92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[bigmike]

Old model runs Christy.

[CHRISTY]

can you post the most recent ones!thanks

[audioslave8]

The southern end of this stalled out front seems to be the best chance for Tropical development. The convection near Puerto Rico has started to look healthier this evening. It seems to be starting to blow up a little in that region. looks like there will be a better chance there for a LLC to form there than further north. Whatcha all think??? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.9 76.3 275./12.0
6 23.1 77.2 282./ 8.8
12 23.6 77.9 306./ 8.3
18 24.5 78.6 318./10.4
24 25.4 79.8 311./14.0
30 26.1 81.1 296./13.7
36 26.6 82.4 292./13.1
42 27.4 83.4 310./11.6
48 28.0 84.1 307./ 8.5
54 28.4 85.2 291./10.7
60 28.8 85.8 306./ 6.1
66 29.1 86.4 296./ 6.6
72 29.2 87.0 280./ 5.0
78 29.0 87.5 246./ 4.9
84 28.7 87.7 218./ 3.3
90 28.6 87.5 120./ 1.8
96 28.4 87.2 118./ 3.5
102 28.4 86.6 94./ 5.3
108 28.5 86.1 73./ 5.0
114 28.9 85.2 67./ 8.1
120 29.3 84.2 68./ 9.4
126 29.7 83.6 55./ 7.3

[inotherwords]

Oy...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

[SamSagnella]

Okay...as of around 06z, the NHC is saying that Stan is currently moving toward the Mexican coast more rapidly than previously anticipated. If this is, and continues to be the case, then this should result in a more favorable upper level environment over the eastern Gulf by the time 92L gets there due to a marked decrease in outflow-induced shear from Stan. FWIW.

[Recurve]

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AS FAR AS
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...BUT THE NAM NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FARTHER SOUTH AND MORE INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z NAM NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE POORLY INITIALIZED...BASED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. CONSIDERING THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE NAM NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE LACK OF SUPPORT FOR ITS SOLUTION
FROM OTHER NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
BASED UPON AN OPEN WAVE/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE KEYS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING PER THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. NO CHANGES TO THE TODAY AND TONIGHT PORTION OF THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. CYCLOGENESIS OF THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SINCE MOST CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OF
LOWEST PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE KEYS WILL BE UNDER
DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE OPEN WAVE/TROUGH...
THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST AFTER THE OPEN/WAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE KEYS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME PERIODS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH COLUMBUS DAY)...
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST GULF OF
MEXICO MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...
RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE KEYS. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT OF THIS EARLY AUTUMN SEASON TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE KEYS WILL
DEPEND UPON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS EITHER SOUTHEAST OF OR
ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

[mtm4319]

5:30am TWO:

A LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

[TheEuropean]

Here is the forecast by WDSU in New Orleans:

TONIGHT: A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect through Wednesday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 75 and an easterly wind, 5-15mph.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: A 20% chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Most areas will remain dry through the period. It will continue to be very warm and humid, with highs in the upper 80s and the heat index in the low-mid 90s.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY: We'll have an area of low pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico. It's unclear at this time how strong it will be. It could be a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression, or even Tropical Storm Tammy. Regardless, you can expect a 30-40% chance for showers/storms, with the best chance in and east of the metro area. It will continue to be breezy from the east (15-25mph), with coastal flooding outside of levees a likelihood, due to tides running 2-3ft above the average. Lows will be in the low-mid 70s, with highs in the low-mid 80s.
SATURDAY - MONDAY: Behind a cold front that will move through early Friday, we'll have mostly clear conditions, with lower temperatures and lower humidity levels. It will feel much more like autumn, with lows in the 50s, north, and 60s, south. Highs will be in the lower 80s.

IMHO it can not ruled out, that 92L continue to organize and become the next depression and possible storm or more.

[beachbum_al]

So where do they think it is going? I have not had much time to be online this week so I am kind of lost. All I know is that Stan is going to visit Mexico and the other tropical depression bit the dust. And now there is something off of the bahamas.

[mtm4319]

So where do they think it is going?

They don't have a great idea at this point. Looking at this map, most models shown here have it crossing south Florida, then going into the Big Bend area and up the southeast coast. Most of these are unreliable though; the GFDL, the only well-regarded model of the ones shown, has an unsettling loop about 100 miles off the NW Florida coast. The 00Z GFS looks fairly similar to the GFDL. The NOGAPS doesn't seem to develop much of anything until it's off the South Carolina coast. The UKMET takes it WNW to a point south of Louisiana, then southward into the Yucatan.

[M_0331]

GOM

[Air Force Met]

Looking at this morning's shortwave IR and buoy/ship reports...the low is not closed and deepening slightly...which is kinda a good news/bad news thing. Good news is that 92L will have a decent low level circulation. The bad news is that it will be a lot harder for anything to get going in the low levels closer to the convection...and the convection near the LLC is very limited and the atmosphere is still hostile.

[TampaFl]

Look at the GFDL with it's loop - looks like 1985's Hurricane Elena!

Robert

[O Town]

Deffinaltley a wierd track. Was just about to post those models. Thanks!
They have all shifted a little back east again.

[O Town]

Was just running some of the models and the cmc has it doing a loop ta loop as well. Showing it come back to hit the west coast as something significant.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005100400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[TampaFl]

Yes it looks to be a very wet next couple of days here in West Central Florida. I know we sure can use the rain after a record dry July - September here in the Tampa Bay area.

Robert

[Windtalker1]

7 mile bridge in keys closed for up to 3 days...if a hurricane developes and heads toward the keys, then what? No way out to the mainland. http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... bzl-shared

[cinlfla]

Look at that crazy GFDL


http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php


Sorry but the graphic is not showing, the GFDL is doing a loop in the GOM.

[cycloneye]

AREA OF CONCERN IN THE BAHAMAS CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED JUST S OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 23N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO NEAR 31N79W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN 36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT THE SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED E OF THE TROUGH/LOW.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E
OF THE TROUGH TO 70W FROM 22N-30N.

The above from the 8 AM Discussion.