92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rockyman]

The NHC models initialize the system with 30kt winds? That seems pretty high for a first run...usually it's 25 or 20 knots.

[Brent]

11:30am TWO:

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND
COMPLEX SYSTEM OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
NORTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING A SHORT DISTANCE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND REACH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE TOMORROW OR WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051003 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051003 1200 051004 0000 051004 1200 051005 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 73.5W 22.8N 74.8W 22.9N 76.2W 23.6N 77.6W
BAMM 23.0N 73.5W 23.1N 75.3W 23.4N 77.1W 24.2N 78.7W
A98E 23.0N 73.5W 23.1N 75.4W 23.4N 76.9W 24.4N 78.4W
LBAR 23.0N 73.5W 23.2N 75.3W 23.4N 77.1W 24.0N 78.9W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051005 1200 051006 1200 051007 1200 051008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 79.1W 28.6N 82.0W 32.5N 82.5W 40.2N 76.1W
BAMM 25.5N 80.3W 28.5N 82.7W 30.9N 83.1W 36.3N 77.1W
A98E 26.2N 79.6W 29.1N 81.2W 32.9N 79.9W 41.9N 71.4W
LBAR 24.6N 80.9W 26.1N 83.6W 28.6N 85.4W 33.7N 82.7W
SHIP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 73KTS
DSHP 59KTS 36KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 71.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 23.0N LONM24 = 69.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Ok folks as a moderator I have the obligation to post every piece of information about a system and here are the first models plots for 92L so for those who like to see them or for those who dont believe in them here they are.

[dixiebreeze]

Luis, I believe it!

[vaffie]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051003 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051003 1200 051004 0000 051004 1200 051005 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 73.5W 22.8N 74.8W 22.9N 76.2W 23.6N 77.6W
BAMM 23.0N 73.5W 23.1N 75.3W 23.4N 77.1W 24.2N 78.7W
A98E 23.0N 73.5W 23.1N 75.4W 23.4N 76.9W 24.4N 78.4W
LBAR 23.0N 73.5W 23.2N 75.3W 23.4N 77.1W 24.0N 78.9W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051005 1200 051006 1200 051007 1200 051008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 79.1W 28.6N 82.0W 32.5N 82.5W 40.2N 76.1W
BAMM 25.5N 80.3W 28.5N 82.7W 30.9N 83.1W 36.3N 77.1W
A98E 26.2N 79.6W 29.1N 81.2W 32.9N 79.9W 41.9N 71.4W
LBAR 24.6N 80.9W 26.1N 83.6W 28.6N 85.4W 33.7N 82.7W
SHIP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 73KTS
DSHP 59KTS 36KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 71.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 23.0N LONM24 = 69.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Ok folks as a moderator I have the obligation to post every piece of information about a system and here are the first models plots for 92L so for those who like to see them or for those who dont believe in them here they are.

Disregarding these models which take it northwest into Florida and do not conform at all with the globals that take it due west into the Gulf south of Florida or over south Florida, SHIPS has it almost at a hurricane before it gets there! That's pretty strong, and this year, SHIPS did not even show near as much strengthening for our other two Bahamas-born storms as what actually happened! Additionally, though hard to believe at this point, if SHIPS does hold true, it will become Tropical Storm Tammy perhaps as early as the 11 pm advisory (though they may wait on that until they have a plane in it tomorrow--but the Dvorak number will tell the tale!

[floridahurricaneguy]

So is this still looking like possible west coast threat? Where is site for model plots again. Not on home computer.

Matt

[mtm4319]

So is this still looking like possible west coast threat? Where is site for model plots again. Not on home computer.

Matt

AL922005

Alternately (this should be updated shortly with the "new" 92L):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

[wxwonder12]

I don't know how to translate the plots that cycloneye posted. Is Skeetobites model map accurate at this point. I know it has been posted that he has very good maps and guidence tools. thanks

[ronjon]

I don't put much stock in the dynamic models, especially north of 20N. The global models are further south but a good compromise right now may be the 06Z NAM. This model is not especially good with tropical systems but it's been the earliest model to develop the Bahamas disturbance and seems to have the best handle on the current conditions.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[floridahurricaneguy]

Model plots make it look like it may go farther west then proceed north right? Sincce a lot of people are not thinking it will hit florida from east? correct

[HurricaneQueen]

So. Fl Management is still showing the last 92L. Hopefully, they will update soon.

This thing could get ugly fast if it picks up speed. Of course, it still has 700 miles to transverse and all kinds of things can happen in the meantime. I suggest all eyes to the East, the next couple of days!!!!!

Lynn

PS Now we know what the cmc runs were picking up on yesterday

[SkeetoBite]

I don't know how to translate the plots that cycloneye posted. Is Skeetobites model map accurate at this point. I know it has been posted that he has very good maps and guidence tools. thanks

The maps are 100% accurate based on the data provided. Unfortunately, these are not the most reliable models. I usually wait for the GFDL and UKMET before giving the models much attention.

[JTD]

I find this system VERY frightening. (potential wise)

[alicia-w]

Alternately (this should be updated shortly with the "new" 92L):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

I dont think this is the right graphic. It shows the storm south of Hispaniola and Cuba, instead of north.

[cjrciadt]

Latest GOES image.

[mtm4319]

Alternately (this should be updated shortly with the "new" 92L):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

I dont think this is the right graphic. It shows the storm south of Hispaniola and Cuba, instead of north.

Yes, that's the old 92L (10 invests ago). That's why I said it should be updated soon.

[artist]

? here - is it the fronts coming down that would make it a hybrid or subtropical

[weatherSnoop]

BAMM and BAMD put it too close for comfort (just about on my head)

I vote we toss those 2 out of the mix...no scientific reason, just cause!

[terpfan]

Hi all. First post, long time lurker. Canals here in western Fort Lauderdale (i.e., Plantation, FL = the westernmost ocean access canals in Broward County) are lapping at the bottom of our docks (several feet above normal height). It would seem that SFWMD is likely dumping fresh water from the western fresh water canals out to sea in anticipation of a possibly significant rain event associated with this system.

[Canelaw99]

I would believe it terp....local mets have been saying that today is probably our best weather of the week. General thinking is that if this thing doesn't develop into a depression or storm, we'll still end up with significant rain this week. At least the SFWMD is planning ahead