How many times have we seen the GFS hint at 'something' developing 94 hours out...I wouldn't be at all surprised if it drops this possible development on the next run.
If every 1000mb storm was called a monster, what would you call a 900mb storm?
What have we here?--(old title: Monster in the making?)
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SamSagnella
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MiamiensisWx
SamSagnella wrote:How many times have we seen the GFS hint at 'something' developing 94 hours out...I wouldn't be at all surprised if it drops this possible development on the next run.
If every 1000mb storm was called a monster, what would you call a 900mb storm?
I would call it a TRUE monster storm...
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cycloneye
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
353 PM AST SUN OCT 2 2005
WORTH MENTIONING...BUT STILL LOW ON THE SCALE OF PROBABILITY...IS
THE SWIRL OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED OFF OF AFRICA A WHILE AGO AND IS
NOW NEAR 23 WEST SOUTH OF 16 NORTH. THE GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS...DEVELOPS A CIRCULATION...AND BRINGS IT TO 8 NORTH AND 40 WEST
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND TO 13 NORTH 54 WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THAT POINT IT IS PRESUMABLY A TROPICAL STORM OR BETTER AND IT DRIVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. IN
THIS WAY IT APPEARS TO MISS THE LOCAL AREA ALTOGETHER. THIS SCENARIO
LOOKS FINE...IF IT CAN GET TOGETHER IN THE FIRST PLACE...WHICH FEW
OTHER SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DO IN THE LAST 4 WEEKS OR SO. SO FOR
NOW WE WILL LEAVE IT ON THE OUTSIDE-CHANCE TO-BE-WATCHED LIST.
The San Juan NWS office mentions it in this afternoons discussion.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
353 PM AST SUN OCT 2 2005
WORTH MENTIONING...BUT STILL LOW ON THE SCALE OF PROBABILITY...IS
THE SWIRL OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED OFF OF AFRICA A WHILE AGO AND IS
NOW NEAR 23 WEST SOUTH OF 16 NORTH. THE GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS...DEVELOPS A CIRCULATION...AND BRINGS IT TO 8 NORTH AND 40 WEST
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND TO 13 NORTH 54 WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THAT POINT IT IS PRESUMABLY A TROPICAL STORM OR BETTER AND IT DRIVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. IN
THIS WAY IT APPEARS TO MISS THE LOCAL AREA ALTOGETHER. THIS SCENARIO
LOOKS FINE...IF IT CAN GET TOGETHER IN THE FIRST PLACE...WHICH FEW
OTHER SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DO IN THE LAST 4 WEEKS OR SO. SO FOR
NOW WE WILL LEAVE IT ON THE OUTSIDE-CHANCE TO-BE-WATCHED LIST.
The San Juan NWS office mentions it in this afternoons discussion.
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SamSagnella
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Charles-KD5ZSM
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SamSagnella wrote:How many times have we seen the GFS hint at 'something' developing 94 hours out...I wouldn't be at all surprised if it drops this possible development on the next run.
If every 1000mb storm was called a monster, what would you call a 900mb storm?
"get the heck out of dodge" hurricane
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Hyperstorm
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I posted something about this interesting disturbance earlier today in another thread. An enormous upper-level ridge for this time of year is expected to gain territory over the Eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. If this pans out, we could have a developing system in our hands.
This tropical wave is quite vigorous for this time of year, so I think there is potential if it persists for the next 12-24 hours...
This tropical wave is quite vigorous for this time of year, so I think there is potential if it persists for the next 12-24 hours...
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bvigal
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Hyperstorm wrote:...This tropical wave is quite vigorous for this time of year, so I think there is potential if it persists for the next 12-24 hours...
Hyperstorm, you hit the nail on the head! Considering the last 6 weeks of waves coming off Africa, which all fizzeled from shear or went fishing, let's wait and see if this PERSISTS for 24 hrs. If it does, then it will have my rapt attention.
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dixiebreeze
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Ummm at least one model GFS tracks this wave westward and develops it in a weak stage.-
dixiebreeze
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SamSagnella wrote:CapeVerdeWave wrote:Persistent and VERY STRONG shear is the main reason...
Yeah...shear over the eastern atlantic has been over 30kts for at least the past several days (see TD19) and should continue to be for at least the next two. And why was the word 'monster' used in the title of this thread...if 19 was a monster then I suppose I understand.
The shear is not that strong in the area of the wave. Also, I did NOT call this a "monster." The title was in question form, not a statement.
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I completely appreciate the awareness, Dixie...but for me, when the word *monster* is used, it gives my heart a thump, rather than a knock. Maybe it is because I am going off island on Friday for 10 days and really don't like being gone at this time of year, but I have to go...my preps will not change, most already in place for leaving.
But for me (and I emphasize that, for ME), I'd rather a head's up be couched in calm terms, rather than *monster*. My attitude is to hope for the best, prepare for the worst. which is how I live, pretty much. But it doesn't mean I don't get anxious! Now a bit more than usual
But for me (and I emphasize that, for ME), I'd rather a head's up be couched in calm terms, rather than *monster*. My attitude is to hope for the best, prepare for the worst. which is how I live, pretty much. But it doesn't mean I don't get anxious! Now a bit more than usual
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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dixiebreeze
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dixiebreeze
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Swimdude wrote:dixiebreeze wrote:I changed the title of the thread to calm down all those who panicked at the question in the original title.
LOL
I was wondering. All of a sudden I couldn't find this thread!
LOL is right! Can't believe the rude and patronizing remarks over the original title question: "monster in the making?"
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