Tropical Depression 20,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

wxcrazytwo · #21 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:45 am

cycloneye wrote:wxcrazytwo I now am going to change the title of thread to say comments,sat pics,models thread.Finnally I will lock the 99L thread.

Okay, that is up to you. It just shocked me that I stumbled on it.. It was quick..

#22 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:45 am

Damn...even CNN beat Wunderground!?!?!?

#23 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:47 am

You gotta love being faster than AccuWeather & Weather Underground!

#24 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:48 am

Yea....good job Skeeto! To hell with them both!!!! :lol:

Should someone email Accuweather and let them know? Nah...they'll find it out in a bit on here.

#25 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:06 am

Look at the Northwest portion of the U.S. I don't think this will continue westward and southwestward.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/w ... us&type=wv

KatDaddy · #26 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:09 am

I find it very hard to believe this will go W into NE Mexico. A decent front should be approaching the N GOM Thursday. I would expect this front to force a much more N motion by Tuesday.

#27 Postby **canetracker** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:09 am

skysummit wrote:Look at the Northwest portion of the U.S. I don't think this will continue westward and southwestward.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/w ... us&type=wv

That is quite an impressive trough. Kind of reminds me of a Rita scenario.

#28 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:11 am

canetracker wrote:
skysummit wrote:Look at the Northwest portion of the U.S. I don't think this will continue westward and southwestward.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/w ... us&type=wv

That is quite an impressive trough. Kind of reminds me of a Rita scenario.

It sure does. It's "almost" a given that the track will shift north. Of course though...the NHC's track is the one to follow.

jwayne · #29 Postby **jwayne** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:12 am

If we have a bust to the east with this like with rita, houston you have a problem.

Stratosphere747 · #30 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:12 am

Remember this is the inital forecast, without recon etc...

Expect some changes at the 5pm advisory when they have a chance to take in some more info...

cajungal · #31 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:12 am

I wish we would get a cold front. Not that I want it to pick up a tropical system and send it in my direction, but they said a cold front was supposed to come down this week. Did not get this far down to the coast. Because we are still hitting near 90 degrees.

krysof · #32 Postby **krysof** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:16 am

jwayne wrote:If we have a bust to the east with this like with rita, houston you have a problem.

not to mention, it will have the perfect conditions for rapid intensification, the further it stays in the water, the stronger it may become

corpusbreeze · #33 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:18 am

Rita's 5 day was at Brownsville, then south of Corpus, then Galveston. And we know where it did hit. The NHC wont have a good idea until tomorrow. The models seem to be on another planet right now.

jwayne · #34 Postby **jwayne** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:19 am

main problem with a bust to the east is that the storm would be coming through "virgin" waters undisturbed by rita. man, this could be bad if this pulls a rita with a shift that far east. could you imagine the psych issues caused on upper tx coast????

rockyman · #35 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:19 am

From the 11am disco: "The available NHC model guidance is in
fair agreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the
next 72 hours as the broad but weak subtropical ridge along the
northern Gulf Coast remains intact through the forecast period. The
forecast track is a blend of the 3 BAM models... plus the GFS and
UKMET solutions."

Since the track is based on the "3 BAM models" which I thought were not so good about 20N...the GFS (which is just now picking up on the system) and the UKMet...which are only in "fair agreement" and there is only a "broad but weak...ridge", I would not be too surprised to see future tracks turn drastically more northward...the system is not even supposed to get into the Bay of Campeche...but emerge on the north (not west) coast of the Yucatan...plus we're in October...does anyone else think the system will not stay south?

jwayne · #36 Postby **jwayne** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:20 am

corpusbreeze wrote:Rita's 5 day was at Brownsville, then south of Corpus, then Galveston. And we know where it did hit. The NHC wont have a good idea until tomorrow. The models seem to be on another planet right now.

my point exactly. models have been overestimating ridge, which is not unexpected given the time of the year.

Stratosphere747 · #37 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:27 am

jwayne wrote:main problem with a bust to the east is that the storm would be coming through "virgin" waters undisturbed by rita. man, this could be bad if this pulls a rita with a shift that far east. could you imagine the psych issues caused on upper tx coast????

The SST's are not even close to what Rita and Kat went thru..

#38 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:33 am

The outflow seems to be getting better and better with every image.

#39 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:37 am

another thing with track is you always need to take into account the possibility of center relocation which has happened a lot this season with developing cyclones

ROCK · #40 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:52 am

ivanhater wrote:another thing with track is you always need to take into account the possibility of center relocation which has happened a lot this season with developing cyclones

Exactly......Cindy was in a similiar state and position when she crossed the Yuc and reformed her center further north and east afterwards.

Tropical Depression 20,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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