Tropical Depression 20,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

another thing with track is you always need to take into account the possibility of center relocation which has happened a lot this season with developing cyclones

Exactly......Cindy was in a similiar state and position when she crossed the Yuc and reformed her center further north and east afterwards.

oh ya, i didnt even think about cindy being in the same spot

[cajungal]

I almost forgot about Cindy! Even though we did not get much effects from her here in Terrebonne Parish. Just a little rain (but not much rain) and breezy conditions. I had to drive in Cindy since I did not get off work until 9. My car was shaking and tree limbs were falling all over. Lafourche Parish just to my east, got hit pretty good by Cindy.

[HurricaneGirl]

HOLY CRAP!!! There's ANOTHER ONE!!!

[Innotech]

this site just wouldnt be the same without the above poster

[cajungal]

Gosh, the boards is dead on Saturdays. Wake up people. LOL.

[Ivanhater]

Gosh, the boards is dead on Saturdays. Wake up people. LOL.

omg i know! we have like 5 areas to watch! lol

[krysof]

who ever said the season was dying

[KatDaddy]

No threat for the Upper TX Coast according to NWS.

From the latest Houston-Galveston AFD:

TROP DEPRESSION 20 HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE TROPICAL STORM STAN AND MOVE W-NW TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BE A THREAT TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

[Ivanhater]

No threat for the Upper TX Coast according to NWS.

From the latest Houston-Galveston AFD:

TROP DEPRESSION 20 HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE TROPICAL STORM STAN AND MOVE W-NW TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BE A THREAT TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

will they never learn?

[deltadog03]

thats a bold and maybe a dumb statement...I don't know how they can write this off right now...hmm...stupid

[perk]

KattDaddy i cannot stress this enough, take the Houston/Galveston discussion with a grain of salt. They said the very same thing about Rita, and they were stubborn about coming into line with what the NHC and other branches of the NWS were thinking regarding what turned out to be a huge track adjustment. They in my opinion are not on top of things.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thats a bold and maybe a dumb statement...I don't know how they can write this off right now...hmm...stupid

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Texas must watch td 20. There is a chance that a trough or
cold front could pull this slightly northward down the line. According to accuweather.com, temps in brownsville cool off by Wednesday, Indicative of a Cold Front Dropping South.
South Texas may see some rain to finally mitigate the drought there,
hopefully there will not be too much wind wherever this ends up,
but SSTs are high in the GOM.


Forecast:
I expect this system to start to turn more northerly in the extreme
Western GOM in response to a cold front. South Texas may see some
good rains. TD 20 will likely intensify as it crosses the W. GOM in response
to high ssts.

Given this information
Highest threat down the line would likely be for Northern Mexico
or extreme south Texas. My forecast is lots of rain for S. Texas from
whatever td20 becomes.

[cajungal]

I read on channel 4 New Orleans weather forums about it possible stalling in the BOC. Then, a front may come down and pull it northward.

[KatDaddy]

Yep Perk. I just post what they statement. I too have a hard time believing this will go W into Mexico this time of year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My forecast graphic for TD20:
Red= Hurricane
Green = Tropical Storm
Yellow = Depression

[Huckster]

Keith of 2000 was a bit further south than TD 20, but there is precedence for a storm this time of year staying well south of the U.S. and crossing into Mexico.

[perk]

Katdaddy i intended no disrespect to you in my previous post, and i know you only posted their exact words. I've been reading your posts for a while now and i truly value what you bring to this forum.

[KatDaddy]

I know Perk. No problem. I value everyone's posts. We just one big happy family

[ROCK]

KattDaddy i cannot stress this enough, take the Houston/Galveston discussion with a grain of salt. They said the very same thing about Rita, and they were stubborn about coming into line with what the NHC and other branches of the NWS were thinking regarding what turned out to be a huge track adjustment. They in my opinion are not on top of things.

I tend to agree to some extent given TD 20 has not even made it across the YUC, still organizing, has the possiblility of center reformation after this crossing, and the front progged for mid next week. Alot of variables to consider before making that statement,IMO. Maybe they are just playing it safe with all the Rita havoc of last week.

I remember 6 days out local tv met stating Rita was heading to MX and we were in the all clear. Boy, was he wrong.

[Portastorm]

KattDaddy i cannot stress this enough, take the Houston/Galveston discussion with a grain of salt. They said the very same thing about Rita, and they were stubborn about coming into line with what the NHC and other branches of the NWS were thinking regarding what turned out to be a huge track adjustment. They in my opinion are not on top of things.

I tend to agree to some extent given TD 20 has not even made it across the YUC, still organizing, has the possiblility of center reformation after this crossing, and the front progged for mid next week. Alot of variables to consider before making that statement,IMO. Maybe they are just playing it safe with all the Rita havoc of last week.

I remember 6 days out local tv met stating Rita was heading to MX and we were in the all clear. Boy, was he wrong.

Just about every GOM system this year has ended up making landfall further north/east than what was projected this far out. I don't buy the "straight west into the NE Mexico coast" line at all at this point. Too many things to be determined as several posters have outlined here.