92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jrod]

2x post

[WeatherEmperor]

If this storm is going to develop into anything significant (other than a big rain event with some wind...which is the least that will happen)...I think it will have to do it east of Florida...not west of Florida. West of Florida the environment is going to be too hostile to provide us with anything other than a hyrbid system. If it stays east of Florida...that is a different story. Further from the dry air and the upper levels will be better.

So...the question everyone should really be asking is: Where does it finally develop and track? That will determine if we are dealing with a hybrid system (GoM) or a tropical storm or hurricane (stays east of Florida).

In your professional opinion with the current model info we have, where is your best guess on this systems future track?

<RICKY>

[HurricaneQueen]

Chief Meteorologist (my fav) for local station expects this week to be rainy with some wind but never mentioned the system east of Fl. as being a big player. Actually, if it weren't for this thread, I wouldn't even be aware of it. My thoughts all along have been that this Invest will be nothing more than a huge rainmaker for much of the FL. penisula with localized flooding. Some areas (ours included) have had copious amounts of rain the past week (3-4" some days) and really don't need this but I'll take it over a tropical storm or worse.

Don't forget your umbrella

Lynn

[bigmike]

Bob Breck (NOLA met) just showed his "Vipir" model. It takes this into the Gulf, just south of Louisiana, and then the cold front pushes it back to the northeast kinda like the current LBAR, just a little further south.

I'm surprised this clown is still in town. I would have thought after Katrina he would be in hiding or unemployed or both Him and his viper should be in exile in Russia somewhere

[WeatherEmperor]

Bob Breck (NOLA met) just showed his "Vipir" model. It takes this into the Gulf, just south of Louisiana, and then the cold front pushes it back to the northeast kinda like the current LBAR, just a little further south.

I'm surprised this clown is still in town. I would have thought after Katrina he would be in hiding or unemployed or both Him and his viper should be in exile in Russia somewhere

LOL! Ah come on give the guy a break.

<RICKY>

[Derek Ortt]

regardless as to what the GFS may say (and its solution of the upper winds decreasing is utter bunk unless Stan dissipates... that model doesnt even have Stan), do not bet on the upper winds decreasing for about a couple of days

[WeatherEmperor]

regardless as to what the GFS may say (and its solution of the upper winds decreasing is utter bunk unless Stan dissipates... that model doesnt even have Stan), do not bet on the upper winds decreasing for about a couple of days

what are you saying? That upperlevel winds for 92L will become unfavorable?

<RICKY>

[jrod]

regardless as to what the GFS may say (and its solution of the upper winds decreasing is utter bunk unless Stan dissipates... that model doesnt even have Stan), do not bet on the upper winds decreasing for about a couple of days

what are you saying? That upperlevel winds for 92L will become unfavorable?

<RICKY>

Since when have they been favorable?

[johngaltfla]

I love this -

FXUS62 KTBW 031730
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2005

...WET WEATHER STILL EXPECTED BUT WHERE WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
DETERMINED...

That would be amusing except I haven't had to break out the plywood at all this season. I really don't enjoy humping that stuff up the stairs.

[ronjon]

From Clark (MET) at CFHC:

There appears to be some broad turning near Cat Island in the Bahamas, or approximately the position Storm Hunter referenced. However, this is likely a surface reflection of a sharp but narrow upper-level trough with an embedded weak upper-level low in about the same location. Whether or not it is directly associated with an upper-low or not, conditions in this are are unfavorable for development due to strong northerly shear (partially along the west side of the narrow trough, partially due to the outflow from Stan).

The area toward the east, however, is a much more favorable region for development. There is strong diffluence (divergent winds) aloft with an upper-level ridge building in across the area. While there does not appear to be any surface center within the midst of the large convective field across the region from well east of Daytona Beach SE-ward to Puerto Rico, there are strong low-level easterly winds at low levels on the north side of this area and weak overall winds on the south side of this area. Given how one sustained convective burst and the pressure falls that are associated with such an event can lead to the development of a surface circulation, I'd say it's a good bet that something ultimately forms within the midst of that cloud mass.

The precise location of the circulation formation has little impact upon the ultimate track -- west-northwest, then northwest -- but does impact what areas will see what weather from this system. Overall, Florida is in for at least a good bit of rain through the late part of the week and into the weekend...possibly more depending on what happens. My best guess is that something forms in the midst of the convection currently near 24N/70-72W and moves toward the WNW toward the state of Florida over the next couple of days. How much of something forms is yet to be determined.

The setup for something to form is quite similar to how Katrina, Rita, and Franklin formed over the course of this season with an upper-low and the associated diffluence aloft interacting with a tropical wave to its northeast; as the upper-low weakens and/or moves out, tropical development can begin in earnest. The ultimate track is likely to be somewhere between Katrina and Franklin's tracks -- i.e. west-northwest across the state of Florida, perhaps into the northern Gulf S of the Fl. Panhandle -- with intensity a crapshoot at this point. It could be a weak vortex that never reaches depression status, or it could be a minimal hurricane. Best bet is for something in the middle.

[Anthysteg]

Bob Breck (NOLA met) just showed his "Vipir" model. It takes this into the Gulf, just south of Louisiana, and then the cold front pushes it back to the northeast kinda like the current LBAR, just a little further south.

I'm surprised this clown is still in town. I would have thought after Katrina he would be in hiding or unemployed or both Him and his viper should be in exile in Russia somewhere

LOL! Ah come on give the guy a break.

<RICKY>

Actually on the news he just said this storm will NEVER EVER possibly make landfall in Louisiana and the front will indefinitely squash it.


Trust me, N.O Weather Vets can vouch he's a moron XD. He said Dennis would possibly make landfall in South America earlier this year lol.

[tracyswfla]

regardless as to what the GFS may say (and its solution of the upper winds decreasing is utter bunk unless Stan dissipates... that model doesnt even have Stan), do not bet on the upper winds decreasing for about a couple of days

what are you saying? That upperlevel winds for 92L will become unfavorable?

<RICKY>

Since when have they been favorable?

LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED...BUT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND
REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE TOMORROW OR WEDNESDAY.

[Ivanhater]

lol, go get em tracy!

[Air Force Met]

Since when have they been favorable?

Exactly. They are not favorable...and the shear from Stan will keep it that way for a couple of days.

As to the question someone had about the track...that is entirely too early to call. The front IS coming down (even though some think it's overdone...the temps may be by a degree or two...but the sfc presentation is most certainly not)...and that will influence the future track greatly. I know what the models are showing...but if we get development in the GOM...it will be hybrid. The best chance this thing has is to get rid of the current low level vorticity...seperate itself from the wave...let the wave go west into the GOM and get obsorbed by the front...and then develop something with the MLC further east. That is why this is very complicated. The models are developng the wave. The way it looks...that will be one sheared system if it develops and the best best is some baroclinic processes to deepen the low. If it seperates...then the MLC can work down underneath the anticyclone.

To be very honest...ain't nobody knowin' where it's going (other than a wild guess).

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 75.2 275./11.1
6 22.9 75.9 262./ 6.6
12 23.2 76.6 289./ 7.3
18 23.7 77.4 304./ 8.7
24 24.5 78.1 323./10.6
30 25.1 79.0 301./ 9.9
36 25.9 79.8 314./11.1
42 26.5 80.8 304./10.6
48 27.3 81.6 312./10.6
54 28.0 82.6 306./10.7
60 28.5 83.6 299./10.6
66 28.8 84.1 296./ 5.5
72 29.2 84.3 335./ 4.4
78 29.5 84.8 303./ 4.8
84 29.3 85.2 247./ 3.9
90 29.2 85.1 173./ .8
96 29.6 84.5 63./ 6.1
102 30.1 83.7 57./ 9.1
108 30.4 82.6 75./10.2
114 31.5 80.4 64./21.2
120 33.4 77.8 53./29.2
126 35.7 75.1 51./31.9

[Rainband]

All the Locals here and the Spaghetti models and the setup show whatever develops will be an eastern GOM threat...unless something seriously changes. Dennis phillips, our local Met has been on the money with all his "guesses" this year. He says what ever develops or doesn't will move very close to our area and thats why I will be paying attention. I will take the rain..we need it.

[Ivanhater]

ewwww...that run is to close for comfort

[DESTRUCTION5]

Here is the 18Z GFS... . Develops it off the east coast and brings it into the Carolinas




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricasne Intercept Research Team

Here you go Air Force Met..

GFS=Good for S#@%

[johngaltfla]

All the Locals here and the Spaghetti models and the setup show whatever develops will be an eastern GOM threat...unless something seriously changes. Dennis phillips, our local Met has been on the money with all his "guesses" this year. He says what ever develops or doesn't will move very close to our area and thats why I will be paying attention. I will take the rain..we need it.

Rain yes. High winds and rain, uh, no.

Like I said, I don't want to put the plywood up at all this season. I'm on strike against the hurricane season. Especially this one.

[Air Force Met]

Here you go Air Force Met..

GFS=Good for S#@%

Please grow up just a little if you want to discuss meteorology we me...if not...keep it up. I've been doing this for 18 years...and really don't need "that" kind of discussion and won't have it. If it's good for nothing...then ignore it. If you had any idea at how "I" looked at models you would realize I do not look at the sfc presentation...but how the upper levels are being handled which dictate how the sfc will react. IN this case...a BIG upper low over the eastern GOM is what I am looking at...not the sfc presentation. Never have. We'll see if that upper low is there in 36-48 hours...and if it is...who cares what the sfc shows...because bottom line is with a large upper low in the eastern GOM...you are NOT getting anything remotely resembling a hurricane in the eastern GOM. Period.

Posting a sfc chart of a model like the GFS is like people on this board that post a sfc chart of the western atlantic and talk about the huge subtropical ridge that will steer the hurricane west...not knowing that a hurricane could really care less what is at the sfc steering it...because it is all about the upper levels. That is what I look at...the 850...700...500...300..and 200...then I go to the ARL and pull out the 400...~LND

That's how I look at it. I make a forecast on how the upper levels are reacting...not by what the model is placing at the sfc. If you do that...then you really don't undestand weather and how to interprete what the models are saying to you...and that could be the problem.