00Z CMC - Very Bad for West Coast of Florida

[ronjon]

Take a look at the 00Z CMC. It develops a closed circulation off the SW coast of FL and deepens it while moving north along the west coast of FL. Definitely do not want to see that scenario unfolding in early October.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[linkerweather]

As a tropical wave crosses florida, it looks like it may get caught up in the East GOM. As seen by several posts here, some of the global models indicatre that as a cold front stalls north of florida, it may keep that area of lower pressure in the EGOM and eventually move it NE across Florida. To what extent? Thats hard to envision at this point. That 00z CMC run seems rather quick on the sfc low development. I wouldn't doubt it off the SE coast after passing florida but we shall see.

[caneman]

As a tropical wave crosses florida, it looks like it may get caught up in the East GOM. As seen by several posts here, some of the global models indicatre that as a cold front stalls north of florida, it may keep that area of lower pressure in the EGOM and eventually move it NE across Florida. To what extent? Thats hard to envision at this point. That 00z CMC run seems rather quick on the sfc low development. I wouldn't doubt it off the SE coast after passing florida but we shall see.

Hey Link. I watch you here locally you do a good job. Glad to see you on here and here your opinions.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Take a look at the 00Z CMC. It develops a closed circulation off the SW coast of FL and deepens it while moving north along the west coast of FL. Definitely do not want to see that scenario unfolding in early October.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

If this panned out I would see a lot of damage...

[WindRunner]

Wow . . . riding up the coast through Tampa and Savannah and the Outer Banks then Norfolk, all the while it's deepening. Seems a little unlikely if you ask me, though it could happen.

Also interesting to note that it develops another circulation either in front of TD19 or from TD19 itself that gets pulled into the storm. Either way, it shows two storms in the central Atlantic with this development absorbing one of them.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 020700
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NE AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM STAN MOVES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
APPROACHES THE EASTERN FL COAST BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALLOW NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPS
TO COOL OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES. STILL KEEPING ONLY SCATTERED CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE NAM STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST
THAN THE GFS. WILL SEE HOW THIS RESOLVES WITH THE FUTURE RUNS TO SEE
WHERE AND IF WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT LOWER FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S TO UPPER 80S BY
TUESDAY AND LOWS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WITH THE MOISTURE AND RAIN IN PLACE. MODERATE E/NE WINDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
WET PATTERN THRU THE PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE TUT LOW MOVES FROM THE N CARIB INTO
THE E GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SFC REFLECTION TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AS WELL. BOTH FEATURES THEN STALL IN THE
EASTERN GULF THRU MID WEEK. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WETTER EASTERN
SIDE OF WAVE WITH UPPER SUPPORT TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL DIURNAL SCT
POPS. TROUGHINESS TO SET UP AND DEEPEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THRU THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS EXPECTED TO PUSH TROPICAL FEATURES BACK OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
LATE WEEK INTO SAT AGAIN KEEPING POPS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DAYTIME TEMPS TO HOLD
NEAR CLIMO WITH OVERNIGHT MIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE E/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AND A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC BY MID-WEEK. THE CURRENT
SCEC IN PLACE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK
WITH WINDS AT 15-20KTS...BUT SEAS SLOWER TO RESPOND AND STILL IN THE
3-5FT RANGE. WILL KEEP THE SCEC IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO SEE IF ANYTHING MORE
WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

[O Town]

Let just hope for something minimal, if anything at all. Deffinatley will be watching this. Im getting a bad vibe. Lets hope it is a false alarm.

[linkerweather]

As a tropical wave crosses florida, it looks like it may get caught up in the East GOM. As seen by several posts here, some of the global models indicatre that as a cold front stalls north of florida, it may keep that area of lower pressure in the EGOM and eventually move it NE across Florida. To what extent? Thats hard to envision at this point. That 00z CMC run seems rather quick on the sfc low development. I wouldn't doubt it off the SE coast after passing florida but we shall see.

Hey Link. I watch you here locally you do a good job. Glad to see you on here and here your opinions.

Caneman, I appreciate it. I enjoy this board. I must say it is often the starting point for some quick research I do. Folks here provide great links to bookmark for future stuff

[Hyperstorm]

According to the Canadian, it appears that if anything develops it won't be completely tropical. It shows a very broad area of low pressure in the grids, which leads me to believe that this could either be a hybrid system or a frontal low.

We'll see how this solution pans out...

[ameriwx2003]

the 06Z GFS is starting to come onboard with developing that Tropical Wave once it gets into the SE Gulf of Mexico.. Its starting to look like Florida could be in for a wet and Stormy week ahead.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[floridahurricaneguy]

Deffnitely something to watch. Heck just give me a moderate TS that will get me one day off. I am doing a hurricane/tropical storm research project that involves me going through Hurricane/TS. Just been waiting for something close.

Matt

[Brent]

Charley was an October-like scenario(massive cold front, pushed it NE).

Thought ya'll would like to know.

[arkess7]

oh great

[no advance]

Matt be careful Tampa is not a kind of place to weather the storm.

[Rainband]

Matt be careful Tampa is not a kind of place to weather the storm.

Yeah... up the coast..the topography of the GOM coastline ,would prove disasterous stormsurge flooding from a system moving NE

[brunota2003]

Maybe the name Tammy is a bad name after all? It seems so gentle, now I'm starting to get worryed, it deepens right before it makes landfall here in NC, then it slows over us while continuing to deepen :0

[Rainband]

Only one model as far as I know is showing this. Trends will tell the tale. Watch and wait.

[brunota2003]

yea, well the scaryest part is the fact that the NHC said this at 11:30: A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS CENTERED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

[no advance]

Not only storm surge. Crime.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Not only storm surge. Crime.

Oh yea with looting and everything that follows a hurricane
disaster.

Well I'd go get some weapons to protect my home from looting of non-essential goods. If someone wants food or water I'd let them have it,
but if someone is trying to take my TV or laptop, that's a different
story.