote an email to my class warning them that though it looked like a weak depression in the Caribbean, our area could be threatened by at least a major hurricane, and they should start planning to evacuate if needed. And I am close to equally concerned about this one too--but won't know until the models start working properly.

[krysof]

Can we lock this thread now?

[skysummit]

Hey...we can FINALLY get rid of this thread! Get it gone Cycloneye!!!

[Brent]

Now that this is TD 20... can we please lock this thread???

[cycloneye]

Yes !!! Finnally I will lock this thread.