92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

That is one crazy Canadian model run.

<RICKY>

[Canelaw99]

Yes it is LOL - maybe a little too much beer at Octoberfest?

[jlauderdal]

SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 04/1500Z
B. NOAA2 01IIA INVEST
C. 04/1330Z
D. 24.0N 78.0W
E. 04/1430Z TO 04/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Tomorrow afternoon the first plane will go to 92L.

if necessarry

[Air Force Met]

Yea....they're talking about one POTENT cold front for this time of year. They're saying our lows Friday night in SELA will be in the upper 50's???? Nah....not yet.

It's really not that potent. People just think it is because it has been so hot. Upper 50's is certainly possible. We are not talking about record breaking cold...just the first real front of the season. In NOLA...the average low/high is supposed to be 64/83. So...we are talking a cold front that brings in air that's maybe 3-6 degrees below normal. That's not "potent." A "potent" cold front is one that takes you towards your record lows in the mid-40's (which is 46 on Wed...45 on Friday...and 40 on Saturday)...that would be potent and overdone.

I think people have forgotten all of this because it has been so hot. Normally you should be expecting lows in the upper 50's this time of year...at least every other year or so...because your avg. low is 64...which means since lows have been about 75 (which is 10+ degrees above normal)...you need some 50's to balance that out.

So...in other words...this is not a potent cold front that is unusually cold with record temps...this is a normal front that you get in early October...not some anomoly. It's a front that will just BARELY bring temps to within normal limits...and maybe slightly below normal. Not unusualy at all for this time of year. Gotta keep perspective and realize that what is unusul is a low of 75 (10 degrees above normal)...not a low of 58..which is 6 degrees below normal. Add them together and you are close to normal.

[Frank2]

Re: CHRISTY's post

I wouldn't worry too much (I was on Homestead's Mowry Drive just yesterday morning, on a project related to Hurricane Katrina), since any movement towards Florida would likely be well north of your area.

Frank

[dixiebreeze]

SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 04/1500Z
B. NOAA2 01IIA INVEST
C. 04/1330Z
D. 24.0N 78.0W
E. 04/1430Z TO 04/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Tomorrow afternoon the first plane will go to 92L.

if necessarry

Recon shows it as a "cyclone" for the second run:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[WeatherEmperor]

Re: CHRISTY's post

I wouldn't worry too much (I was on Homestead's Mowry Drive just yesterday morning, on a project related to Hurricane Katrina), since any movement towards Florida would likely be well north of your area.

Frank

Maybe she is affraid because of what Katrina did. Katrina was forecast to also hit Florida well north of her area but then as we know, she took a WSW dive that dumped a crap load of rain near the Homestead area. I dont think it will happen again in that same fashion but perhaps that is why she is so concerned.

<RICKY>

[no advance]

Melbourne NWS TROPICAL STORM STAN IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BUT WILL NOT BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER. WE ARE MUCH MORE
INTERESTED IN AN UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...MOVING WEST. A CIRCULATION CAN EASILY BE DISCERNED IN THE
INFRARED SAT IMAGERY BUT THIS IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AT 250 MB.
THERE IS NO CLOSED SFC CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...ONLY AN INVERTED
TROUGH. NONETHELESS...THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TUE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...CAUSING MINOR BEACH EROSION
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. SO WILL ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THIS
AFTN TO TAKE EFFECT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. NEXT HIGH TIDE IS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM.

[CHRISTY]

how you figure if that pressure is there and likely to be there for another 2-3 days isnt that gonna drive it west?

[Frank2]

True enough - here in South Florida, there have been years when the first significant cold front could be felt as early as mid-October (I recall October, 1977, when it was chilly come the second or third week of October), so, a front at this time isn't unusual.

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

I say bring on the cold front. we could use a major cool down here in south florida.

<RICKY>

[Air Force Met]

True enough - here in South Florida, there have been years when the first significant cold front could be felt as early as mid-October (I recall October, 1977, when it was chilly come the second or third week of October), so, a front at this time isn't unusual.

Frank

Everybody has forgotten all of that because it has been so hot. Lows 5-10 above normal (if not more) and highs 10 above normal...and not just for a day or two...but since September. People forget we should have already had two fronts or so that would have at least dried us out.

[Brent]

SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 04/1500Z
B. NOAA2 01IIA INVEST
C. 04/1330Z
D. 24.0N 78.0W
E. 04/1430Z TO 04/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Tomorrow afternoon the first plane will go to 92L.

if necessarry

Recon shows it as a "cyclone" for the second run:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

WOW... 24.0 N 81.0 W is South of the Florida Keys....

[vaffie]

I'm stating the obvious, but the recon flight position will be south of Florida and Nassau, Bahamas. Also, do you guys see how close the CMC brings this to New Orleans? It will be pushing water into the Lake big time--also who's to say that it will stay offshore the whole time it is making this big loop in the Gulf? It could make landfall almost anywhere in the Gulf once or twice before it gets back to Florida--what a mess that will be--especially if it is a strong system. Also I agree with your assessments of the cold front.

[SkeetoBite]

AL922005



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051003 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051003 1200 051004 0000 051004 1200 051005 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 73.5W 22.8N 74.8W 22.9N 76.2W 23.6N 77.6W
BAMM 23.0N 73.5W 23.1N 75.3W 23.4N 77.1W 24.2N 78.7W
A98E 23.0N 73.5W 23.1N 75.4W 23.4N 76.9W 24.4N 78.4W
LBAR 23.0N 73.5W 23.2N 75.3W 23.4N 77.1W 24.0N 78.9W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051005 1200 051006 1200 051007 1200 051008 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 79.1W 28.6N 82.0W 32.5N 82.5W 40.2N 76.1W
BAMM 25.5N 80.3W 28.5N 82.7W 30.9N 83.1W 36.3N 77.1W
A98E 26.2N 79.6W 29.1N 81.2W 32.9N 79.9W 41.9N 71.4W
LBAR 24.6N 80.9W 26.1N 83.6W 28.6N 85.4W 33.7N 82.7W
SHIP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 73KTS
DSHP 59KTS 36KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 71.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 23.0N LONM24 = 69.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Frank2]

That's right - when I was a club cyclist, I can recall some early mornings as early as early or mid September that were on the cool side for the first hour or so of our ride, with actual cool weather beginning at this time, but that's hardly been the case this year...

Frank

[CHRISTY]

looks like south florida event as of right now.

[Brent]

looks like south florida event as of right now.

Looks more like a simple rain event. If it's already south of the Keys by tomorrow night, then it doesn't have much time.

[jdray]

We are defintely getting some tropical rain up here in NE Florida, the high pressure is still north of us, so it's entirely possible that Accuweather's forecast might be "somewhat" solid.


The rain has been coming down pretty hard, its very easy to "feel" the tropical moisture and atmosphere. Temps still in the mid to upper 80's.

All depends on the timing of the front and the motion of the wave/invest.

[Air Force Met]

I'm stating the obvious, but the recon flight position will be south of Florida and Nassau, Bahamas. Also, do you guys see how close the CMC brings this to New Orleans? It will be pushing water into the Lake big time--also who's to say that it will stay offshore the whole time it is making this big loop in the Gulf? It could make landfall almost anywhere in the Gulf once or twice before it gets back to Florida--what a mess that will be--especially if it is a strong system. Also I agree with your assessments of the cold front.

This thing will not develop rapidly enough to be a major threat to anyone. The front will push down and then the dry-air train will start to develop. This will probably be some sort of hybrid system if it does develop...not any major hurricane. Dry air entrainment from the front alone will see to that. I forsee a moderate tropical storm with lots of hybrid characteristics. Lot's of rain on the east side....dry on the west...spinning around for a few days until it gets picked up by the front and long wave trof over the weekend. Haven't paid a lot of attention to it...so don't take that as gospel...but looking at the overall setup...that's my guess. TS winds...lot's of rain east of MS/AL and into Florida.