92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Swimdude]

I dunno about any of you guys, but Im sticking with AirForceMet on this one.

<RICKY>

Thanks. I think people are very nervous given the fact that Katrina and Rita came from the same place as 92L. The BIG BIG BIG difference this time around is 1) K&R didn't have an upper low to contend with and 2) K&R didn't have a strong cold front pushing down into the GOM...which will bring TONS of dry air and upper level shear. This will NOT become a K&R situation. The atmosphere as a whole is far less than ideal.

Yup, totally true. Perhaps this will just be a nice rain-maker for parts of Florida and not have too much chance to develop. Let's beat the record; that's what I want!

[vaffie]

FWIW the 12Z UKMET still shows whatever form this system is going into the east coast of FL and then still going back towards the NW Florida coast while in the GOM, but it has really backed off this full circle loop it did before in the GOM.

<RICKY>

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Though I prefer the GFDL, I usually like the UKMET too, but this time I don't buy their track--it has Stan lose it's closed circulation or for all intents and purposes be in the Pacific Ocean in 36 hours--tomorrow night! Look at Stan: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
That's not gonna happen! At this rate of atellite intensification, Stan tomorrow night will be a major hurricane!

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There has been an unstable shear environment surrounding INVEST.92L with fluctuating shear amounts. Shear is decreasing in an area ahead of the system, but just beyond that and further west there is increasing shear - this is attempting to spread over Florida into the western Bahamas. To the east of INVEST.92L or in the eastern part of the system, shear is increasing as well. This means that INVEST.92L may fluctuate in terms of organization and intensity, at least somewhat.

Who agrees?

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW the 12Z UKMET still shows whatever form this system is going into the east coast of FL and then still going back towards the NW Florida coast while in the GOM, but it has really backed off this full circle loop it did before in the GOM.

<RICKY>

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Though I prefer the GFDL, I usually like the UKMET too, but this time I don't buy their track--it has Stan lose it's closed circulation or for all intents and purposes be in the Pacific Ocean in 36 hours--tomorrow night! Look at Stan: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
That's not gonna happen! At this rate of atellite intensification, Stan tomorrow night will be a major hurricane!

Yeah that is true. Im still waiting for this website I look at to update with the 12Z GFS and GFDL to see what new data they show. I know the model output has already come out, but Im just waiting for all the graphics to come out so I can better examine and interpret it.

<RICKY>

[cjrciadt]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There has been an unstable shear environment surrounding INVEST.92L with fluctuating shear amounts. Shear is decreasing in an area ahead of the system, but just beyond that and further west there is increasing shear - this is attempting to spread over Florida into the western Bahamas. To the east of INVEST.92L or in the eastern part of the system, shear is increasing as well. This means that INVEST.92L may fluctuate in terms of organization and intensity, at least somewhat.

Who agrees?

Me

[NastyCat4]

I agree--this is why it will not become totally tropical. The circulation is way South, near the Florida Strait (24.5). The moisture is far North, and stretches out for 1,000 miles. This one isn't closing off---a big rainmaker and a mess, but most likely a hybrid.

[MiamiensisWx]

WeatherEmperor, you can also see my Atlantic Basin Shear Discussion thread for more shear charts!

[WeatherEmperor]

WeatherEmperor, you can also see my Atlantic Basin Shear Discussion thread for more shear charts!

excellent. will get right to it.

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

excellent. will get right to it.

<RICKY>

Thanks! I have no idea why my thread is just not seeming that active... I really think my shear thread should be a sticky since it can be very useful at times likely!

[NastyCat4]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

The BAM and LBAR models seem to love the "right hook" senario--they played this exact one with Katrina. The track on this looks extremely unlikely, given the location of the minimal circulation. Why does the NHC even bother with these useless models anymore?

[mvtrucking]

Yes, I see a spin there on the WV loop. Are you sure it hasn't yet reached the surface or even close to the surface? Do you see sfc reports from there? Thanks for your posts.

I'm positive...unless I failed METSAT (which I didn't..got an A)

Get a better sat image...go to the GHCC and hi res loop. Never use the SSD site for vis imagery...it's not updated as often and you can get a better resolution over at the GHCC...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

AFM,
I still don't see how you guys can tell the difference between surface circulation, midlevel, etc. I guess you have to know what your looking at?
Great job by the way..

[CHRISTY]

[CHRISTY]

[MiamiensisWx]

Models have shifted slightly north and right...

[wzrgirl1]

Models have shifted slightly north and right...

can't get my models to load where are most of them headed?

[Taffy]

What an icky, wet, windy week it is gonna be. Some start to Fall.

[WeatherEmperor]

What an icky, wet, windy week it is gonna be. Some start to Fall.

Oh tell me about it. The past couple days we have had so much rain in south florida its ridiculous and now this system to deal with? blah.

<RICKY>

[CHRISTY]

[img]WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2005
...WET WEATHER STILL EXPECTED BUT WHERE WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
DETERMINED...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IS TAKING ITS TIME GETTING TO US. MODELS HAD INITIALLY
DEPICTED WAVE PASSAGE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT
WE`LL START SEEING THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE WAVE TUE AFTN. OUR
LOCAL TROPICAL WORKSTATION ETA RUN FROM LAST NIGHT (00Z/OCTOBER 3)
EVEN HAS THE LOW DEVELOPING INTO A TC BUT HANGING OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FL BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH PICKS IT UP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THAT THE NAM DEEPENS A HYBRID SYSTEM OVER THE AREA AND
THE GFS KEEPS IT A STRONG WAVE UNTIL IT REACHES THE ERN GULF...AND
THEN IT DEVELOPS A TROPICAL LOW. 12Z NAM DOES SLOW THIS SYSTEM
DOWN...MORE TOWARDS THE WORKSTATION ETA...AND IF WE STAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN AS IF THE SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE GULF. ATTM WILL RELUCTANTLY GO INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR RAINS TUE AFTN FOR THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH AND KEEP AT 50
POPS ELSEWHERE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ON WED...WILL KEEP POPS AT
50 PCT ALL DAY.

GIVEN THE STRONG SFC HIGH FORECAST TO PERSIST NE OF THE AREA...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHUD BE TIGHT THRU THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINDS
STRONG EACH DAY IN MY PERIOD...THOUGH IF GFS IS CORRECT MAY SEE A
SLIGHT WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE WAVE AXIS SLIPS WEST OF US.

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MEAN SMALLER DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPS.
MAX TEMPS WILL DROP MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL...WHEREAS MIN TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE BAHAMAS MAKES THE EXTENDED FORECAST AN
EDUCATED GUESS. THOUGH THE WORKSTATION ETA SOLUTION HAS MERIT...
AND WAS RATHER SUCCESSFUL AT LONGER RANGES WITH BOTH KATRINA AND
RITA...I`M NOT WILLING TO BUY OFF ON A SHARP RIGHT TURN GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND THE FACT THAT THE EVENTUAL
"KICKER" IS STILL DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. STILL...BECAUSE
THE NAM TOOK A JOG TO THE RIGHT AT 12Z...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT 50/50 RATHER THAN NUDGING INTO THE NUMEROUS (LIKELY)
CATEGORY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS FOR OTHER PARAMETERS...LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES AS NO MATTER
HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK SHOULD SEE
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE. AS FOR WINDS...GIVEN THAT THERE WILL
BE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF NEAR 1000 MB AND A CONTINUING MID
ATLANTIC RIDGE ABOVE 1025 MB...UNTIL THE SFC LOW "DECIDES" HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST IT WILL TRACK EXPECT GOOD GRADIENT WINDS TO CONTINUE
ON ITS NORTH SIDE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

AGAIN...CUSTOMERS USING OUR DIGITAL PRODUCTS ARE REMINDED THAT THIS
SITUATION MAY CHANGE DRASTICALLY ESPECIALLY IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPS ANYWHERE NEAR THE PENINSULA. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND TOTALS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND...STILL REMAINS A DIFFICULT CALL. FOR THREE
STRAIGHT RUNS THE GFS WAS HINTING AT MORE SOUTHERLY PUSH WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FRONT...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SLIPPED BACK A BIT IN TIMING.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT
SUNDAY BUT HAVE CUT BACK A TOUCH ON COVERAGE/CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
THIRD OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUR OFFSHORE
WATERS...WITH SCEC CONDITIONS IN THE NEARSHORE. GIVEN THAT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS NEXT INTO MID WEEK...
HAVE NO PLANS TO DROP ADVISORIES ATTM. SHUD TROPICAL WAVE BEGIN TO
DEVELOP INTO A LOW...WILL NEED TO BUMP WINDS UP AND POSSIBLY PUT UP
TS WATCHES. STAY TUNED.






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[MiamiensisWx]

can't get my models to load where are most of them headed?

Most of them take the system first into southeastern, southern, or east-central Florida.

[wzrgirl1]

can't get my models to load where are most of them headed?

Most of them take the system first into southeastern, southern, or east-central Florida.

peachy