Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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mtm4319
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#181 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Oct 03, 2005 4:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:I do wonder what they're basing this 50 kt/60 mph on. The satellite loops look good, but the last Dvorak estimate was 35 kt, and the max flight level wind observed was 41 kt.


In the discussion you will find out why they increased the winds.


I just read it - the same explanation that Floydbuster gave. :)
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#182 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Oct 03, 2005 4:08 pm

"FROM 700 MB DUE TO AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS.."

Here we are paying for these flights for a system that most likely will have absolutely no effects on the CONUS, and the Mexican government is going to limit the airspace we can fly in?

Maybe there is other reasoning?
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#183 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 03, 2005 4:13 pm

By the way, right now Stan "stands" alone as the only existing tropical cyclone in the planet Earth.
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#184 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:27 pm

they key wll be how far the westerly shear axis to the north drops down.

could go anywhere from a cat 3 at landfall, to a dissipating system, the shear axis will make that much of a difference
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#185 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:29 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:"FROM 700 MB DUE TO AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS.."

Here we are paying for these flights for a system that most likely will have absolutely no effects on the CONUS, and the Mexican government is going to limit the airspace we can fly in?

Maybe there is other reasoning?


That is just absurd. :roll:
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#186 Postby artist » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:38 pm

everyone - where did you here they wouldn't let us fly????
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#187 Postby RattleMan » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:41 pm

artist wrote:everyone - where did you here they wouldn't let us fly????


Stan's 5 PM Discussion.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2039.shtml
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#188 Postby artist » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:47 pm

thanks Rattleman!
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#189 Postby WindRunner » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:08 pm

The 2nd 00Z runs:

WHXX01 KWBC 040046
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM STAN (AL202005) ON 20051004 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051004 0000 051004 1200 051005 0000 051005 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 93.0W 20.0N 94.6W 19.7N 96.5W 19.5N 98.4W
BAMM 20.1N 93.0W 20.1N 94.7W 19.7N 96.5W 19.3N 98.4W
A98E 20.1N 93.0W 20.2N 94.8W 20.3N 96.3W 19.9N 97.9W
LBAR 20.1N 93.0W 20.3N 94.9W 20.9N 96.8W 21.7N 98.6W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 80KTS 90KTS
DSHP 55KTS 68KTS 80KTS 90KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051006 0000 051007 0000 051008 0000 051009 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 100.4W 19.5N 104.2W 20.1N 107.6W 21.4N 110.3W
BAMM 19.1N 100.1W 19.0N 102.9W 20.4N 106.2W 23.0N 109.2W
A98E 19.4N 99.5W 20.3N 103.1W 21.7N 105.8W 24.7N 105.8W
LBAR 22.4N 99.6W 24.4N 101.0W 24.9N 101.1W 26.4N 100.3W
SHIP 99KTS 109KTS 110KTS 104KTS
DSHP 85KTS 36KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 93.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 20.3N LONM12 = 91.7W DIRM12 = 251DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 89.8W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

They have two 00Z runs posted, this one (#2) initialized .1 more W than the first one was, and DSHP has a drastic 48hrs change (100kts down to 85kts).

This is the set to use, I guess.
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#190 Postby vaffie » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:50 pm

Models shifting slowly northeastward... The latest model runs are slowing Stan (with the exception of the BAMS/M/D and LBAR) and more and more of them are either going into Mexico and then returning, or making a loop in the BC and heading north, east, or northeast. See for yourself. These adjustments are concerning for the Gulf Coast to say the least...

Image
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#191 Postby skysummit » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:51 pm

The majority of those models are JUNK.
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#192 Postby gilbert88 » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:00 pm

This sucks. If this thing hits that area as a Cat. 2 or higher, it will be a MESS. Possibly worse than Hurricane Diana. :(
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#193 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:11 pm

this likely will be worse than Diana, unless the sheared tropical storm scenario plays out

this will be coming in south of Diana, and could impact the city of Veracruz itself, or maybe the capital of Veracruz state, Xalapa
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#194 Postby Rainband » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:38 pm

Mexico has had a busy year!!
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#195 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:40 pm

Rainband wrote:Mexico has had a busy year!!


Unfortunately. They deserve a break just as much as the Gulf Coast and Florida do.
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#196 Postby SkeetoBite » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:50 pm

Image
Last edited by SkeetoBite on Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#197 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:56 pm

Pasch says:

"MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE ONE"

If 100 mph is conservative...I'd hate to see what Stan could be
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#198 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:56 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Pasch says:

"MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE ONE"

If 100 mph is conservative...I'd hate to see what Stan could be


:eek:
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#199 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:00 pm

THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS INCREASING

Interesting quote from the Discussion that Richard Pasch wrote.
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#200 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:03 pm

THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS INCREASING

Interesting quote from the Discussion that Richard Pasch wrote.


snippet from NHC 11:00pm EST advisory:

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT STAN COULD BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED WHEN IT REACHES THE
COAST...AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION DRAGGED
EASTWARD INTO THE ABOVEMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THE TRACK MODELS
HAVE BECOME DIVERGENT AND SOME...E.G. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND NOGAPS...DO NOT A LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 4 DAYS.

Looks as though some models want to pull it NE eventually :eek:
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