East of Bahamas,East GOM Possible Developments Thread
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hurricanedude
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brunota2003
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cycloneye
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bvigal wrote:Actually, this type of weather is, for us, more normal for mid October thru November - our true rainy season. If forced to draw any conclusions from today's tstorms and rain coming in from the north, it would be that perhaps we will have an early winter... that would be SWEET!!
Yes today it has been a cool day for Puerto Rico meaning temps in the low 80's not in the high 80's to low 90's.
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beginning to concern me as well - seems to be trying to get its act together and if it lingers in that immediate area seems the TWO outlook thinks the conditions will improve for it -
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS CENTERED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS CENTERED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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WeatherEmperor
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Looking at visible and radar loops, I've noticed some slight cyclonic turning around 19/65.5...it appears to be in the mid-levels...the low level clouds are still moving from E to W...this area should be visible on PR radar throughout the rest of today.
The shear is around 20kts in this area...and it looks like the shear is even worse to the west...so the swirl will probably fall apart before it can become established
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
The shear is around 20kts in this area...and it looks like the shear is even worse to the west...so the swirl will probably fall apart before it can become established
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
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cycloneye
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A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LINE FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 15N60W...NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 29N72W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N58W 22N65W
30N71W.
2 PM Discussion about the western atlantic area of interest of this thread.Not much in that discussion to open eyebrows.
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 15N60W...NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 29N72W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N58W 22N65W
30N71W.
2 PM Discussion about the western atlantic area of interest of this thread.Not much in that discussion to open eyebrows.
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WeatherEmperor
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cycloneye wrote:A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LINE FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 15N60W...NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 29N72W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N58W 22N65W
30N71W.
2 PM Discussion about the western atlantic area of interest of this thread.Not much in that discussion to open eyebrows.
Actually, my eyebrows are little more open because the turning I see on radar and satellite must be close to the surface (because a "surface trough has developed")...I think this is a big step toward future development.
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WeatherEmperor
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rockyman wrote:cycloneye wrote:A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LINE FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 15N60W...NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 29N72W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N58W 22N65W
30N71W.
2 PM Discussion about the western atlantic area of interest of this thread.Not much in that discussion to open eyebrows.
Actually, my eyebrows are little more open because the turning I see on radar and satellite must be close to the surface (because a "surface trough has developed")...I think this is a big step toward future development.
Which radar are you looking at? Can I see it?
<RICKY>
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inotherwords
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I've moved this newbie question to a different thread. 
Last edited by inotherwords on Sun Oct 02, 2005 5:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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cinlfla
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i agree big flare up with this wave! i htink it has a good chance!opinions!
Christy I noticed that you post are starting to get some comments and some not so nice, You just keep posting your little heart out. If you see convection flaring and post it thats your opinion and are intitled to it.
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cycloneye
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rockyman wrote:cycloneye wrote:A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LINE FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 15N60W...NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 29N72W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N58W 22N65W
30N71W.
2 PM Discussion about the western atlantic area of interest of this thread.Not much in that discussion to open eyebrows.
Actually, my eyebrows are little more open because the turning I see on radar and satellite must be close to the surface (because a "surface trough has developed")...I think this is a big step toward future development.
What I mean by not open eyebrows is that they dont mention a surface low as of yet in the area but yes that surface trough formation may be the early stages for something more in the next few days.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
PR Long Range Radar Loop:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml
The turning is not very evident yet, so you'll have to speed up the loop and look to the NE of PR....earlier today, these storms were all moving directly to the west...now they are starting to slow down and turn back toward the east
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml
The turning is not very evident yet, so you'll have to speed up the loop and look to the NE of PR....earlier today, these storms were all moving directly to the west...now they are starting to slow down and turn back toward the east
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cycloneye wrote:rockyman wrote:cycloneye wrote:A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LINE FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 15N60W...NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 29N72W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N58W 22N65W
30N71W.
2 PM Discussion about the western atlantic area of interest of this thread.Not much in that discussion to open eyebrows.
Actually, my eyebrows are little more open because the turning I see on radar and satellite must be close to the surface (because a "surface trough has developed")...I think this is a big step toward future development.
What I mean by not open eyebrows is that they dont mention a surface low as of yet in the area but yes that surface trough formation may be the early stages for something more in the next few days.
I agree, Luis,...It doesn't take much to open my eyebrows these days! My wife thinks that every time the wind blows our house here on Dauphin Island is going to finish collapsing (Katrina took the new metal roof and the south half of the building).
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cycloneye wrote:bvigal wrote:Actually, this type of weather is, for us, more normal for mid October thru November - our true rainy season. If forced to draw any conclusions from today's tstorms and rain coming in from the north, it would be that perhaps we will have an early winter... that would be SWEET!!
Yes today it has been a cool day for Puerto Rico meaning temps in the low 80's not in the high 80's to low 90's.
It's the same here. It's been raining on and off all day with thunderstorms. It's been a light steady rain, not a hard torrential rain. I think we have had abotu 1 inch so far.. not so much.
The temperature is about 78 degrees.....also a cool day for us.
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Too many hurricanes to remember
Melbourne AFD
987 FXUS62 KMLB 021904 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 300 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005
DISCUSSION DEEP ONSHORE FLOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING BUT FAST WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR IS LIGHTING UP WITH SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE ATLC WATERS AFTER A CLIMATOLOGICAL MID DAY LULL. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING OVER THE INTERIOR MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE DRAWN 30% POPS FOR THE COAST AND 20% INTERIOR OVERNIGHT WITH WARM MINS NEAR 80 ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW... DROPPING TO MID 70S INTERIOR COUNTIES. MONDAY LOOKS A LOT LIKE TODAY WITH BREEZY/GUSTY EAST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS RACING ONSHORE. STAYED CLOSE TO GFS MOS POPS (~40%). RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST MAY BE HIGHER DURING THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE MID DAY. POPS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS LOOK FAIRLY EQUITABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER (AS IT WAS TODAY) SO WILL KEEP IT PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MON NGT/TUE...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING AN EASTERLY WAVE AND UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH S FL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE WEST POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A CLOSED SFC LOW OFF THE SW FL COAST LATE TUE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GFS MODEL ANALYSIS REVEALS SYSTEM REMAINS COLD CORE AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...SUGGESTING SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE SUBTROPICAL OR A HYBRID. IN ANY EVENT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PINCHED NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE ATLC WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ONSHORE LATE MON NGT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES AND GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE. CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TUE WITH BEACH EROSION AND HIGH AND ROUGH SURF POUNDING THE BEACHES. BEACH/DUNE AREAS THAT WERE ERODED DURING OPHELIA A FEW WEEKS AGO WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL EROSION TUE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY RANGE. WED...12Z NAM/GFS INDICATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE ERN GULF. WINDS LOCALLY WILL VEER TO THE SE WITH CONTINUED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL POPS IN THE 50-60 PCT RANGE. THU/FRI...GFS FCSTS SYSTEM IN THE GULF TO DRIFT WEST TO AROUND 90 WEST WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE ERN CUBA AND THE SE GULF TWD THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS AT LEAST 50 PCT WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY BANDS THAT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. SAT/SUN...ADVANCING L/W TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SE STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE NE ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN SFC CYCLOGENESIS MAY BE OFF THE MID ATLC BUT GFS ALSO HINTS AT SOME ENERGY BEING PULLED NE OUT THE ERN GULF. FRONT SHOULD PUSH CLEANLY THROUGH THE MID ATLC BY SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA FOR DAY7 WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. THIS SPELLS MORE WET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARINE BUOY 009 WINDS HOLDING JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS BUT SEAS HAVE COME UP TO 7 FT. GRADIENT WILL GET EVEN TIGHTER NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SO HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY THRU TUE EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT AT LEAST FOR SEAS. WINDS SHOULD PEAK ON TUE AS GRADIENT IS TIGHTENED AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS S FL. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 9-12 FT BY TUE...WITH LARGE COMBINED SEAS MAKING NAVIGATION NEAR INLETS DIFFICULT FOR SMALL CRAFT. FLOW WILL VEER TO SE BY LATE WEEK WITH SEAS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 5-7 FT IN AN EAST SWELL BY THU. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVIATION FAST MOVING SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND SPREADING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VCSH IN TAFS AND FOREGO TEMPO GROUPS. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS DAB 77 87 78 83 / 30 40 50 60 MCO 74 88 75 86 / 20 40 40 60 MLB 79 87 80 84 / 30 40 50 70 VRB 79 87 80 84 / 30 40 50 70 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60NM THROUGH TUE EVENING. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DISCUSSION DEEP ONSHORE FLOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING BUT FAST WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR IS LIGHTING UP WITH SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE ATLC WATERS AFTER A CLIMATOLOGICAL MID DAY LULL. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING OVER THE INTERIOR MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE DRAWN 30% POPS FOR THE COAST AND 20% INTERIOR OVERNIGHT WITH WARM MINS NEAR 80 ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW... DROPPING TO MID 70S INTERIOR COUNTIES. MONDAY LOOKS A LOT LIKE TODAY WITH BREEZY/GUSTY EAST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS RACING ONSHORE. STAYED CLOSE TO GFS MOS POPS (~40%). RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST MAY BE HIGHER DURING THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE MID DAY. POPS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS LOOK FAIRLY EQUITABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER (AS IT WAS TODAY) SO WILL KEEP IT PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MON NGT/TUE...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING AN EASTERLY WAVE AND UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH S FL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE WEST POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A CLOSED SFC LOW OFF THE SW FL COAST LATE TUE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GFS MODEL ANALYSIS REVEALS SYSTEM REMAINS COLD CORE AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...SUGGESTING SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE SUBTROPICAL OR A HYBRID. IN ANY EVENT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PINCHED NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE ATLC WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ONSHORE LATE MON NGT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES AND GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE. CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TUE WITH BEACH EROSION AND HIGH AND ROUGH SURF POUNDING THE BEACHES. BEACH/DUNE AREAS THAT WERE ERODED DURING OPHELIA A FEW WEEKS AGO WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL EROSION TUE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY RANGE. WED...12Z NAM/GFS INDICATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE ERN GULF. WINDS LOCALLY WILL VEER TO THE SE WITH CONTINUED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL POPS IN THE 50-60 PCT RANGE. THU/FRI...GFS FCSTS SYSTEM IN THE GULF TO DRIFT WEST TO AROUND 90 WEST WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE ERN CUBA AND THE SE GULF TWD THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS AT LEAST 50 PCT WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY BANDS THAT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. SAT/SUN...ADVANCING L/W TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SE STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE NE ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN SFC CYCLOGENESIS MAY BE OFF THE MID ATLC BUT GFS ALSO HINTS AT SOME ENERGY BEING PULLED NE OUT THE ERN GULF. FRONT SHOULD PUSH CLEANLY THROUGH THE MID ATLC BY SUNDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA FOR DAY7 WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. THIS SPELLS MORE WET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARINE BUOY 009 WINDS HOLDING JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS BUT SEAS HAVE COME UP TO 7 FT. GRADIENT WILL GET EVEN TIGHTER NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SO HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY THRU TUE EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT AT LEAST FOR SEAS. WINDS SHOULD PEAK ON TUE AS GRADIENT IS TIGHTENED AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS S FL. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 9-12 FT BY TUE...WITH LARGE COMBINED SEAS MAKING NAVIGATION NEAR INLETS DIFFICULT FOR SMALL CRAFT. FLOW WILL VEER TO SE BY LATE WEEK WITH SEAS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 5-7 FT IN AN EAST SWELL BY THU. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVIATION FAST MOVING SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND SPREADING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VCSH IN TAFS AND FOREGO TEMPO GROUPS. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS DAB 77 87 78 83 / 30 40 50 60 MCO 74 88 75 86 / 20 40 40 60 MLB 79 87 80 84 / 30 40 50 70 VRB 79 87 80 84 / 30 40 50 70 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60NM THROUGH TUE EVENING. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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WeatherEmperor
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KEY WEST AFD---MODELS PREDICT GULF STORM
455 FXUS62 KEYW 021920 CCA AFDEYW FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 300 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005
DISCUSSION CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM STAN IS CROSSING THE YUCATAN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE ERN US. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO IS CREATING EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN BAHAMAS...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON ITS EAST SIDE OVER THE STRAITS. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES...SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TORTUGAS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO STAN. FORECAST STAN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT MOVES WEST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EVEN AFTER IT PASSES...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE MAINLY TO THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE TROF OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE IT...WITH NAM BRINGING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SRN FL ON TUESDAY...AND SPINNING IT UP INTO A HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF ON THURSDAY. GFS/UKMET/ECMF ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FEATURE AND ONLY BRING AN OPEN WAVE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SRN FL ON TUESDAY...BUT THEY DO GENERATE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY...THE TIMING...STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE KEYS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. GIVEN THE NAM TENDENCY TO EXAGGERATE TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR...WILL STAY WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WINDS WILL RELAX LATE TONIGHT. ALL MODELS AGREE ON DRYING ABOVE 700 MB ON THE WEST SIDE OF THAT BAHAMA LOW...BUT LITTLE EVIDENCE OF IT IS SEEN ON THE MYNN SOUNDING OR ON WATER VAPOR. WILL KEEP POPS UP TONIGHT...BUT LET THEM DOWN A BIT TOMORROW. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POPS INCREASE...BUT WINDS STAY LOW AS AXIS OF INCOMING TROF MOVES ACROSS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ASSUMING THE TROF DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WEST OF THE KEYS...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS EAST SIDE WILL PULL MOISTURE OUT OF THE CARIB AND ACROSS CUBA...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK AND INCREASING WINDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LOT DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF WHATEVER DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SURFACE TROF AFTER IT PASSES US. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECREASING WINDS AND RAIN FOR THESE TWO DAYS. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH THE SCEC CONTINUING FOR THE GULF AND BAY WATERS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...SO THE SCEC/SCA COULD BE DROPPED AT NEXT UPDATE. THE WINDS WILL DROP EVEN MORE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROF NEARS...BUT PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTER IT PASSES. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVIATION A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE YUCATAN AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NEAR 15 KNOT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE WITH ABUNDANT LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. WIDELY SCATTERED FAST MOVING SHOWERS...WITH FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIAMI TO KEY WEST FLIGHT ROUTE. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEYS TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS CAN PRODUCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS KEY WEST 79/88/79/88/79 50/40/40/50/50 MARATHON 80/89/80/89/80 50/40/40/50/50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NONE. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PUBLIC/MARINE..........STRAHAN AVIATION/NOWCASTS......DAIDA
DISCUSSION CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM STAN IS CROSSING THE YUCATAN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE ERN US. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO IS CREATING EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN BAHAMAS...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON ITS EAST SIDE OVER THE STRAITS. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES...SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TORTUGAS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO STAN. FORECAST STAN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT MOVES WEST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EVEN AFTER IT PASSES...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE MAINLY TO THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE TROF OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE IT...WITH NAM BRINGING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SRN FL ON TUESDAY...AND SPINNING IT UP INTO A HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF ON THURSDAY. GFS/UKMET/ECMF ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FEATURE AND ONLY BRING AN OPEN WAVE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SRN FL ON TUESDAY...BUT THEY DO GENERATE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY...THE TIMING...STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE KEYS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. GIVEN THE NAM TENDENCY TO EXAGGERATE TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR...WILL STAY WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WINDS WILL RELAX LATE TONIGHT. ALL MODELS AGREE ON DRYING ABOVE 700 MB ON THE WEST SIDE OF THAT BAHAMA LOW...BUT LITTLE EVIDENCE OF IT IS SEEN ON THE MYNN SOUNDING OR ON WATER VAPOR. WILL KEEP POPS UP TONIGHT...BUT LET THEM DOWN A BIT TOMORROW. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POPS INCREASE...BUT WINDS STAY LOW AS AXIS OF INCOMING TROF MOVES ACROSS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ASSUMING THE TROF DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WEST OF THE KEYS...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS EAST SIDE WILL PULL MOISTURE OUT OF THE CARIB AND ACROSS CUBA...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK AND INCREASING WINDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LOT DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF WHATEVER DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SURFACE TROF AFTER IT PASSES US. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECREASING WINDS AND RAIN FOR THESE TWO DAYS. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH THE SCEC CONTINUING FOR THE GULF AND BAY WATERS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...SO THE SCEC/SCA COULD BE DROPPED AT NEXT UPDATE. THE WINDS WILL DROP EVEN MORE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROF NEARS...BUT PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTER IT PASSES. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVIATION A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE YUCATAN AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NEAR 15 KNOT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE WITH ABUNDANT LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. WIDELY SCATTERED FAST MOVING SHOWERS...WITH FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIAMI TO KEY WEST FLIGHT ROUTE. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEYS TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS CAN PRODUCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS KEY WEST 79/88/79/88/79 50/40/40/50/50 MARATHON 80/89/80/89/80 50/40/40/50/50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NONE. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PUBLIC/MARINE..........STRAHAN AVIATION/NOWCASTS......DAIDA
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