Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

Did anyone just get this Opal II gut punch?

well they just had a special on opal on storm stories..lol

[Coredesat]

Stan now a TD, but it's about to exit into the BOC:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN (AL202005) ON 20051003 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

051003 0000 051003 1200 051004 0000 051004 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 20.7N 89.8W 21.1N 91.3W 21.2N 93.0W 21.1N 94.7W

BAMM 20.7N 89.8W 21.1N 91.5W 21.3N 93.1W 21.1N 94.8W

A98E 20.7N 89.8W 21.2N 91.6W 21.5N 93.4W 21.5N 95.3W

LBAR 20.7N 89.8W 21.3N 92.0W 21.9N 94.3W 22.6N 96.6W

SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS

DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 52KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

051005 0000 051006 0000 051007 0000 051008 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 20.8N 96.7W 20.5N 100.8W 20.5N 104.7W 20.4N 107.9W

BAMM 20.8N 96.8W 20.2N 100.7W 20.0N 104.3W 19.9N 107.5W

A98E 21.4N 97.6W 21.5N 102.1W 22.4N 106.0W 23.4N 108.3W

LBAR 23.6N 98.9W 25.3N 102.2W 27.1N 103.5W 27.1N 102.9W

SHIP 60KTS 77KTS 91KTS 97KTS

DSHP 62KTS 35KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 89.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 19.9N LONM12 = 87.9W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 86.7W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 35KT

CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[canetracker]

Opal's Track
http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/opal32.gif
Cindy's Track
http://moreweather.com/tropics/2005/Cindy/lCINDY.gif

Still say this is early to call. Mexico storm on second landfall??

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I just remember them calling for Opal to make landfall in Mexico, then the front coming down was stronger than they thought and it whisked her up.

[vaffie]

Did anyone just get this Opal II gut punch?

well they just had a special on opal on storm stories..lol

That would be a really bad scenario. Totally possible. I don't know what will happen--it's really up in the air. I always like to go with the GFDL and if it's now showing it stalling in the Bay, that's bad. At the same time, it's made more complicated by this other low coming in from the Bahamas over or under Florida into the Eastern and then Central Gulf, and a developing low in the Gulf of Tihuanapec predicted by SHIPS to become a hurricane and moving who knows where. Who knows what the interaction between these three tropical systems will be. If the global models are correct in bringing a tropical system into the Central Gulf and stalling it, and Stan is still hanging around in the Bay of Campeche, does that mean that Stan will force ?Tammy? to continue going west into Texas? I don't know. Will ?Tammy? push Stan back over the Yucatan towards Cuba and then northeastward? And that's without looking at the cold fronts and high pressures. It could be really complicated. We will have to see. The models might have a hard time predicting what will happen because a change in one variable will change their predictions dramatically.

[KatDaddy]

There is no way this is going to Mexico. Going out on limb tonight. Just look at tonight's IR satellite. It tells the tale.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/g8/latest_g8ir.gif

[cinlfla]

There is no way this is going to Mexico. Going out on limb tonight. Just look at tonight's IR satellite. It tells the tale.

Katdaddy could you please tell the tale.

[canetracker]

There is no way this is going to Mexico. Going out on limb tonight. Just look at tonight's IR satellite. It tells the tale.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/g8/latest_g8ir.gif

Don't think Mexico either. Check this out:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20050928&endTime=-1&duration=7

[Rainband]

I love the second guessing of the NHC. Yes they have admited the intensity forecasting problem...but the track forecasting has been excellent. Sorry but this is a Mexico stom IMO.

[Rainband]

There is no way this is going to Mexico. Going out on limb tonight. Just look at tonight's IR satellite. It tells the tale.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/g8/latest_g8ir.gif

Don't think Mexico either. Check this out:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20050928&endTime=-1&duration=7

looks like Mexico to me probably take a track wsw in a bit

[vaffie]

I love the second guessing of the NHC. Yes they have admited the intensity forecasting problem...but the track forecasting has been excellent. Sorry but this is a Mexico stom IMO.

Rainband, honestly, I love the NHC. I think they're the best thing there is. I've read almost every hurricane discussion and tropical outlook they've ever written with great interest and appreciation for at least 9 years. They're really good at what they do, but they are not all-knowing. Storms very often do something very different from what they say they will. They have a better track record than any single computer model, but if it was perfect, they wouldn't keep shifting their tracks every few hours. The models they base their forecasts on are based on equations that do not confirm perfectly to life--they do not have all the data they need, they make wrong assumptions, they don't understand intensities well at all, so it's quite natural. When the NHC makes a forecast, I generally accept it as what is the most likely thing for the storm to do, but I think about what might go wrong nevertheless to make that forecast need adjustments.

[canetracker]

I love the second guessing of the NHC. Yes they have admited the intensity forecasting problem...but the track forecasting has been excellent. Sorry but this is a Mexico stom IMO.

I do agree that they have been excellent, but late on. Early on, with unpredictable systems, they have not been too great. This could be a Mexico landfall. However, I do think the NHC relies too much on models vs. the atmospheric conditions. Just my two cents.

[Kennethb]

Mexico seems likely. But a slower movement would raise the caution flag.

Lots of nearby systems will play a role. It depends on, and how well the models read, Otis, the suspect tropical disturbance area to the south, and the strength and timing of the trough. So far the models have not handled the troughs very well. Here in Baton Rouge, we are awaiting the first true trough which is over due.

Hopefully the ridge of the GOM will hold and keep him headed towards Mexico. New Orleans cannot even handle a tropical depression.

[KatDaddy]

I am just looking at the trough across the central US which is progressing eastward. This will bring a cold fron across SE Texas Thursday. You will also notice the effect on Otis near Baja CA. Stan moving inland at the same time the front approaches central TX..........I definitely have my doubts tonight that Stan will move west into Mexico. We are getting into a more progressive pattern this time of year.

[cinlfla]

Thank You Katdaddy for explaining

[cjrciadt]

[ROCK]

I am just looking at the trough across the central US which is progressing eastward. This will bring a cold fron across SE Texas Thursday. You will also notice the effect on Otis near Baja CA. Stan moving inland at the same time the front approaches central TX..........I definitely have my doubts tonight that Stan will move west into Mexico. We are getting into a more progressive pattern this time of year.

Though I never go against the NHC, I am inclined to agree with you to some extent in this instance. Ridging is suspect, IMO, due to the increased in precip today over TX. Also the trough digging in western states would suggest a northward shift then NE shift if Stan decides to slow down some and is far enough north to be picked up at that time. I would like to see where the center is in the am after crossing. Seeing alot of vortices swirling around down there and hard to pinpoint exact location. Tomorrow should tell the tale...IMO......

[Derek Ortt]

Opal was never forecast by NHC to go into Mexico. The farthest west for forecats landfall was Louisiana

[Anthysteg]

keeping my eye on this one that's for sure.

[perk]

Rainband if you would take just a few minutes and look at the water vapor loop posted by canetracker you may understand why Katdaddy,vaffie, and even myself might have reservations about the NHC's current track on Stan. You should also go back and look at the NHC's initial track on Rita. If memory serves me right it was well south of the actual landfall which was east of Galveston. The same thing with Katrina their initial thoughts was a landfall around Apalacchicola and we all know where it made landfall. The point i'm trying to make is that the NHC could possibly end up making some adjustments on Stan's track, and i personally think they're a first class outfit.