92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Canelaw99]

Noah - it isn't named yet...it's not even a depression yet. Our local people have been saying that we'll be getting rain most of this week courtesy of this blob. Beyond that, it's kind of hard to know. Some of the models have it coming through the state, while others have it crossing through the southern part of FL, out into the Gulf, then looping back into the western side of the peninsula somewhere.

So - not really sure when to expect what beyond what our people are saying right now.

[Noah]

Can't help it, I am a dictonary.com geek!

LOL spelled dictionary wrong.. im no great speller, just thought it was funny that you said dictionary geek..lol

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well lets give it some cresidence here..Its good(Decent) up to 36 Hrs IMO after that it loses touch with Reality...I guarentee if you go back and look 36 hrs before lanfall that was not the case...Always Changing its tune and it gets ugly at times...Ive seen it go 1000 miles in the opposite direction at times and thats in a 12Z time frame....

First of all...what's "cresidence?"

Second...EVERY model has flipped at one time or another in the opposite direction...the NOGAPS has a habit of taking storms into the BoC and leaving them there.

As far as loosing touch with reality...that's just false. With Rita...it did move back and forth by 50 miles here and there...but that's noise. The bottom line is it showed the trend to the border days before it happened. It was the first model to move it up the coast to Matagorda...the reast followed.

I will take you up on your guarantee and prove it wrong. 48 hours before landfall, the ensemble runs were shooting at Tx/La border in 48 hours. Matter of fact...on the 60 hour run...at 22/00Z...they were aiming at Tx/LA border. Go to the NCEP site and see it for yourself.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/targ/hgtmenu.html

Don't guarantee anything when you don't know what you are guaranteeing. The GFS has had some MAJOR busts in the past...but so has every model. ON Rita...it was at Tx/LA when all the other models (except UKMEt which was flipping arounf b/w Matagorda and SWLA) were still neat Matagorda. That is a Fact.

Also...if you re-read what I said...I said that the track was not so clear...but the development of the "LOOK of the system". So...given that was my statement...tell me how the GFS is so totally out to lunch that the upper level low, forecast to be over the eastern GOM in close proximity to the sfc low, is not going to be there? What is going to happen to make the GFS miss that much only 48 hours out? and...BTW...the NAM and the NOGAPS shows the same thing...with the NOGAPS upper low being more around 90W....which would lead to the development of a hybrid system...which is what the GFS is calling for.

So how is that wrong...and give me meteorological answers.

Look im not going to argue with a Professional Met..As per Im far from it...Spelling aside...I have been watching the GFS for years now and its there in black and white...Right or Wrong...I Don't like its setup this time...Its not what i would look for in Early Oct...Hands down..

[jax]

OK ,did someone miss my question?? When should we expect this blob to arrive in florida and will if effect south central west coast of florida? It does not have a name yet either right?

are you evacuating?

[Air Force Met]

OK ,did someone miss my question?? When should we expect this blob to arrive in florida and will if effect south central west coast of florida? It does not have a name yet either right?

The effect will be lot's of rain and breezy conditions...nothing damaging. It's moving at a good clip and will not develop all that rapidly. Expect winds gusting into the 30's maybe with lot's of rain. Expect all of this in the next 36-48 hours and then afterwards.

[tracyswfla]

Can't help it, I am a dictonary.com geek!

LOL spelled dictionary wrong.. im no great speller, just thought it was funny that you said dictionary geek..lol

Dictionary Dictionary Dictionary! Sorry : )

typo

[Noah]

OK ,did someone miss my question?? When should we expect this blob to arrive in florida and will if effect south central west coast of florida? It does not have a name yet either right?

are you evacuating?

Smart

[NastyCat4]

I should point out that being a Georgian, Im watching this system very carefully. Since 1800, records show that there were at least six times that part or all of SE GA has experienced a tropical cyclone due to TC's moving directly from the Atlantic into either GA, NE FL, or extreme S SC just during the very short five day period 10/2-10/6. That is a lot for only a five day period. So, it does seem to be one of the seasonal peaks for direct landfalls for this area...about one every 34 years on average even though the last one to actually do this during 10/2-10/6 was all the way back in 1947.

The pattern of a very strong high (upper and lower levels) over the NE U.S. persisting for several days in early OCT is conducive based on climo for a tropical system to develop, strengthen, and then move W, WNW or NW toward the SE coast, with some chance that it would be steered into or very near the GA coast. My guess as of now would be tropical storm if it were to do so.
Back to top

The senario you describe isn't likely, as it woud take a completely tropical entity to do this, and this storm, given its separation of ULL, and T-storms and minimal convection is more likely to be a hybrid. That isn't the kind of storm to be a tropical cyclone landfalling near or in Georgia.

[Noah]

OK ,did someone miss my question?? When should we expect this blob to arrive in florida and will if effect south central west coast of florida? It does not have a name yet either right?

The effect will be lot's of rain and breezy conditions...nothing damaging. It's moving at a good clip and will not develop all that rapidly. Expect winds gusting into the 30's maybe with lot's of rain. Expect all of this in the next 36-48 hours and then afterwards.

Thank you

[cycloneye]

Ok folks let's cut the personal talk and focus on 92L please.

[Noah]

Noah - it isn't named yet...it's not even a depression yet. Our local people have been saying that we'll be getting rain most of this week courtesy of this blob. Beyond that, it's kind of hard to know. Some of the models have it coming through the state, while others have it crossing through the southern part of FL, out into the Gulf, then looping back into the western side of the peninsula somewhere.

So - not really sure when to expect what beyond what our people are saying right now.

Thank you

[Air Force Met]

Look im not going to argue with a Professional Met..As per Im far from it...Spelling aside...I have been watching the GFS for years now and its there in black and white...Right or Wrong...I Don't like its setup this time...Its not what i would look for in Early Oct...Hands down..

What it is you don't like? I'm not saying I am sold on it...just trying to get people to give reasons here...not opinions. This is not an argument or a debate. I am just curious what it is you don't like. I don't think it's asking too much to ask specifics...is it? What is it you don't like and what would you look for in early october...hand down?

I guess the real question is this: What do YOU think it is going to do and why...with why being the real question...not gut feelings...but data. I've explained why I think it will be a hybrid...cold front coming down...upper low to the west...dry air...baroclinic forcing...classic hybrid system if it gets going at all.

Now...what do you think it will do and why? GFS solution aside (but seeing how other models are resembling the upper air pattern...should be a really good reason)...what are the reasons for the forecast?

[WeatherEmperor]

I dunno about any of you guys, but Im sticking with AirForceMet on this one.

<RICKY>

[Air Force Met]

I dunno about any of you guys, but Im sticking with AirForceMet on this one.

<RICKY>

Thanks. I think people are very nervous given the fact that Katrina and Rita came from the same place as 92L. The BIG BIG BIG difference this time around is 1) K&R didn't have an upper low to contend with and 2) K&R didn't have a strong cold front pushing down into the GOM...which will bring TONS of dry air and upper level shear. This will NOT become a K&R situation. The atmosphere as a whole is far less than ideal.

[NastyCat4]

I go with the flyboy. I worked with lotsa AF mets over the years, and they call them like they see them.

[jax]

I dunno about any of you guys, but Im sticking with AirForceMet on this one.

<RICKY>

I'm sticking with CHISTY and dixiebreeze... full blown hurricane.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Look im not going to argue with a Professional Met..As per Im far from it...Spelling aside...I have been watching the GFS for years now and its there in black and white...Right or Wrong...I Don't like its setup this time...Its not what i would look for in Early Oct...Hands down..

What it is you don't like? I'm not saying I am sold on it...just trying to get people to give reasons here...not opinions. This is not an argument or a debate. I am just curious what it is you don't like. I don't think it's asking too much to ask specifics...is it? What is it you don't like and what would you look for in early october...hand down?

I guess the real question is this: What do YOU think it is going to do and why...with why being the real question...not gut feelings...but data. I've explained why I think it will be a hybrid...cold front coming down...upper low to the west...dry air...baroclinic forcing...classic hybrid system if it gets going at all.

Now...what do you think it will do and why? GFS solution aside (but seeing how other models are resembling the upper air pattern...should be a really good reason)...what are the reasons for the forecast?

NO Hybrid..I think That the Front wont even come close to where they forecast it to be This weekend and that the SST's are Plenty warm enought to support a TC of the warmcore nature I see a Moderate TS either East of FL or perhaps in the Gulf long before it gets caught up in The upper air flow as a East coast Rain Maker...

[NastyCat4]

I'm sticking with CHISTY and dixiebreeze... full blown hurricane.

Could you please explain where it will get its convection from, so as to form a totally closed off system? I just don't see it--storm is spread out over 1,000 miles, and circulation is way away from the T-storms, which are heading into a cold front.

[jax]

I'm sticking with CHISTY and dixiebreeze... full blown hurricane.

Could you please explain where it will get its convection from, so as to form a totally closed off system? I just don't see it--storm is spread out over 1,000 miles, and circulation is way away from the T-storms, which are heading into a cold front.

I have no idea...

[nequad]

I'm sticking with CHISTY and dixiebreeze... full blown hurricane.

You're going to ride with those two over the opinion of an honest to goodness real life MET? Whatever.


It's October folks...not early Sept. Listen to the MET.