91L Invest for area in Central Atlantic

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF INTEREST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS NEAR
14N38W. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 12N34W-16N38W.

The above from the 8 AM Discussion

The 2005 season just dont want to rest.Now let's see what this new area does.

[WeatherEmperor]

I just finished reading that myself. Active? You bet.

<RICKY>

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thier looking at 38? Much further east?

[Thunder44]

This is 91L invest. 12z models run out on it. It's where TD 19 was before, the floater is on it.

[cycloneye]

Sorry folks these things happen when a person is very busy as I am now.

Above is the pic that shows that area around 38w.

[Thunder44]

671
WHXX01 KWBC 031208
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20051003 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051003 1200 051004 0000 051004 1200 051005 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 38.0W 15.8N 37.7W 17.7N 37.0W 19.9N 35.7W
BAMM 14.0N 38.0W 15.7N 37.9W 17.3N 37.9W 19.0N 37.8W
A98E 14.0N 38.0W 14.2N 38.3W 14.6N 39.0W 15.4N 39.6W
LBAR 14.0N 38.0W 15.1N 37.9W 16.4N 38.1W 17.7N 38.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 26KTS 24KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 26KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051005 1200 051006 1200 051007 1200 051008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.0N 32.8W 23.5N 24.2W 24.6N 12.7W 29.7N 2.3W
BAMM 20.8N 37.1W 23.2N 34.7W 22.9N 33.0W 19.9N 33.2W
A98E 16.6N 39.9W 20.1N 39.5W 22.9N 38.7W 22.7N 36.2W
LBAR 19.1N 38.8W 23.7N 37.6W 24.6N 33.2W 22.3N 28.2W
SHIP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 38.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 38.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 38.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[WeatherEmperor]

They are putting out an invest for that? Wow they sure are in a hurry.

<RICKY>

[CHRISTY]

they need to look more at this area near the bahamas!

[THead]

they need to look more at this area near the bahamas!

I think if that area near the bahamas develops, we should change the name to Christy.


Seriously, They're watching it, I don't like the looks of it either, considering the season, and what's come out of that general area this year. We shall see what happens soon.

[CHRISTY]

ha!ha!

[Frank2]

Looks like another early recurve. Aside from TS Stan, there is really nothing of substance at this time - several areas of disturbed weather, but, nothing of else of real significance, and this is reflected in the current TWO.

Frank

[Ivanhater]

Looks like another early recurve. Aside from TS Stan, there is really nothing of substance at this time - several areas of disturbed weather, but, nothing of else of real significance, and this is reflected in the current TWO.

Frank

hello?? go to 92l thread.....almost all the models develop this system in the gulf

[cinlfla]

Looks like another early recurve. Aside from TS Stan, there is really nothing of substance at this time - several areas of disturbed weather, but, nothing of else of real significance, and this is reflected in the current TWO.

Frank

Yes I agree with the possible recurve of 91L but as far as "nothing of substance at this time" even with a few disturbed areas you know how quick things change.

[Anonymous]

Looks like another early recurve. Aside from TS Stan, there is really nothing of substance at this time - several areas of disturbed weather, but, nothing of else of real significance, and this is reflected in the current TWO.

Frank

I would have to disagree. I believe that 92L could be atleast a tropical storm before it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like another early recurve. Aside from TS Stan, there is really nothing of substance at this time - several areas of disturbed weather, but, nothing of else of real significance, and this is reflected in the current TWO.

Frank

I would have to disagree. I believe that 92L could be atleast a tropical storm before it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.

I agree with you Floydbuster. I remember how so many were saying that Katrina and Rita would never form into anything significantly prior to getting to Florida and look what ended up happening. I also expect at the least a tropical storm before the GOM.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.


11:30 TWO.Not a bright future for this system.

[audioslave8]

Oh well it tried but now seems to have died like most Cape Verde waves this year.

[mtm4319]

11:30pm TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

Bye bye 91L.

[cycloneye]

I dont know why they ran models on this dead system knowing that hostil conditions are in all that area.The invest lasted at NRL only around 18 hours.