92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Rainband]

Here you go Air Force Met..

GFS=Good for S#@%

Please grow up just a little if you want to discuss meteorology we me...if not...keep it up. I've been doing this for 18 years...and really don't need "that" kind of discussion and won't have it. If it's good for nothing...then ignore it. If you had any idea at how "I" looked at models you would realize I do not look at the sfc presentation...but how the upper levels are being handled which dictate how the sfc will react. IN this case...a BIG upper low over the eastern GOM is what I am looking at...not the sfc presentation. Never have. We'll see if that upper low is there in 36-48 hours...and if it is...who cares what the sfc shows...because bottom line is with a large upper low in the eastern GOM...you are NOT getting anything remotely resembling a hurricane in the eastern GOM. Period.

Posting a sfc chart of a model like the GFS is like people on this board that post a sfc chart of the western atlantic and talk about the huge subtropical ridge that will steer the hurricane west...not knowing that a hurricane could really care less what is at the sfc steering it...because it is all about the upper levels. That is what I look at...the 850...700...500...300..and 200...then I go to the ARL and pull out the 400...~LND

That's how I look at it. I make a forecast on how the upper levels are reacting...not by what the model is placing at the sfc. If you do that...then you really don't undestand weather and how to interprete what the models are saying to you...and that could be the problem.

Excellent post ..can you elaborate on the bold part thanks

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFDL came out finally. Well I'm gonna get some good rains.
Hopefully no strong winds though.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[wzrgirl1]

it's going to be a wet week....forecasted 70 percent each day this week....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The models are too far west in initializing this system??

[Air Force Met]

Excellent post ..can you elaborate on the bold part thanks

The ARL is the Air Research Lab. http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html

You can select more levels...more products than what people here post from the NCEP site...which I think a lot of people think that the only thing the GFS runs is what is found on that site. It's not. There are layers upon layers and various products...like RH at various levels...streamlines...mixing layers...vertical velocities...etc. YOu can select the exact area you want...with the exact size...at 6 hourly intervals (or 3 hours if you only want to look 84 hours into the future. I look at the 400 for steering of strong TS and hurricanes. It is a good indication of a compromise b/w the 300 and 500...a good mean layer steering...remembering also that I don't necessarily pay attention to where it places the sfc feature...only the flow and try to see if the sfc feature should be there looking at the flow. Couple that with the 200 mb winds and the RH's...and then you get a forecast...which is what I am doing with 92L. Bottom line is that upper low will be there...every global model is showing it...and if it is there...the only thing you will get in the eastern GOM is a hybrid. Granted the GFS doesn't have the best handle on the sfc...but I am not looking at that. I am looking at the upper and mid levels and producing a sfc forecast...which is what a meteorologist does.

I don't care what anyone thinks about the models...but I promise you and will bet you my house that a model is a better forecaster than any one person. If you take a person and place them in a room with nothing but the past charts and the current ones...and have them produce an all level forecast based strickly on the current and past charts...not knowing what any model was saying...I promise you a model will beat you most every time...especially 48+ hours out. How do I know? I did it...in school...it was called FLEA and SNAIL..which was the nightmare for all forecaster wanna-be's. We had to take the current charts...analyze them...use our rules of thumb and produce forecast charts.

The models will beat you everytime when you try to be independant. The best forecasters take each of the models...their strengths and weaknesses...and they blend them together and produce a forecast (which is what I am doing with 92L). However...on your own you can never out-forecast a model without the help of another model.

[jrod]

Some of the long range models are hnting this and the approaching cold front will merge or something and become the first nor'easter of the season.


I can't see the future but I know there are water temps warm enough to support a hurricane in this area's path and the blob is heading straight for me. If/when a LLC develops this could get a little easier to predict. One thing I am certain of is Florida will see a lot of rain from this blob in the days ahead.

[Ixolib]

GFDL came out finally. Well I'm gonna get some good rains.
Hopefully no strong winds though.

Those model tracks look a lot like the early tracks for Tropical Depression #10.

[Air Force Met]

Those model tracks look a lot like the early tracks for Tropical Depression #10.

By 10...do you mean "10" or the "10 that turned into 12?"

Big difference there. If by the former...then yes. If by the latter...then no...the upper air pattern isn't close to resembling 12/Katrina.

Bottom line is we won't know about any of this until an LLC with convection actually gets established. That will totally determine the fate of the system. If in the GOM...it's a hybrid. If it eastern FL..it's tropical...but sheared with some dry air.

[Rainband]

NOT really

[Rainband]

Those model tracks look a lot like the early tracks for Tropical Depression #10.

By 10...do you mean "10" or the "10 that turned into 12?"

Big difference there. If by the former...then yes. If by the latter...then no...the upper air pattern isn't close to resembling 12/Katrina.

Bottom line is we won't know about any of this until an LLC with convection actually gets established. That will totally determine the fate of the system. If in the GOM...it's a hybrid. If it eastern FL..it's tropical...but sheared with some dry air.

By hybrid, do you mean like 93

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Those model tracks look a lot like the early tracks for Tropical Depression #10.

By 10...do you mean "10" or the "10 that turned into 12?"

Big difference there. If by the former...then yes. If by the latter...then no...the upper air pattern isn't close to resembling 12/Katrina.

Bottom line is we won't know about any of this until an LLC with convection actually gets established. That will totally determine the fate of the system. If in the GOM...it's a hybrid. If it eastern FL..it's tropical...but sheared with some dry air.

By hybrid, do you mean like 93

How strong can a hybrid get?

[Ivanhater]

whats the difference between hybrid and subtropical?

[Air Force Met]

Those model tracks look a lot like the early tracks for Tropical Depression #10.

By 10...do you mean "10" or the "10 that turned into 12?"

Big difference there. If by the former...then yes. If by the latter...then no...the upper air pattern isn't close to resembling 12/Katrina.

Bottom line is we won't know about any of this until an LLC with convection actually gets established. That will totally determine the fate of the system. If in the GOM...it's a hybrid. If it eastern FL..it's tropical...but sheared with some dry air.

By hybrid, do you mean like 93

Oh no...you mean the super storm in 1993? No no nonononono no.

I mean like Allison in 2001 (without the stalling). Remember how she looked? All lop-sided with the LLC on the west side? The GOM is a great place for hybrid development.

[krysof]

whats the difference between hybrid and subtropical?

doesn't a hybrid have tropical and extratropical characteristics, but it's a warm core and sub tropical storm is not a warm core, can someone verify that because I'm not sure- I also think both of them rely of baroclinic support to strengthen

Didn't Maria this year rely on that support?

[HeatherAKC]

FWIW: I happened to catch a Tropical Update on TWC this evening and S.Lyons feels the focus needs to be on the area over/to the north of Puerto Rico, not the Bahamas.

Comments?

[Air Force Met]

whats the difference between hybrid and subtropical?

They are the same thing. The hybrid/subtropical storm deepens by barotropic and baroclinic forces...not barotropic warm core processes in pure tropical systems.

[Rainband]

Those model tracks look a lot like the early tracks for Tropical Depression #10.

By 10...do you mean "10" or the "10 that turned into 12?"

Big difference there. If by the former...then yes. If by the latter...then no...the upper air pattern isn't close to resembling 12/Katrina.

Bottom line is we won't know about any of this until an LLC with convection actually gets established. That will totally determine the fate of the system. If in the GOM...it's a hybrid. If it eastern FL..it's tropical...but sheared with some dry air.

By hybrid, do you mean like 93

Oh no...you mean the super storm in 1993? No no nonononono no.

I mean like Allison in 2001 (without the stalling). Remember how she looked? All lop-sided with the LLC on the west side? The GOM is a great place for hybrid development.

Good..I think . Chris WXman57 made a ref to 93 thats why I asked. Thanks for all the info. You teach me a lot dude. I really appreciate it

[Ivanhater]

whats the difference between hybrid and subtropical?

They are the same thing. The hybrid/subtropical storm deepens by barotropic and baroclinic forces...not barotropic warm core processes in pure tropical systems.

ah, ok..thanks afm

[SouthFloridawx]