92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tracyswfla]

whats the difference between hybrid and subtropical?

They are the same thing. The hybrid/subtropical storm deepens by barotropic and baroclinic forces...not barotropic warm core processes in pure tropical systems.

Thank you for all of your very valued educated information!

[krysof]

a perfect example of a hybrid is the 1991 perfect storm

[Ivanhater]

darn that lbar, right over pcola! good thing that model sucks

[cjrciadt]

darn that lbar, right over pcola! good thing that model sucks

How to read the LBAR:

[Ixolib]

Those model tracks look a lot like the early tracks for Tropical Depression #10.

By 10...do you mean "10" or the "10 that turned into 12?"

Big difference there. If by the former...then yes. If by the latter...then no...the upper air pattern isn't close to resembling 12/Katrina.

Bottom line is we won't know about any of this until an LLC with convection actually gets established. That will totally determine the fate of the system. If in the GOM...it's a hybrid. If it eastern FL..it's tropical...but sheared with some dry air.

I'm talking about the 10 that turned into 12 that turned into the K storm.

And while I don't have a link, I distinctly recall some of the early model runs looking very similar to these tracks for 92L. Nothing more and nothing less, with no climatology considered. There were runs that showed Katrina running up the peninsula (just like this run), then into the Big Bend, then the eastern panhandle, then the western pandhandle, then....

Again, I realize the climatology is completely different - I'm only referring to the "look". But this is an excellent time for me to get better educated on hybrid systems, regardless of the models!!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051004 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051004 0000 051004 1200 051005 0000 051005 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 76.3W 23.3N 77.6W 23.8N 78.9W 24.9N 80.3W
BAMM 23.3N 76.3W 23.6N 78.1W 24.2N 79.7W 25.3N 81.2W
A98E 23.3N 76.3W 23.5N 78.7W 24.0N 80.6W 24.9N 81.9W
LBAR 23.3N 76.3W 23.8N 78.3W 24.2N 80.3W 24.9N 82.3W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051006 0000 051007 0000 051008 0000 051009 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.4N 81.9W 29.4N 84.2W 33.1N 82.0W 40.6N 72.3W
BAMM 26.6N 82.4W 29.0N 84.2W 30.7N 82.8W 34.7N 72.0W
A98E 26.0N 83.0W 28.5N 83.1W 31.9N 80.5W 40.3N 70.3W
LBAR 25.8N 84.1W 27.8N 86.6W 31.0N 86.6W 35.7N 80.5W
SHIP 59KTS 72KTS 77KTS 69KTS
DSHP 58KTS 71KTS 47KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 76.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 23.1N LONM12 = 73.8W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 23.0N LONM24 = 71.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z Models.

[seaswing]

I haven't been around in a few days so when is this supposed to (if it does) affected central, northern Florida? we have had rain off and on all day (which we did need)

[skysummit]

I no longer even see anything in this area to be of interest. Is there still something there?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I no longer even see anything in this area to be of interest. Is there still something there?

Yes: good for rain, but bad for winds and the path it takes:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[skysummit]

I know where they are talking about, I just don't see anything there of concern. Everything is real broad. Maybe in another day or two if conditions improve.

[Rainband]

I no longer even see anything in this area to be of interest. Is there still something there?

No interest to LA but a definate interest to Florida. Going to be wet here for some time to come.

[seaswing]

I no longer even see anything in this area to be of interest. Is there still something there?

Yes: good for rain, but bad for winds and the path it takes:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

What kind of winds are we talking about and when is this expected???????

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Models shift a few miles west. Looks like some big surf this weekend.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I no longer even see anything in this area to be of interest. Is there still something there?

Yes: good for rain, but bad for winds and the path it takes:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

What kind of winds are we talking about and when is this expected???????

ABC Action news Met
Dennis Phillips said we could get anything from rain and little wind
to hurricane conditions...depending on what this does over the next
3 days...If this does follow the 00Z models and develops the impacts
would occur Friday.

[Cookiely]

Since when have they been favorable?

Exactly. They are not favorable...and the shear from Stan will keep it that way for a couple of days.

As to the question someone had about the track...that is entirely too early to call. The front IS coming down (even though some think it's overdone...the temps may be by a degree or two...but the sfc presentation is most certainly not)...and that will influence the future track greatly. I know what the models are showing...but if we get development in the GOM...it will be hybrid. The best chance this thing has is to get rid of the current low level vorticity...seperate itself from the wave...let the wave go west into the GOM and get obsorbed by the front...and then develop something with the MLC further east. That is why this is very complicated. The models are developng the wave. The way it looks...that will be one sheared system if it develops and the best best is some baroclinic processes to deepen the low. If it seperates...then the MLC can work down underneath the anticyclone.

To be very honest...ain't nobody knowin' where it's going (other than a wild guess).

Do you remember The Storm With No Name, I believe it was in 1993 but I can't remember the month. I think it was February because it was so cold, because of the wind. My dachshund caught pneumonia and I hurt my achilles tendon because of that storm. I don't remember ever being that cold in my life. Sailboats and yachts tossed together like so much flotsam. Was that storm a hybrid? I never want to go through another one like that one.

[Brent]

I no longer even see anything in this area to be of interest. Is there still something there?

Yes: good for rain, but bad for winds and the path it takes:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

What kind of winds are we talking about and when is this expected???????

Starting late tomorrow. Most likely just gusty winds... nothing that will do much.

[Brent]

Do you remember The Storm With No Name, I believe it was in 1993 but I can't remember the month. I think it was February because it was so cold, because of the wind. My dachshund caught pneumonia and I hurt my achilles tendon because of that storm. I don't remember ever being that cold in my life. Sailboats and yachts tossed together like so much flotsam. Was that storm a hybrid? I never want to go through another one like that one.

The Superstorm of 1993???

In March. Boy do I remember that. A foot of snow here. There was a major severe weather event in Central Florida but there was even snow on the Gulf Coast. It was incredible.

[seaswing]

Since when have they been favorable?

Exactly. They are not favorable...and the shear from Stan will keep it that way for a couple of days.

As to the question someone had about the track...that is entirely too early to call. The front IS coming down (even though some think it's overdone...the temps may be by a degree or two...but the sfc presentation is most certainly not)...and that will influence the future track greatly. I know what the models are showing...but if we get development in the GOM...it will be hybrid. The best chance this thing has is to get rid of the current low level vorticity...seperate itself from the wave...let the wave go west into the GOM and get obsorbed by the front...and then develop something with the MLC further east. That is why this is very complicated. The models are developng the wave. The way it looks...that will be one sheared system if it develops and the best best is some baroclinic processes to deepen the low. If it seperates...then the MLC can work down underneath the anticyclone.

To be very honest...ain't nobody knowin' where it's going (other than a wild guess).

Do you remember The Storm With No Name, I believe it was in 1993 but I can't remember the month. I think it was February because it was so cold, because of the wind. My dachshund caught pneumonia and I hurt my achilles tendon because of that storm. I don't remember ever being that cold in my life. Sailboats and yachts tossed together like so much flotsam. Was that storm a hybrid? I never want to go through another one like that one.

I believe it was March 13th 1993. I remember that one VERY well. Lost trees power, and it became very cold!!! like a hurricane when it blew through.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That Superstorm had the magnitude in intensity of a Major Hurricane
(Cat 3). Only difference was that it was cold core and thus a winter
storm or hybrid.

[Ivanhater]

ah yes, i remember that storm, got lots of snow here too!