92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

rockyman · #21 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:38 am

cycloneye wrote:Ok at least I know for which area it is as in the pic area you can put your mouse and the position in latitud and longitud shows up and those numbers 23n-73.5w are for that area.

That would be on the southwestern side of the convection...over the Bahamas! Much closer in that I was expecting...

DESTRUCTION5 · #22 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:38 am

Where the heck are our models Luis!

CHRISTY · #23 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:45 am

so area near bahamas is now an invest??

artist · #24 Postby **artist** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:45 am

I haven't found any model runs yet for it - if you go to this site and click on the list drop down (where you see Rita in the box) you can see all the invest #'s near the top - click on 92 and it shows an old model run from a previous invest 92 at this point. Maybe they are running them now?

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

#25 Postby **THead** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:45 am

rockyman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Ok at least I know for which area it is as in the pic area you can put your mouse and the position in latitud and longitud shows up and those numbers 23n-73.5w are for that area.

That would be on the southwestern side of the convection...over the Bahamas! Much closer in that I was expecting...

Yeah, that is close....considering we're at 26n-80w

#26 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:48 am

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
It deserves it look at this loop.

#27 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:50 am

what are you seeing in this loop>?

artist · #28 Postby **artist** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:50 am

what would make this a hybrid or subtropical?

CHRISTY · #29 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:51 am

yep!it looks like its trying to get organized.

CHRISTY · #30 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:54 am

iam seeing a upperlevel low mixed with tropical wave developing into a pure tropical system down to the surface!

#31 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:54 am

boca_chris wrote:what are you seeing in this loop>?

Just looking at the increase in convection, CNN just showed a great zoomed in look but this to small in comparison

CHRISTY · #32 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:55 am

what!!

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:56 am

Ok folks here is the first pic from NRL backup navy site of 92L.

DESTRUCTION5 · #34 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:59 am

Boy AccuWX always has to be the Outlier..Saying North FL the up the east Coast...All by Wed....WTF?

#35 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:00 am

I'm curious to see what the model runs will look like :?:

Frank2 · #36 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:01 am

Re: cjrciadt's post

When viewing that loop, it's easy to see that anything east of 50W can be discounted, since any weather in that area is either stationary or moving northward - it looks like the Cape Verde season is over.

As for the disturbance east of the Bahamas - a lot of convection, but, as the TWD mentioned, this area is between two ridges of high pressure, so at the moment it is only drifting westward, at best.

What's important to remember here in early October is that the easterlies are in the process of breaking down, and, with the exception of brief periods of renewed easterly tradewinds, any tropical disturbances (unless at low latitutdes like Stan) are likely to move slowly or erratically.

Frank

cinlfla · #37 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:02 am

Boy AccuWX always has to be the Outlier..Saying North FL the up the east Coast...All by Wed....WTF?

They must have had there dose of Stupid this moring J/K maybe they know something we don't...NOT

CHRISTY · #38 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:03 am

negative i think this will come straight west or may wnw eventually!local mets here in miami said what ever is there is headed for south florida.

#39 Postby **hial2** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:09 am

As for the disturbance east of the Bahamas - a lot of convection, but, as the TWD mentioned, this area is between two ridges of high pressure, so at the moment it is only drifting westward, at best.

Disagree, Frank..If it was caught between 2 highs, it would be moving, and
quite fast, towards the north..sort of like a seed squeezed between a thumb and forefinger..IMO

Frank2 · #40 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:12 am

Re: CHRISTY's post

No offense, but, many of the young females who are the early morning "OCMs" here in South Florida, often do not seem to know what they are speaking about, as I noticed the other day, when one of these weathercasters confused former TD19 with the current disturbance east of the Bahamas, and referred to TD19 as "moving this way".

I really do not want to be critical of them, but, since I get up early, I sometimes will watch the local newscasts for a few minutes, and, these young OCM's often appear as sleepy-eyed as I am, and, it's obvious that they are reading whatever information has been left for them by the senior OCM the night before, so, anything that the morning staff often says must be taken with a grain of salt. In reality, the evening senior OCM staff are the folks that often have the most knowledge - I just wish the public were somehow made aware of this, as it would prevent a great deal of needless worry.

Frank

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