ivanhater wrote:you keep showing me non global models....go to the link i posted... and i said not 1 GLOBAL model has it hitting mexico!
GFS was on your link.
the others are based on the global.
Tropical Depression 20,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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Ivanhater
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AZS wrote:ivanhater wrote:you keep showing me non global models....go to the link i posted... and i said not 1 GLOBAL model has it hitting mexico!
GFS was on your link.
the others are based on the global.
let me put it in a simple way since your having a hard time understanding me....the cmc, gfdl, gfs, mm5fsu,nogaps(stalls and turns it due south) and ukm...all stall it and turn it back ...but if you want to keep showing me the bams and lbar go ahead, but im more inclined to believe the others
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WeatherEmperor
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ivanhater wrote:AZS wrote:ivanhater wrote:you keep showing me non global models....go to the link i posted... and i said not 1 GLOBAL model has it hitting mexico!
GFS was on your link.
the others are based on the global.
let me put it in a simple way since your having a hard time understanding me....the cmc, gfdl, gfs, mm5fsu,nogaps(stalls and turns it due south) and ukm...all stall it and turn it back ...but if you want to keep showing me the bams and lbar go ahead, but im more inclined to believe the others
I agree with you Ivanhater. The global models are indeed the way to go with this system.
<RICKY>
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mvtrucking
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deltadog03
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WeatherEmperor
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Given the recent vis, I would contend that 20 is indeed wrapping up rather quickly this afternoon. Though recon is out there now this might be the case that recon is out there to soon and only reporting TD 20 in its infant stage thus the lack of winds. Would be interesting to see buoy obs as the evening progresses.
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WeatherEmperor wrote:deltadog03 wrote:how about no development....15kt..SW Quad...not very strong...
yeah now that you mention it, not much in the way of winds. The NHC has kept it as a 35mph TD though. At least it confirms that there is some sort of closed low there.
<RICKY>
I think I'm gonna relax a little about this thing for the time being, but just the same way that the models can all suddenly have a big high over Mexico when they didn't a few hours previously, they can just as easily get rid of it in 12 hours too. They are not infallible by any means and can misunderstand things--for instance the fact that it hasn't moved much in 24 hours because it's center was consolidating might have been understood by those models as it's being blocked by a high that wasn't there before--and that it was going to get stronger over time--I mean, you can't explain something like that to a model. Besides, it's visible satellite picture is looking more and more impressive as the day goes on and looks like it's center is about finished consolidating now, and one never knows, a more northerly track which is more likely with a stronger system could allow it to leave that high to its south and move northwest towards the cold front, so I'm going to stay tuned just in case.
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WeatherEmperor
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Stratosphere747
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vaffie wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:deltadog03 wrote:how about no development....15kt..SW Quad...not very strong...
yeah now that you mention it, not much in the way of winds. The NHC has kept it as a 35mph TD though. At least it confirms that there is some sort of closed low there.
<RICKY>
I think I'm gonna relax a little about this thing for the time being, but just the same way that the models can all suddenly have a big high over Mexico when they didn't a few hours previously, they can just as easily get rid of it in 12 hours too. They are not infallible by any means and can misunderstand things--for instance the fact that it hasn't moved much in 24 hours because it's center was consolidating might have been understood by those models as it's being blocked by a high that wasn't there before--and that it was going to get stronger over time--I mean, you can't explain something like that to a model. Besides, it's visible satellite picture is looking more and more impressive as the day goes on and looks like it's center is about finished consolidating now, and one never knows, a more northerly track which is more likely with a stronger system could allow it to leave that high to its south and move northwest towards the cold front, so I'm going to stay tuned just in case.
Reading Stewart's discussion....They are having a hard time with any long term outlooks as well. Especially until the center actually defines itself.
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Ivanhater
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i think its reforming further north, closer to the northern part of the yucatan
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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Stratosphere747
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ivanhater wrote:i think its reforming further north, closer to the northern part of the yucatan
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Possible, the discussion did mention this. Latest recon may be indicating the same...
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mvtrucking
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Stratosphere747 wrote:ivanhater wrote:i think its reforming further north, closer to the northern part of the yucatan
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Possible, the discussion did mention this. Latest recon may be indicating the same...
Not sure if I am looking at that right ,but it seems to be just below 20N and 86W? Easier to see on the vis than the Infared.
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Stratosphere747
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mvtrucking wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:ivanhater wrote:i think its reforming further north, closer to the northern part of the yucatan
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Possible, the discussion did mention this. Latest recon may be indicating the same...
Not sure if I am looking at that right ,but it seems to be just below 20N and 86W? Easier to see on the vis than the Infared.
I use this site MV..
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html Zoomed in at 100%
Seems like there is almost two centers at times, one east of Belieze and another just to the ESE of Cozumel. Close to the area you mentioned.
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