Tropical Depression 20,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[DoctorHurricane2003]

:eek: HOLY CRAP!!! There's ANOTHER ONE!!!

[vaffie]

KattDaddy i cannot stress this enough, take the Houston/Galveston discussion with a grain of salt. They said the very same thing about Rita, and they were stubborn about coming into line with what the NHC and other branches of the NWS were thinking regarding what turned out to be a huge track adjustment. They in my opinion are not on top of things.

I tend to agree to some extent given TD 20 has not even made it across the YUC, still organizing, has the possiblility of center reformation after this crossing, and the front progged for mid next week. Alot of variables to consider before making that statement,IMO. Maybe they are just playing it safe with all the Rita havoc of last week.

I remember 6 days out local tv met stating Rita was heading to MX and we were in the all clear. Boy, was he wrong.

I agree--I would NEVER want to be north of a five-day slow-moving forecast with little if any model output at this time of year with the strongest cold front of the year poised to arrive in the area in five days. Now that it's stationary, the chance of it drifting or reforming north of it's current position is very high--and the farther north it goes, the farther north it will go. Also, guys, note that the 12Z GFS has a cyclonic loop in the Bay of Campeche too--it is still near Cancun in 6 days!

[perk]

Doc that's a good one, i'm on my way to Walmart soon.

[perk]

vaffie i totally agree, alot can happen in a short period of time this late in the season. A good example is the stall the NHC just reported.The Houston/Galveston NWS left no wiggle room in their discussion.

[thermos]

vaffie i totally agree, alot can happen in a short period of time this late in the season. A good example is the stall the NHC just reported.The Houston/Galveston NWS left no wiggle room in their discussion.

They are just full of hope I gues or maybe Texas Gov. Rick Perry ordered them to write it that way for fear of another Galveston/Houston evacuation that kills 70+ people.

[ronjon]

"I agree--I would NEVER want to be north of a five-day slow-moving forecast with little if any model output at this time of year with the strongest cold front of the year poised to arrive in the area in five days. Now that it's stationary, the chance of it drifting or reforming north of it's current position is very high--and the farther north it goes, the farther north it will go. Also, guys, note that the 12Z GFS has a cyclonic loop in the Bay of Campeche too--it is still near Cancun in 6 days!"

Taking a look at the recent 12Z globals, this thing is never gonna make it to mexico or TX. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET show a huge (and I mean huge) high pressure system building south through the middle of the country all the way down thru mexico, blocking any westward movement. These models now show the storm to stall in the BOC and start drifting east back toward the Yucatan or do a cyclonic loop back toward the east. The 12Z GFDL stalls the system in the BOC and then redevelops a tropical storm off the NE coast of the Yucatan heading north. Wow, if these models are any indication, its gonna be a wild week in the GOM!

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah that is a wild scenario.

<RICKY>

[rockyman]

First Vortex 18.8/86.8...well WSW of the most recent advisory (19.3/85.8)...let's see if the center really consolidate at this first vortex, or whether it shifts around for the next few hours.

[Ivanhater]

ok i just looked at the globals for myself and not one takes td20 into mexico or texas, they all stalled it and turned it north east or turned it back soutwest to some degree

[cajungal]

The thread is longer for TD 19 which is about gone and will stay out to sea. And hardly anyone is commenting that much on TD 20 because they all think it is a done deal into Mexico.

[Stratosphere747]

The thread is longer for TD 19 which is about gone and will stay out to sea. And hardly anyone is commenting that much on TD 20 because they all think it is a done deal into Mexico.

??

This just became a depression at 11, and as of now there are no real models. Kinda early in the game.

Scott

[Ivanhater]

The thread is longer for TD 19 which is about gone and will stay out to sea. And hardly anyone is commenting that much on TD 20 because they all think it is a done deal into Mexico.

look at all of these models....not 1 sends it to mexico...they all turn it back to the east to some degree

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[cajungal]

I can never understand those maps. Always too confusing for me. I like model runs better.

[AZS]

The thread is longer for TD 19 which is about gone and will stay out to sea. And hardly anyone is commenting that much on TD 20 because they all think it is a done deal into Mexico.

look at all of these models....not 1 sends it to mexico...they all turn it back to the east to some degree

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

What ?????

[Ivanhater]

the globals man the globals!

[Galvestongirl]

looks like the GFDL has it off the tip of the yucatan, hugging the coast.

[AZS]

:uarrow:

the globals man the globals!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_138.shtml

others


http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=20

and NHC

[Thunder44]

The thread is longer for TD 19 which is about gone and will stay out to sea. And hardly anyone is commenting that much on TD 20 because they all think it is a done deal into Mexico.

look at all of these models....not 1 sends it to mexico...they all turn it back to the east to some degree

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The NOGAPS looks it has it crossing the Yucatan and then sends to Central Mexico. The other models seem to have it hanging around the Yucatan for several days.

[Ivanhater]

you keep showing me non global models....go to the link i posted... and i said not 1 GLOBAL model has it hitting mexico!

[cajungal]

All the non global runs are running further south with each run.