Tropical Storm Otis,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxmann_91]

There was a hurricane that made landfall in San Diego right? On what year that unique event occured?

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No hurricane is on record as ever hitting the USA's West Coast, and meteorologists know of only one tropical storm that hit California as the 39 mph or faster winds needed to define it as a tropical storm.

California's one, confirmed tropcial storm came ashore near Long Beach in late September 1939 with 50 mph winds. Since this was before forecasters began naming storms, it has no formal name.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/whhcalif.htm

[cycloneye]

Ok a 50 mph tropical storm not a hurricane in 1939.Thank you for providing the answer.

[Hyperstorm]

October 2, 1858...San Diego Hurricane:

http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/relea ... -r501.html

[wxmann_91]

Ok a 50 mph tropical storm not a hurricane in 1939.Thank you for providing the answer.

You're welcome.

[wxmann_91]

October 2, 1858...San Diego Hurricane:

http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/relea ... -r501.html

WOW...I've never heard of this storm. OK then, cycloneye, here's the answer then. Sorry for the wrong info.

[Hyperstorm]

Don't want to stray off-topic, but since it was asked, here's a VERY detailed analysis of this unique system from Dr. Chris Landsea:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/ch ... andsea.pdf

[wxmann_91]

Otis visible from the Cabo San Lucus radar:

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

[JTD]

Wow. A hurricane hitting Southern California. That's amazing. If 1858 were to be repeated today in San Diego, it would be catastrophic.

Look at how much damage the pineapple express does.

[Brent]

How COULD a hurricane hit Southern California? The water's kinda chilly...

[f5]

Otis will probably become a cloud swirl your best chance for rain will be with those storm systems that come down off the gulf of alaska.

[fasterdisaster]

What about Hurricane Doreen in August 1977? Caused significant flooding in San Diego County and killed six people.

[Aslkahuna]

There is evidence of a Cat 1 hit in San Diego in October 1858 while LAX had a TS with 50 mph sustained winds in September 1939. That said, however, it's Southern AZ from Yuma to Douglas that's most likely to see an EPAC storm of TS intensity or higher. While we have not seen a hurricane we have seen storms with gusts over 75 mph both in Yuma and Sierra Vista. Kathleen was Yuma's strongest storm in 1977 and that storm finally dissipated in ID. Another strong storm in Yuma around that time period was Katrina in 1976. Here in SV we have seen winds gusting over 60 mph with three EPAC storms. One other point, moisture remnants of EPAC hurricanes can be very important rainmakers in SE CA/AZ/NM/TX even if no defined circulation center exists.

Steve

[cycloneye]

October 2, 1858...San Diego Hurricane:

http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/relea ... -r501.html

Thank you Hyperstorm for bringing that interesting analysis from Landsea.

[cycloneye]

18:00z Models for Otis.

[WindRunner]

NOGAPS . . .

[Brent]

NOGAPS . . .

There's always one crazy model each run.

[WindRunner]

Weakening pretty quickly now, not even supposed to be a TD at landfall now, and dissapated before it crosses the border.

WTPZ45 KNHC 021434
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM LO CABOS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IN FACT
HAS BECOME LIMITED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...AND OTIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND
AND WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.0N 111.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 23.7N 112.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 112.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 113.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 112.9W 20 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED