Tropical Depression 19 Advisories=11 AM=Last Advisorie

[arlwx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST WESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
SOME DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CENTER... BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN
BOTH DEPTH AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
06Z REMAINED 30 KT... AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE
SHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS 33 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS... AND THERE
IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS... BUT PROBABLY JUST BARELY IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL. THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY GET STRONGER AND THE SSTS
GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36
HOURS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR
GFS AGREES ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 72
HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT NOT
VERY QUICKLY DUE TO LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 16.0N 34.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 17.2N 35.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 18.9N 36.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 36.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 22.3N 36.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 25.5N 36.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 34.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 31.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2005

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATING...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS
DISSPATING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 780 MILES...1250 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.0 N... 35.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[skysummit]

Bye Bye 19...you had a nice run.

[Anthysteg]

Can someone say TD 10 story?



Don't be surprised, cause I won't be.

[cycloneye]

Bye 19.

[Andrew92]

Ba-bye TD #19!

[WeatherEmperor]

thanx for wasting our time buddy!

<RICKY>