92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[bigmike]

Looking at this morning's shortwave IR and buoy/ship reports...the low is not closed and deepening slightly...which is kinda a good news/bad news thing. Good news is that 92L will have a decent low level circulation. The bad news is that it will be a lot harder for anything to get going in the low levels closer to the convection...and the convection near the LLC is very limited and the atmosphere is still hostile.

Uh can you put that in plain english for us weather morons? Does that mean there is less likelihood this will be a tropical storm weaker or stronger? Just curious and thanks for your insight.

[tracyswfla]

AREA OF CONCERN IN THE BAHAMAS CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED JUST S OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 23N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO NEAR 31N79W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN 36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT THE SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED E OF THE TROUGH/LOW.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E
OF THE TROUGH TO 70W FROM 22N-30N.

The above from the 8 AM Discussion.

Is it moving and if it is, what is the direction and speed???? My brother is going to the Bahama's on Sunday... this should be cleared out of there by then?

[Air Force Met]

Looking at this morning's shortwave IR and buoy/ship reports...the low is not closed and deepening slightly...which is kinda a good news/bad news thing. Good news is that 92L will have a decent low level circulation. The bad news is that it will be a lot harder for anything to get going in the low levels closer to the convection...and the convection near the LLC is very limited and the atmosphere is still hostile.

Uh can you put that in plain english for us weather morons? Does that mean there is less likelihood this will be a tropical storm weaker or stronger? Just curious and thanks for your insight.

First off...I meant to say "closed"...not "not closed"...waaaay too early.

I think that means it will take longer and has a better chance of being some sort of hybrid. In one of my early posts on this system...many pages ago...I stated that it will ahve some hybrid characteristics...meaning most of the rain in the eastern half...with low level clouds on the western side...and lots of shear. I still think this is what will become of it. Given the fact the low is closed (YES...I AM POSITIVE THAT IS WHAT I MEAN ) and deepening some...that means it will be more difficult for something else to get going closer to the MLC...where the convection is...and let's be honest...the convection is still scattered and not very concentrated. Nothing more than a hybrid type system will develop without convection around the center...and that will be difficult given the upper wind forecast.

[Frank2]

Re: Windtalker1's post

7 mile bridge in keys closed for up to 3 days...if a hurricane developes and heads toward the keys, then what? No way out to the mainland.

First, the bridge was reopened this morning, and second, it's very unlikely that even a tropical depression will form from this system before it crosses the peninsula tonight and Wednesday.

You all need to relax a bit - sometimes that's the downside with this type of message board, as it allows for needless worry...

Frank

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051004 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051004 1200 051005 0000 051005 1200 051006 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 78.0W 24.6N 79.6W 25.8N 81.3W 27.2N 83.1W
BAMM 24.0N 78.0W 24.7N 80.1W 25.9N 82.1W 27.1N 83.9W
A98E 24.0N 78.0W 24.7N 79.4W 25.6N 80.6W 27.0N 81.5W
LBAR 24.0N 78.0W 24.8N 79.7W 25.8N 81.4W 27.0N 83.1W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051006 1200 051007 1200 051008 1200 051009 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.6N 84.9W 30.7N 87.0W 34.6N 83.7W 38.1N 81.3W
BAMM 28.3N 85.8W 28.8N 88.3W 27.6N 86.9W 30.1N 81.7W
A98E 29.1N 81.8W 32.2N 80.9W 37.4N 75.4W 41.3N 63.9W
LBAR 28.4N 85.0W 31.5N 85.6W 35.2N 82.0W 39.0N 74.9W
SHIP 59KTS 68KTS 69KTS 58KTS
DSHP 57KTS 66KTS 67KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.0N LONCUR = 78.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 76.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 23.1N LONM24 = 73.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z models for those who like to see these.

[TheEuropean]

I think it has a chance to develop - likely hybrid at first, may be something tropical later on. May be it will not develop in a real tropical cyclone. Nevertheless floater is now on invest92:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... R4/20L.jpg

[caneman]

Re: Windtalker1's post

7 mile bridge in keys closed for up to 3 days...if a hurricane developes and heads toward the keys, then what? No way out to the mainland.

First, the bridge was reopened this morning, and second, it's very unlikely that even a tropical depression will form from this system before it crosses the peninsula tonight and Wednesday.

You all need to relax a bit - sometimes that's the downside with this type of message board, as it allows for needless worry...

Frank

While I do agree with you about overhyping things. I wouldn't rule out a TS before landfall.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Re: Windtalker1's post

7 mile bridge in keys closed for up to 3 days...if a hurricane developes and heads toward the keys, then what? No way out to the mainland.

First, the bridge was reopened this morning, and second, it's very unlikely that even a tropical depression will form from this system before it crosses the peninsula tonight and Wednesday.

You all need to relax a bit - sometimes that's the downside with this type of message board, as it allows for needless worry...

Frank

Frank the only down side to this board is its addictive!

[Rainband]

Re: Windtalker1's post

7 mile bridge in keys closed for up to 3 days...if a hurricane developes and heads toward the keys, then what? No way out to the mainland.

First, the bridge was reopened this morning, and second, it's very unlikely that even a tropical depression will form from this system before it crosses the peninsula tonight and Wednesday.

You all need to relax a bit - sometimes that's the downside with this type of message board, as it allows for needless worry...

Frank

I see no one panicking Most of us know how to read through the fluff. It's called comman sense

[DESTRUCTION5]

Plane still going out today Luis?

[cycloneye]

In a few minutes I will know as the plane is supposed to takeoff at 9:45 AM.

[wzrgirl1]

Re: Windtalker1's post

7 mile bridge in keys closed for up to 3 days...if a hurricane developes and heads toward the keys, then what? No way out to the mainland.

First, the bridge was reopened this morning, and second, it's very unlikely that even a tropical depression will form from this system before it crosses the peninsula tonight and Wednesday.

You all need to relax a bit - sometimes that's the downside with this type of message board, as it allows for needless worry...

Frank

at the time of his post the bridge was not opened yet....also what proof do you have that it will not form into a depression...it may....or may not

[x-y-no]

While I do agree with you about overhyping things. I wouldn't rule out a TS before landfall.

I just don't see that happening. The LLC (such as it is) is a good hundred NM out ahead of the convection, and there's 25 to 30 knots of westerly shear in the Florida Straits, 20 knots over most of the southern peninsula. The mid to upper level anti-cyclone centered over the NW Caribbean that's causing this is retreating, but very slowly.

There's no likelihood of this thing getting properly stacked before landfall.

[cinlfla]

There's no likelihood of this thing getting properly stacked before landfall

I agree, its looks like one big disorganized mess.

[Blown Away]

What a big mess! The models see the low S of Andros, no convection. Is there any decent chance a LLC will form near the ball of convection E of Aboco?

[cycloneye]

No takeoff from base has occured when it was supposed at 9:30 AM EDT of the NOAA2 plane and for me comes as no surpsise looking at the sat presentation this morning.

[artist]

where are you all seeing the llc, please?

[Derek Ortt]

for invests, the NOAA place often provides less frequent obs

that said, I also believe that it has been cancelled as there does not seem to be anything there

[Frank2]

Re: Rainband's post

Well, the recon for today has been cancelled (considering the strong shear, it's not surprising), and, if this was in the days before satellite, we'd probably say that this was just another rainy October morning here in South Florida - sometimes too much information is a bad thing.

That was the reason for my earlier comment - the "what if's" that result from too much information can sometimes lead to worry, then needless anxiety...

Frank

[Brent]

Not surprised...