IS something heading towards florida??

[Noah]

central West coast to be precise???

[Innotech]

uhh....no.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A Upper Level Low 700 miles east of the bahamas is headed
for SouthEast FL. Whether or not it works its way down to the surface and
develops is the big question.

[Noah]

A Upper Level Low 700 miles east of the bahamas is headed
for SouthEast FL. Whether or not it works its way down to the surface and
develops is the big question.

thanks hurricane, so much going on i cant follow it, you hva a link?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A Upper Level Low 700 miles east of the bahamas is headed
for SouthEast FL. Whether or not it works its way down to the surface and
develops is the big question.

thanks hurricane, so much going on i cant follow it, you hva a link?

I don't have a link, sorry
but heard this yesterday by Dick Fletcher on 10 News

Several local Meterologists are telling FL to watch this ULL.

[ronjon]

A Upper Level Low 700 miles east of the bahamas is headed
for SouthEast FL. Whether or not it works its way down to the surface and
develops is the big question.

Its got some model support from CMC & UKMET. Heck, even the Euro shows a weak low off the FL east coast. Im not sure it will develop prior to moving across the FL peninsula BUT I'd wagger it will becuz for some reason the Bahamas seem to be a breeding ground for storms to develop this year. There will be a large high pressure to the north assisting in outflow and plenty warm SSTs. If it doesn't develop off the east coast, look for some type pf development in the GOM. Both GFS and NOGAPs want to consistently blow something up in the SE GOM in 5 days.

[Terry]

Just some more possible thunderstorms coming our way from the east, Noah.

And tg for these easterly winds blowing the red tide back off shore.

[Rainband]

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2005

...RECORD WARM AND DRY PATTERN MAY SOON GET A BREAK...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE RECORD WARM
`RAINY` SEASON ACROSS OUR FA...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT RELEASED THIS MORNING UNDER AWIPS PIL PNSTBW.

AS FOR THE START OF OCTOBER...SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM HAVE
PUSHED INLAND FROM THE E COAST...AND ARE NOW ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
STATE AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NRN ZONES ARE FALLING INTO SOME DRIER AIR...AND SHUD START TO
WEAKEN AS THEY GET TO THE WEST COAST. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME
TOMORROW AFTN AS LARGE SCALE PLAYERS WILL BE IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF NEW ENGLAND RIDGING SW INTO THE SE
U.S. AND TD 20...OR POSSIBLY STAN OR TAMMY OFF TO OUR SW.

WHAT MAY HELP OUT OUR DRY PATTERN IS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY 700 MILES E OF THE BAHAMAS...MENTIONED IN LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK. NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ATTM AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE UNFAVORABLE...BUT NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVING IT OVER THE PENINSULA
ON MON. GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND JUST KEEPS IT AS AN OPEN
WAVE. PREFER THE GFS SOLN AS NAM HAS NOT DONE TOO WELL WITH THE
TROPICS THIS SEASON. EITHER WAY THOUGH...WE SHUD HAVE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THUS HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 40 PCT EVERYWHERE MON AFTN.
THIS VALUE IS A LITTLE ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE 60-80
POPS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED MON...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...DETAILS ARE VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN FOR THE BALANCE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE BIG PICTURE CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUATION...AND PERHAPS AN
INTENSIFICATION...OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HOW...AND WHEN...THE
EVENT PANS OUT IS STILL ANYBODY`S GUESS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD
A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...FIRST IN RESPONSE
TO WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LOW SLIDING FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN OR SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BY MIDWEEK...AND FINALLY IN
RESPONSE TO SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WHAT MAY
BE THE FIRST FULL LATITUDE (THOUGH MODEST) 500 MB TROUGH OF THE
YOUNG AUTUMN.

IN GENERAL...PERIOD OF MORE RAINS...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF US...WOULD BE AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING COMES INTO
PLAY. HOWEVER...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF TROPICAL/SYNOPTIC
HYBRID SETUP (NOTE: THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TD 20 BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST). BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF 20N LATITUDE IN OCTOBER ALWAYS BEARS WATCHING...SO STAY
TUNED!

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE ONLY TWEAKED THE GRIDS A LITTLE
THIS PACKAGE...RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND TWEAKING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE UNIFORM ACROSS
THE AREA GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW AND IN AND OUT CLOUDS. ALSO...HAVE
GONE JUST A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOT BY MUCH
AS WE`LL HAVE TIME TO HONE THE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THIS AFTN AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO THE
NORTH AND NEWLY FORMED TD 20 TO THE SOUTH. SCEC CONDITIONS OVER
OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SHUD CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
MAY GO LONGER DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF BUMPING WINDS UP THERE
UNTIL WE GET SOME HIGHER VALUES AT THE COASTAL STATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AT LEAST THRU SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF MODERATE TRANSPORT WINDS.
HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 91 75 90 / 20 20 20 40
FMY 74 91 73 90 / 20 40 20 40
GIF 75 90 73 89 / 20 30 20 40
SRQ 76 91 74 89 / 20 20 20 40
BKV 72 91 72 89 / 20 20 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM....BSG

[WeatherEmperor]

how long has that upper low been in that place for? how long does it usually take for an upper low to make it down to the surface?

<RICKY>

[CHRISTY]

nasa model develops this feature ! take a look i posted a link on the board!

[artist]

Ricky - seems it has been there for days now! lol

[vacanechaser]

GFS wants to bring it up the east coast to off Hatteras by next weekend.. Has been on it now for many runs of the model.. Some stronger, some weaker.. But the bulk of the globals were showing a threat to the southeast...

I mentioned that the GFS does develop a system in the Gulf near Florida as the first moves northeast away from North Carolina.. Needs to be watched as pressures are low in the Caribbean and gulf and will remain that way as has been the case most of the summer..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[hial2]

A Upper Level Low 700 miles east of the bahamas is headed
for SouthEast FL. Whether or not it works its way down to the surface and
develops is the big question.

It's filling in nicely this afternoon..Whether or not this means the beginning of going down to the surface I dont know.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[WeatherEmperor]

A Upper Level Low 700 miles east of the bahamas is headed
for SouthEast FL. Whether or not it works its way down to the surface and
develops is the big question.

It's filling in nicely this afternoon..Whether or not this means the beginning of going down to the surface I dont know.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

how does one determine if it is filling its way down to the surface?

<RICKY>

[Brent]

It bears watching, but development is not imminent. I suspect it'll just bring some rain to Florida.

[TampaFl]

It bears watching, but development is not imminent. I suspect it'll just bring some rain to Florida.

Should we issue a "Bear Watch"?? Seriously though, we could use the rain here in the Tampa Bay area after just coming off our hottest and driest summer on record.

Robert

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It bears watching, but development is not imminent. I suspect it'll just bring some rain to Florida.

Should we issue a "Bear Watch"?? Seriously though, we could use the rain here in the Tampa Bay area after just coming off our hottest and driest summer on record.

Robert

Yes! Rain would be great! Hopefully no strong winds though

[ronjon]

It bears watching, but development is not imminent. I suspect it'll just bring some rain to Florida.

Should we issue a "Bear Watch"?? Seriously though, we could use the rain here in the Tampa Bay area after just coming off our hottest and driest summer on record.

Robert

I think NWS Tampa issued a BEAR WATCH in this afternoons Disc

IN GENERAL...PERIOD OF MORE RAINS...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF US...WOULD BE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING COMES INTO PLAY. HOWEVER...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF TROPICAL/SYNOPTIC HYBRID SETUP (NOTE: THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TD 20 BUT DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST). BROAD LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF 20N LATITUDE IN OCTOBER ALWAYS BEARS WATCHING...SO STAY
TUNED!

[cjrciadt]

Were going to get more rain that is for sure by Tues/Wed, remember the Big "O" was only supposed to be tropical wave bringing moisture.

[Anthysteg]

It "bears" watching because obviously the convection is getting better every day plus dry air is minimal.



I'm not gonna wishcast. But if there is something i'd wishcast on it'd be the stop of the never ending "Who's first 19 or 20?" or these topics.