92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Steve H. · #121 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:18 am

I guess I don't understand all the fuss about 92L or the NHC. The NRL site shows (centered in their picture) an exposed LLC that is already in the Central Bahamas and will be passing through the Florida Staits tonight and Tuesday. The area of convection east of the Bahamas is an Upper and Mid-level low that may make it down to the surface. I don't think this is 92L. The exposed LLC is 92L. Please correct me if I am wrong on this! But look at the satellite pix before you do.

#122 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:32 am

cycloneye wrote:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051003 1200 UTC

...00 HRS...
LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 73.5W
BAMM 23.0N 73.5W
A98E 23.0N 73.5W
LBAR 23.0N 73.5W

Is anyone else wondering if they are initializing this correctly? I see a spin on the vis loop (which very well may not yet be at the surface yet) near 24.6N and 70W (corrected from my 75W typo...sorry) moving W or WNW. Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

Here is the vis loop link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#123 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:38 am

Steve H. wrote:I guess I don't understand all the fuss about 92L or the NHC. The NRL site shows (centered in their picture) an exposed LLC that is already in the Central Bahamas and will be passing through the Florida Staits tonight and Tuesday. The area of convection east of the Bahamas is an Upper and Mid-level low that may make it down to the surface. I don't think this is 92L. The exposed LLC is 92L. Please correct me if I am wrong on this! But look at the satellite pix before you do.

I agree. I think people are just very jittery. There is a very VERY weak low at the surface...barely closed if at all. Lots of good turning on the north side...but very little on the south side...if any...eastward motion to the clouds. The convection is far removed from the center othe east near the upper low. The global models keep the upper low near the sfc center. Take a look at the NAM or GFS on day 2 and 3...the upper low is there IN FORCE. There will be NO major development of anything other than a hybrid system as long as that upper low is in close proximity. The fix given by the model run is that exposed LLC...which is 100+ miles west of all the convection. There is NOTHING happening at the sfc near the convection other than some good easterly flow....and as long as that easterly flow remains strong...nothing WILL happen.

This is a hybrid system. The GFS has a good handle on it (maybe not exact track...but the look of the system)...which is maybe a 1004 mb low meandering around in the eastern GOM...producing lots of rain over Florida and some good gradient winds along the north and NE Gulf Coast (due to proximity to the front)...and then getting sucked northeastward and merginf with the front for some good baroclinic development.

DESTRUCTION5 · #124 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:42 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Steve H. wrote:I guess I don't understand all the fuss about 92L or the NHC. The NRL site shows (centered in their picture) an exposed LLC that is already in the Central Bahamas and will be passing through the Florida Staits tonight and Tuesday. The area of convection east of the Bahamas is an Upper and Mid-level low that may make it down to the surface. I don't think this is 92L. The exposed LLC is 92L. Please correct me if I am wrong on this! But look at the satellite pix before you do.

I agree. I think people are just very jittery. There is a very VERY weak low at the surface...barely closed if at all. Lots of good turning on the north side...but very little on the south side...if any...eastward motion to the clouds. The convection is far removed from the center othe east near the upper low. The global models keep the upper low near the sfc center. Take a look at the NAM or GFS on day 2 and 3...the upper low is there IN FORCE. There will be NO major development of anything other than a hybrid system as long as that upper low is in close proximity. The fix given by the model run is that exposed LLC...which is 100+ miles west of all the convection. There is NOTHING happening at the sfc near the convection other than some good easterly flow....and as long as that easterly flow remains strong...nothing WILL happen.

This is a hybrid system. The GFS has a good handle on it (maybe not exact track...but the look of the system)...which is maybe a 1004 mb low meandering around in the eastern GOM...producing lots of rain over Florida and some good gradient winds along the north and NE Gulf Coast (due to proximity to the front)...and then getting sucked northeastward and merginf with the front for some good baroclinic development.

Not to insult your inteligence but The GFS has a handle on nothing...

#125 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:44 am

LarryWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Is anyone else wondering if they are initializing this correctly? I see a spin on the vis loop (which very well may not yet be at the surface yet) near 24.6N and 75W moving W or WNW. Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

It's south of there...close to the southern tip of Long Island...close to 23.2N and 75 W (within 30 miles)...and it's really not closed off if you look at the cloud elements on the south side...they are moving ever so slightly to the west. It has a storm relative closed circulation but it's not really closed yet.

CHRISTY · #126 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:46 am

i think by tonight it will have a closed circulation

#127 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:46 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:

Not to insult your inteligence but The GFS has a handle on nothing...

Well you just did...so why don't you back that up with some facts. For instance...why did the GFS lead the track charge to the Tx/La landfall when all the other models then eventually followed?

Back it up with something...not just some lame one sentence answer which is really just an opinion.

#128 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:50 am

Air Force Met wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Is anyone else wondering if they are initializing this correctly? I see a spin on the vis loop (which very well may not yet be at the surface yet) near 24.6N and 75W moving W or WNW. Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

It's south of there...close to the southern tip of Long Island...close to 23.2N and 75 W (within 30 miles)...and it's really not closed off if you look at the cloud elements on the south side...they are moving ever so slightly to the west. It has a storm relative closed circulation but it's not really closed yet.

Ooops, I had a typo. I meant 24.6N, 70W rather than 75W. Sorry. I see a spin on the vis loop (which very well may not yet be at the surface yet) near 24.6N and 70W moving W or WNW. Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

Here is the vis loop link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

CHRISTY · #129 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:51 am

iam thinking tonight well have a closed low and with highpressure over it will track west or eventually wnw into florida . how strong who knows but what iam understanding is this low will track threw florida then get then pushed back into florida because of the front!opinions!

DESTRUCTION5 · #130 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:52 am

Air Force Met wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:

Not to insult your inteligence but The GFS has a handle on nothing...

Well you just did...so why don't you back that up with some facts. For instance...why did the GFS lead the track charge to the Tx/La landfall when all the other models then eventually followed?

Back it up with something...not just some lame one sentence answer which is really just an opinion.

Well lets give it some cresidence here..Its good(Decent) up to 36 Hrs IMO after that it loses touch with Reality...I guarentee if you go back and look 36 hrs before lanfall that was not the case...Always Changing its tune and it gets ugly at times...Ive seen it go 1000 miles in the opposite direction at times and thats in a 12Z time frame....

#131 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:53 am

CHRISTY wrote:iam thinking tonight well have a closed low and with highpressure over it will track west or eventually wnw into florida . how strong who knows but what iam understanding is this low will track threw florida then get then pushed back into florida because of the front!opinions!

How old are you Christy?

rainydaze · #132 Postby **rainydaze** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:53 am

FYI: The models are up on the SFWMD web site.

CHRISTY · #133 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:54 am

29 why!

#134 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:54 am

LarryWx wrote:
Ooops, I had a typo. I meant 24.6N, 70W rather than 75W. Sorry. I see a spin on the vis loop (which very well may not yet be at the surface yet) near 24.6N and 70W moving W or WNW. Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

Here is the vis loop link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That's not at the sfc. You are seeing the upper level low. Check out the water vapor loop and see if you don't see the spin there. There is nothing at the sfc in that location other than strong ESE flow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#135 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:55 am

CHRISTY wrote:29 why!

Hey cool...me too. I was just curious.

rainydaze · #136 Postby **rainydaze** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:56 am

Here is the link for the SFWMD site for 92L models

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

#137 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:59 am

Mine is still showing the OLD 92L. Everything else is current so I don't think it's my cache.

mtm4319 · #138 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:01 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:Mine is still showing the OLD 92L. Everything else is current so I don't think it's my cache.

I refreshed and got the new one. It should work.

#139 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:03 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Ooops, I had a typo. I meant 24.6N, 70W rather than 75W. Sorry. I see a spin on the vis loop (which very well may not yet be at the surface yet) near 24.6N and 70W moving W or WNW. Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

Here is the vis loop link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That's not at the sfc. You are seeing the upper level low. Check out the water vapor loop and see if you don't see the spin there. There is nothing at the sfc in that location other than strong ESE flow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Yes, I see a spin there on the WV loop. Are you sure it hasn't yet reached the surface or even close to the surface? Do you see sfc reports from there? Thanks for your posts.

#140 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:06 pm

Waaaah. I cleared the cache and refreshed and still get 9/4 models. I'll try again when I go home for lunch on a different computer. Thanks,mtm.

Lynn

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