92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#141 Postby **Noah** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:10 pm

OK, when, when, when is is coming???? When will we we see something in florida?

#142 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:10 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:

Well lets give it some cresidence here..Its good(Decent) up to 36 Hrs IMO after that it loses touch with Reality...I guarentee if you go back and look 36 hrs before lanfall that was not the case...Always Changing its tune and it gets ugly at times...Ive seen it go 1000 miles in the opposite direction at times and thats in a 12Z time frame....

First of all...what's "cresidence?"

Second...EVERY model has flipped at one time or another in the opposite direction...the NOGAPS has a habit of taking storms into the BoC and leaving them there.

As far as loosing touch with reality...that's just false. With Rita...it did move back and forth by 50 miles here and there...but that's noise. The bottom line is it showed the trend to the border days before it happened. It was the first model to move it up the coast to Matagorda...the reast followed.

I will take you up on your guarantee and prove it wrong. 48 hours before landfall, the ensemble runs were shooting at Tx/La border in 48 hours. Matter of fact...on the 60 hour run...at 22/00Z...they were aiming at Tx/LA border. Go to the NCEP site and see it for yourself.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/targ/hgtmenu.html

Don't guarantee anything when you don't know what you are guaranteeing. The GFS has had some MAJOR busts in the past...but so has every model. ON Rita...it was at Tx/LA when all the other models (except UKMEt which was flipping arounf b/w Matagorda and SWLA) were still neat Matagorda. That is a Fact.

Also...if you re-read what I said...I said that the track was not so clear...but the development of the "LOOK of the system". So...given that was my statement...tell me how the GFS is so totally out to lunch that the upper level low, forecast to be over the eastern GOM in close proximity to the sfc low, is not going to be there? What is going to happen to make the GFS miss that much only 48 hours out? and...BTW...the NAM and the NOGAPS shows the same thing...with the NOGAPS upper low being more around 90W....which would lead to the development of a hybrid system...which is what the GFS is calling for.

So how is that wrong...and give me meteorological answers.

#143 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:10 pm

rainydaze wrote:Here is the link for the SFWMD site for 92L models

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

That is certainly more than a little interesting! :eek:

terpfan · #144 Postby **terpfan** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:11 pm

Doesn't wxman57's sticky suggest that the models that are plotted on the current SFWMD chart (BAMM, BAMD, NHC98, LBAR) should be disregarded as they are not very accurate...especially with respect to storms north of 20 such as 92L?

Any comments from the more experienced wxers on how these models are useful in this case? Just trying to learn. Thanks for any input.

#145 Postby **tracyswfla** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:12 pm

cre·dence ( P ) Pronunciation Key (krdns)
n.
Acceptance as true or valid; belief. See Synonyms at belief.
Claim to acceptance; trustworthiness.

#146 Postby **alicia-w** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:12 pm

especially since it still hasnt been updated.

rainydaze wrote:
Here is the link for the SFWMD site for 92L models

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

That is certainly more than a little interesting!

#147 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:12 pm

terpfan wrote:Doesn't wxman57's sticky suggest that the models that are plotted on the current SFWMD chart (BAMM, BAMD, NHC98, LBAR) should be disregarded as they are not very accurate...especially with respect to storms north of 20 such as 92L?

Any comments from the more experienced wxers on how these models care useful in this case? Just trying to learn. Thanks for any input.

Yeah just ignore those models. They mean nothing.

<RICKY>

#148 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:14 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Yes, I see a spin there on the WV loop. Are you sure it hasn't yet reached the surface or even close to the surface? Do you see sfc reports from there? Thanks for your posts.

I'm positive...unless I failed METSAT (which I didn't..got an A) :lol:

Get a better sat image...go to the GHCC and hi res loop. Never use the SSD site for vis imagery...it's not updated as often and you can get a better resolution over at the GHCC...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

#149 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:15 pm

alicia-w wrote:especially since it still hasnt been updated.

It actually has. I use AOL most of the time, and it isn't showing the models updated. However, I opened up my explorer and looked at the same map and they are updated. I've learned that sometimes your browser doesn't update right away. :wink:

#150 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:17 pm

tracyswfla wrote::D

cre·dence ( P ) Pronunciation Key (krdns)
n.
Acceptance as true or valid; belief. See Synonyms at belief.
Claim to acceptance; trustworthiness.

I know what credence is...that's not the word he used. I was wondering if it was a word I haven't heard of :lol:

#151 Postby **alicia-w** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:17 pm

when i entered my response, it had not been updated. it is, indeed, updated now.

#152 Postby **tracyswfla** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:17 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
tracyswfla wrote::D

cre·dence ( P ) Pronunciation Key (krdns)
n.
Acceptance as true or valid; belief. See Synonyms at belief.
Claim to acceptance; trustworthiness.

I know what credence is...that's not the word he used. I was wondering if it was a word I haven't heard of

I know you do.. I was guessing that is what he meant : )

CHRISTY · #153 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:17 pm

#154 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:18 pm

I should point out that being a Georgian, Im watching this system very carefully. Since 1800, records show that there were at least six times that part or all of SE GA has experienced a tropical cyclone due to TC's moving directly from the Atlantic into either GA, NE FL, or extreme S SC just during the very short five day period 10/2-10/6. That is a lot for only a five day period. So, it does seem to be one of the seasonal peaks for direct landfalls for this area...about one every 34 years on average even though the last one to actually do this during 10/2-10/6 was all the way back in 1947.

The pattern of a very strong high (upper and lower levels) over the NE U.S. persisting for several days in early OCT is conducive based on climo for a tropical system to develop, strengthen, and then move W, WNW or NW toward the SE coast, with some chance that it would be steered into or very near the GA coast. My guess as of now would be tropical storm if it were to do so.

#155 Postby **alicia-w** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:18 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
tracyswfla wrote::D

cre·dence ( P ) Pronunciation Key (krdns)
n.
Acceptance as true or valid; belief. See Synonyms at belief.
Claim to acceptance; trustworthiness.

I know what credence is...that's not the word he used. I was wondering if it was a word I haven't heard of

#156 Postby **seaswing** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:19 pm

skysummit wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:29 why!

Hey cool...me too. I was just curious.

good back-peddling summit!

#157 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:19 pm

FWIW the 12Z UKMET still shows whatever form this system is going into the east coast of FL and then still going back towards the NW Florida coast while in the GOM, but it has really backed off this full circle loop it did before in the GOM.

<RICKY>

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

#158 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:21 pm

seaswing wrote:
skysummit wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:29 why!

Hey cool...me too. I was just curious.

good back-peddling summit!

LOL

#159 Postby **tracyswfla** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:21 pm

Can't help it, I am a dictonary.com geek!

#160 Postby **Noah** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 12:21 pm

OK ,did someone miss my question?? When should we expect this blob to arrive in florida and will if effect south central west coast of florida? It does not have a name yet either right?

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