jeff master's on development near bahamas

[CHRISTY]

[img]Southeast U.S.
Several of the global computer models continue to forecast that a tropical storm may form near the Bahama Islands on Monday or Tuesday. Any system forming in this region would be forced westward or west-southwestward into the Southeast Coast by a strong ridge of high pressure building in[/img]

[wzrgirl1]

which models...show proof please

[skysummit]

They must still be talking about that ULL? If so, it already seems to be moving WSW or SW? I wonder if this will be another system that misses Florida all together?

[x-y-no]

I'd say it's a stretch to say they're hinting at at TS in the Bahamas ...

The Euro, UKMET and NOGAPS all have a very similar idea moving a wave through the Florida Straits and developing the system in the south central Gulf, though. Hate to say it, but a very similar setup to Rita ... although I hasten to say odds are for a weaker system.

Euro at 3 days:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=gE_tr1&id=&zoom=.6&ge=1024x480&mo=ecmwf&le=sfc&va=slp&in=1&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

6 days:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=gE_tr1&id=&zoom=.6&ge=1024x480&mo=ecmwf&le=sfc&va=slp&in=1&pl=ln&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

UKMET at 3 days:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005100100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=072hr

6 days:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005100100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

NOGAPS at 3 days:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005100100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=072hr

6 days:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005100100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

...

Canadian is closest to what he's saying, with a strong wave inthe northern Bahamas which moves across central Florida:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005100100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=096hr

[skysummit]

The Euro, UKMET and NOGAPS all have a very similar idea moving a wave through the Florida Straits and developing the system in the south central Gulf, though. Hate to say it, but a very similar setup to Rita ... although I hasten to say odds are for a weaker system.

That's exactly what I was thinking. Look back for the model links.

[jrod]

The water is definatly still warm near the Bahamas. We'll see what the upper level winds do, that is the inhibiting factor IMO for this blob.

[cajungal]

Would it get in the gulf or just ride up the coast of Florida?

[Steve H.]

That Masters's post was leftover from Yesterday. He didn't update that portion today. That said, there should be ripe conditions for the low NE of PR to develop as it approaches the Bahamas. I expect the models to recognize this by late tomorrow or 0Z Monday.

[CHRISTY]

i agree cat 1 ! if anyone has more info post it!thanks. sat images ext...

[JamesFromMaine2]

Gulf of Mexico SST Anomalies

[tornadochaser86]

up but it looks pretty small and disorganized right now

[tornadochaser86]

theres a little more convection right now but it still looks disorganized

[terstorm1012]

My local met (WGAL-TV, Central PA), Dr. John Scalia (he teaches meteorology at my alma mater) mentioned "tropical moisture" sometime this week. . . so who knows, something might pop up.