Which TD will be Stan??

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Which TD will be Stan?

Poll ended at Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:38 am

TD19
15
22%
TD20
46
69%
None will Develop into Stan
6
9%
 
Total votes: 67
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fasterdisaster
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Which TD will be Stan??

#1 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:38 am

I think 20 will Stan, but 19 will eventually become Tammy.
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#2 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:39 am

Can a mod add "neither will develop" please?
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cycloneye
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:42 am

fasterdisaster wrote:Can a mod add "neither will develop" please?


Added that option.
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#4 Postby Innotech » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:43 am

20 will develop. Im pretty certain of that.
19 will very likely sputter and die.
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#5 Postby quandary » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:55 am

Looks like if 19 doesn't develop into Stan now, it'll just die a quick miserable death.
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MiamiensisWx

#6 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:58 am

I think TD 19 became Stan yesterday. It was looking stellar yesterday.
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#7 Postby JTD » Sat Oct 01, 2005 12:00 pm

Without a doubt, TD #20 will become Stan before #19 does if either do.
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#8 Postby audioslave8 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 12:34 pm

looks like TD 20. Both look very disorganized. TD 19 has lost all its deep thunderstorms and looks very ragged getting sheered apart out in the deep Atlantic. I dont think it will get that much healthier than it is right now. I would put my bet on TD 20 if anything develops from these depressions. Here is why??? WTNT35 KNHC 011742
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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#9 Postby arkess7 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:02 pm

i think we shall find out in a couple days
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#10 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:04 pm

I say TD19, as they will end up upgrading them on the same advisory.
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#11 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:07 pm

TD20 will be Stan much easier. TD19 looks very pathetic right now and wouldnt surprise me if it is downgraded later on.

<RICKY>
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#12 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 01, 2005 4:07 pm

TD 20... I'm beginning to wonder if TD 19 will EVER be a tropical storm.
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2005 4:16 pm

Brent wrote:TD 20... I'm beginning to wonder if TD 19 will EVER be a tropical storm.


Well Brent read the discussion as it might.
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#14 Postby Swimdude » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:04 pm

Voted TD20.
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#15 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:49 pm

Now I'm wondering if TD 20 will be a tropical storm. :roll: Going very slowly across the Yucatan isn't exactly good for it to survive.
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#16 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:51 pm

Tropical depression 19 looks better then LEE right now. The LLC is inline with the convection. But when you live in die by t numbers its pretty hard.

As for 20. I think they will likely find a tropical storm if recon can get there.
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#17 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 01, 2005 9:58 pm

I think they are both tropical storms right now. If not, then VERY close.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#18 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:00 pm

I agree.
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#19 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:07 pm

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


If you look at them 19 look much stronger then 20. 19 has inlined convection with its LLC. The shear doe's not look that strong at this moment over it.
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#20 Postby tornadochaser86 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:39 pm

td 19 td 20s still lokking very disorganized
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