Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[JTD]

...TROPICAL STORM STAN FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

AT ABOUT 120 AM CDT... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY HAD INCREASED TO 45 MPH. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STAN... THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. STAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[wxmann_91]

Hola Stan! Como estas?

[audioslave8]

Stan would become a bigger man if he moved farther north and not want to stop and vacation and have some cocktails in the Yucutan.

[tornadochaser86]

wow stan i didnt think u could pull it off and beat td 19 but u did u DA MAN

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Stan the Man- since it's staying nice and weak...

[cycloneye]

Jason the thread will remain open even if it weakens to a depression as it crosses the Yucatan because it will be a storm again once it hits the water.

For the updated information simply go to the last two pages of this thread and you will see the latest.For example if this thread is at page 34 you go to pages 33 and 34 to see the latest and doing it that way you dont have to go thru all the pages from page one.

[skysummit]

Cool Stan! Congratulations! Now, just stay weak and don't bother too many people.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM STAN (AL202005) ON 20051002 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051002 1200 051003 0000 051003 1200 051004 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 87.7W 20.5N 89.6W 21.0N 91.3W 21.2N 93.1W
BAMM 19.7N 87.7W 20.6N 89.8W 21.2N 91.6W 21.4N 93.3W
A98E 19.7N 87.7W 20.1N 88.8W 20.7N 90.1W 21.2N 91.8W
LBAR 19.7N 87.7W 20.5N 89.5W 21.4N 91.3W 22.1N 93.4W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 54KTS 64KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051004 1200 051005 1200 051006 1200 051007 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.1N 95.0W 20.9N 99.1W 21.1N 103.4W 21.8N 106.9W
BAMM 21.4N 95.2W 21.3N 99.4W 21.3N 103.8W 22.0N 107.6W
A98E 21.5N 94.2W 22.4N 99.1W 23.1N 103.5W 24.7N 106.0W
LBAR 22.7N 95.5W 23.9N 99.3W 25.2N 101.6W 25.4N 102.5W
SHIP 73KTS 89KTS 97KTS 99KTS
DSHP 59KTS 74KTS 43KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 87.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 86.7W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 85.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Model Guidance

[cycloneye]

I put the word Depression in the title of thread as it will be one today but as soon it becomes a storm again that word goes.

[beachbum_al]

See I go to sleep and looks what happens. Maybe I need to stay up all night except I don't think I would do very well at my job.

[skysummit]

Pretty good consensus I'd say...
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/4562/al2020054qq.jpg

[WindRunner]

I don't know, CLIPER might have something there . . .

[cjrciadt]

[cjrciadt]

[vaffie]

For what it's worth, this morning's Dallas and Little Rock Forecast discussions are talking about a slower front than had been predicted. A slower front will mean a slower and potentially weaker high moving south to block and push Stan southwest. This will mean a possible increase in latitude, and so the next few model runs may start shifting north slowly, aside from the fact that it's moving 290 at last check compared to 285. Anyway, I have no idea. We'll see.
For example:
From Little Rock:THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A LITTLE ABOUT WEDNESDAY AS A
TROF SHARPENS IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. APPEARS THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUN IS SLOWING THE
FRONT A LITTLE AND THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADJUSTED POP AND WIND GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

[Air Force Met]

I don't know, CLIPER might have something there . . .

The clipper is a climo model. It does not take anything into account regarding current steering flows. That's why it should ALWAYS be ignored for tracking purposes.

[Starburst]

For what it's worth, this morning's Dallas and Little Rock Forecast discussions are talking about a slower front than had been predicted. A slower front will mean a slower and potentially weaker high moving south to block and push Stan southwest. This will mean a possible increase in latitude, and so the next few model runs may start shifting north slowly, aside from the fact that it's moving 290 at last check compared to 285. Anyway, I have no idea. We'll see.
For example:
From Little Rock:THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A LITTLE ABOUT WEDNESDAY AS A
TROF SHARPENS IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. APPEARS THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUN IS SLOWING THE
FRONT A LITTLE AND THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADJUSTED POP AND WIND GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

Cold front is not suppose to be down this way until Thursday now per NWS

[skysummit]

That must be one potent cold front! Our local weather has us at 57 for a low on October 7! Get out the jackets!!!

[Starburst]

LOL Skysummit you are right for us it is a blue norther!!!

[WindRunner]

I don't know, CLIPER might have something there . . .

The clipper is a climo model. It does not take anything into account regarding current steering flows. That's why it should ALWAYS be ignored for tracking purposes.

I guess I should make sarcasm slightly more obivous next time.