92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Rainband]

Re: Rainband's post

Well, the recon for today has been cancelled (considering the strong shear, it's not surprising), and, if this was in the days before satellite, we'd probably say that this was just another rainy October morning here in South Florida - sometimes too much information is a bad thing.

That was the reason for my earlier comment - the "what if's" that result from too much information can sometimes lead to worry, then needless anxiety...

Frank

I see your Point

[CHRISTY]

i think were those thunderstorms are fireing up is were a LLC is going to form!

[jlauderdal]

Re: Windtalker1's post

7 mile bridge in keys closed for up to 3 days...if a hurricane developes and heads toward the keys, then what? No way out to the mainland.

First, the bridge was reopened this morning, and second, it's very unlikely that even a tropical depression will form from this system before it crosses the peninsula tonight and Wednesday.

You all need to relax a bit - sometimes that's the downside with this type of message board, as it allows for needless worry...

Frank

at the time of his post the bridge was not opened yet....also what proof do you have that it will not form into a depression...it may....or may not

Good news the bridge is open.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -headlines

[gatorcane]

Christy I think you are right and you just beat me to it! Actually, I think this invest is looking the best it has looked. The possible LLC seems to be located about 50 miles E of Bimini and there is some convection that has blown up in the past few hours around it. There is still shear but when it let's up I see this developing rather quickly as it moves over very warm tropical waters South of Florida. Once Stan moves ashore Mexico, some of the shear should let up.

[wzrgirl1]

Re: Windtalker1's post

7 mile bridge in keys closed for up to 3 days...if a hurricane developes and heads toward the keys, then what? No way out to the mainland.

First, the bridge was reopened this morning, and second, it's very unlikely that even a tropical depression will form from this system before it crosses the peninsula tonight and Wednesday.

You all need to relax a bit - sometimes that's the downside with this type of message board, as it allows for needless worry...

Frank

at the time of his post the bridge was not opened yet....also what proof do you have that it will not form into a depression...it may....or may not

Good news the bridge is open.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -headlines

somebody already posted that.............

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/posting.p ... &p=1086923

[gatorcane]

Christy I think you are right and you just beat me to it! Actually, I think this invest is looking the best it has looked. The possible LLC seems to be located about 50 miles E of Andors and there is some convection that has blown up in the past few hours around it. There is still shear but when it let's up I see this developing rather quickly as it moves over very warm tropical waters South of Florida. Once Stan moves ashore Mexico, some of the shear should let up.

[Brent]

Since when is there a closed circulation???

[gatorcane]

Since when is there a closed circulation???

I said a possible LLC. Look about 50 miles E of Andros (the largest island) and you'll see where I think the possible LLC is trying to form.

[cjrciadt]

Ummmmmm, Yeah

[gatorcane]

Quote:
Since when is there a closed circulation???


I said a possible LLC. Look about 50 miles E of Andros (the largest island) and you'll see where I think the possible LLC is trying to form.

[SoupBone]

Ummmmmm, Yeah

It just doesnt make any sense looking at the radars that the models would be right. This thing is all messed up and doesnt look like it knows where it wants to go.

[CHRISTY]

i did not say there wuz a closed LLC but after this flare up maybe its only a matter of time before one forms under those thunderstorms!

[x-y-no]

i think were those thunderstorms are fireing up is were a LLC is going to form!

IR doesn't tell you anything about what's happening at the surface.

Look at the visible loop (floater 2 will do) and you'll see a sharp wave axis (I don't see any west winds) WSW of Andros.

The low-level flow is all out of the ESE in the area under and around the convection.

[Air Force Met]

Not surprised...

Anyone who's read my posts over the last two days knows I am not surprised either.

One interesting note from the early morning vis loops; The LLC is less defined and appears to be leaning back now towards the NE. This could be an indication that the LLC is trying to pull more towards the convection (scattered as it is) and may try to develop there. That being said...the whol complex is moving west into some pretty hostile winds aloft. The only thing that is keeping the convection going is massive amounts of divergence aloft...but not in a nice "tranquil" way with an anti-cyclone overhead.

[gatorcane]

I don't think this thing is as messed up as you think. It's very ragged due to the W to E shear but I do see a possible LLC trying to form just E of Andros...you can see a spin there, albeit not that distinct yet. When the shear lets up it has the potential to rapidly develop.

[Brent]

Oh it's messed up... it looks like a complete mess. A bunch of rain and gusty winds for Florida and that's all.

[CHRISTY]

i agree.

[artist]

why do you think it would rapidly develop boca-chris?

[Brent]

i agree.

That's funny.

[caneman]

Oh it's messed up... it looks like a complete mess. A bunch of rain and gusty winds for Florida and that's all.

24 hours from now u may be needing a helping of crow. I'm not saying it's going to get strong but it looks it could develop into something minimal by tomorrow. I'll eay my crow if I'm wrong.