Tropical Depression 19,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Windtalker1]

Here are the Sept Tracks for storms that form near Cape Verde Islands

[Windtalker1]

stupid question...how do i put a picture in my post from "my pictures" i saved?[/img]

I posted this tutorial a while ago. I hope you find it helpful. THANK YOU

Uploading is very simple, sometimes it may take a while to upload an image, and other times, a little over a few seconds. It just depends on your Internet connection and the size of the file.

First you need a website that will host it. I prefer free hosting sites. A few good ones are ImageShack and PhotoBucket.

ImageShack is very simple to use, absolutely no registration is required.

1. Hit the "Browse" button next to the text box.
2. Search for the image that you want to upload (most likely in "My Pictures" I'm guessing)
3. Now you are ready to upload, click "host it!".
4. You are now at a new page, right click on the text box that says "Thumbnail for forums (1)". Hit copy.
5. You are now ready to paste that into a post. Here's an example of what it will look like:



6. (Optional) If you want the image to be displayed with out the use of clicking on it and bringing up a new window, scroll down on the same page that was mentioned in Step 4. Right click on the text box that says "Hotlink for forums (1)". Hit copy, and the rest is the same as Step 5. It should look like this:



Now, PhotoBucket requires you to register. It is very simple and free. Uploading images to photobucket is just like uploading to ImageShack. The advantage here is that you can manage your uploaded photos, which I find very useful.

If none of the above satisfies you, you can always try some of the image hosting sites on the web from this link.

[JTD]

What does this mean from the 11 pm discussion:
AFTER 96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY FORM NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD
STEER IT MORE WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS
YET...BUT WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THIS
POSSIBILITY.

Everybody says it's a fish hands-down so it'll turn west for a while and then head out to sea again?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If the center is really north of the convection. Then the SAL/shear is doing what it has done to everything so far this season. This might be another tropical depression 10 or Iris

[Brent]

What does this mean from the 11 pm discussion:
AFTER 96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY FORM NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD
STEER IT MORE WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS
YET...BUT WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THIS
POSSIBILITY.

Everybody says it's a fish hands-down so it'll turn west for a while and then head out to sea again?

Most likely. It's so far east I'd be shocked if it made it all the way across this late in the season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The center has to be near 14 north for this not to be a tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS NEAR 13.3N 34.0W...OR 695 MILES
WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AT 01/0900 UTC AND IS
STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALED THE CENTER WAS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
TSTM ACTIVITY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 15.5N33W
10.5N34W. THERE IS A BANDING FEATURE TRYING TO FORM IN THE ERN
SEMICIRCLE COMPRISED OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 27W-31W. HOWEVER FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES
SUGGEST A SHEARED SYSTEM. SLOW INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE THE
BEST BET.

8 AM Discussion.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (AL192005) ON 20051001 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051001 1200 051002 0000 051002 1200 051003 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 33.7W 14.5N 34.4W 15.5N 35.2W 17.2N 36.2W
BAMM 13.8N 33.7W 14.8N 34.4W 16.2N 35.3W 18.0N 36.2W
A98E 13.8N 33.7W 14.8N 34.3W 15.7N 34.9W 16.8N 35.1W
LBAR 13.8N 33.7W 15.0N 34.0W 16.8N 34.6W 19.2N 35.3W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051003 1200 051004 1200 051005 1200 051006 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.3N 37.2W 24.7N 37.0W 28.1N 30.2W 24.5N 20.9W
BAMM 20.2N 37.0W 24.6N 37.3W 27.6N 36.3W 28.5N 34.7W
A98E 18.0N 35.5W 21.5N 34.3W 24.2N 32.8W 24.3N 28.6W
LBAR 22.1N 35.3W 26.9N 31.0W 27.1N 22.6W 26.8N 12.8W
SHIP 41KTS 36KTS 28KTS 21KTS
DSHP 41KTS 36KTS 28KTS 21KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 33.7W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 33.3W DIRM12 = 336DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 32.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Models.Still a TD according to the models.

[Hyperstorm]

...and will likely stay as a Tropical Depression for a while longer at the very least. In fact, satellite imagery this morning depicts an extremely disorganized system with no well-defined circulation center!

Yesterday, it was mentioned that there were some very unfavorable atmospheric and environmental conditions north of the system. If it stayed far enough south where it was, there was more potential for some development. The system is drifting NW and upper-level winds and conditions are hostile. It also encountered a shot of dry air that has been impinging on it since early yesterday. In fact, its structure is about to be totally destroyed...There is just no well-defined low-level circulation. There are two vortices, but with no apparent well-defined features. One is located well north of the weakening convective mass near 15N, 34W. There is another broader vortex near 9N, 33W.

The system is extremely disorganized right now and wouldn't qualify as a TD right now. Don't be surprised if you see this being downgraded to a tropical WAVE again later today.

[Scorpion]

[cycloneye]

Agree Hyperstorm.That looks like a real mess and I dont see this becoming a storm unless it consolidates the convection with the low.In fact now 99L looks better than this TD right now.

[Thunder44]

Funny, Dvorak estimates give this a 2.5/2.5, which is a 40mph TS. It doesn't even look like it has a center anymore.

01/1200 UTC 13.9N 34.0W T2.5/2.5 19

[Derek Ortt]

I have no clue as to what SSD is thinking or on. Visible imagery shows absolutely no signs of a tropical cyclone anywhere, and convection is dissipating

[MiamiensisWx]

I think it might have been a tropical storm yesterday, when it was much better organized and had a big blow-up of convection and a good LLC. I think it we had a tropical storm yesterday.

Who agrees? I think it should have been upgraded to a tropical storm yesterday... it was looking too good to be a tropical depression. It even looked good on visible imagery.

[krysof]

If this never becomes a Tropical Storm now, they may upgrade it to a storm in the future because of yesterday when it looked really good.

[MiamiensisWx]

If this never becomes a Tropical Storm now, they may upgrade it to a storm in the future because of yesterday when it looked really good.

Yep, and they should... it almost surely was Stan yesterday. It was looking JUST TOO GOOD on visible and infra-red yesterday to be a tropical depression.

Don't know why the models and the NHC didn't upgrade it to a tropical storm yesterday...

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I guest that Answers the quastion. It is really is to unfaverable out there for development this year.

[deltadog03]

no storm...not gonna happen...bye bye td19...thanks for playing...see ya next year

[WeatherEmperor]

no storm...not gonna happen...bye bye td19...thanks for playing...see ya next year

yeah thats been the story most of the year for most waves coming off Africa. Look good one day and then dead the next.

<RICKY>