92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Opal storm · #421 Postby **Opal storm** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:37 am

Brent wrote:Oh it's messed up... it looks like a complete mess. A bunch of rain and gusty winds for Florida and that's all.

I would still keep an eye on it.I know nothing major will come out of this but the chance for development is there.

CHRISTY · #422 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:38 am

give it another 6 hours and we will see what happens now that stan is pulling away .(remember)this area were it is now is were we have alot of actitvity this season! ie katrina and rita!maybe conditions are not as favorable as they once were but well see what happens!

#423 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:42 am

terpfan · #424 Postby **terpfan** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:42 am

fwiw....bahamas radar link...not much to see yet...here it is

http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/loop/

#425 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:43 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#426 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:46 am

I think the possible LLC trying to form is farther west, about 30-40 miles E of Andros.

#427 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:49 am

#428 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:49 am

no, still think an LLC is trying hard to form about 30-40 miles E of Andros.

no advance · #429 Postby **no advance** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:51 am

I dont see nothing yet.

Website · #430 Postby **Brent** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:52 am

caneman wrote:
Brent wrote:Oh it's messed up... it looks like a complete mess. A bunch of rain and gusty winds for Florida and that's all.

24 hours from now u may be needing a helping of crow. I'm not saying it's going to get strong but it looks it could develop into something minimal by tomorrow. I'll eay my crow if I'm wrong.

Tomorrow it very easily could develop, but it's not going to with the current satellite presentation.

#431 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:54 am

Tomorrow it very easily could develop, but it's not going to with the current satellite presentation.

I do believe the organization has been thwarted by Stan's outflow. But Stan is now weakening and onshore so here is where the real organization begins for this invest - and we already see hints with the deeper reds in a convection burst where I do believe an LLC is trying to form.

#432 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:56 am

boca_chris wrote:I don't think this thing is as messed up as you think. It's very ragged due to the W to E shear but I do see a possible LLC trying to form just E of Andros...you can see a spin there, albeit not that distinct yet. When the shear lets up it has the potential to rapidly develop.

Oh...it's messed up...and yes...it could develop when the shear let's up...but that isn't going to happen anytime soon....especially if it moves west into the GoM. Now...if it heads north and stays under a little ridging (which still has some hear because it's not an anticyclone) it has a much better chance. The shear in the GoM will not abate anytime soon.

krysof · #433 Postby **krysof** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:58 am

If it slowly moves, than the front should catch up and pull it north. The front should be there in 2 days.

#434 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:58 am

CHRISTY · #435 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:59 am

yep i think stan's outflow has been killing this system chance to develope but now that stan has made landful things should begin to look better as far as developement is concerned.i think it has a small window to do it so if is going to develope it better hurry up before it runs out of realestate.

#436 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:01 am

caneman wrote:
Brent wrote:Oh it's messed up... it looks like a complete mess. A bunch of rain and gusty winds for Florida and that's all.

24 hours from now u may be needing a helping of crow. I'm not saying it's going to get strong but it looks it could develop into something minimal by tomorrow. I'll eay my crow if I'm wrong.

I don't think anyone doubts it could develop...but developing into anything other than a big rain-maker with some gusty winds is what we doubt...unless it takes the northern route...and even then it will be tough. And as Brent said...given the current satellite presentation...it ain't happening today...least not anytime soon. remember...yesterday people were openly talking about it being upgraded by last night or early this morning...despite some advice to the contrary.

As far as shear decreasing as stan moves away...that is true. However, an upper level low develops over the eastern GoM in the next 24 hours...and that will give just as much shear as Stan is giving now...if not more (and some dry air). Any development into the GoM will be limited and hybrid-type.

#437 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:05 am

boca_chris wrote:
Tomorrow it very easily could develop, but it's not going to with the current satellite presentation.

I do believe the organization has been thwarted by Stan's outflow. But Stan is now weakening and onshore so here is where the real organization begins for this invest - and we already see hints with the deeper reds in a convection burst where I do believe an LLC is trying to form.

The problem is though that the upper level low is forecast to develop in the eastern GoM in the enxt 24 hours...which will keep the shear going. The reason you are seeing the deeper reds is simple tropical meteorology: convergence at the surface and divergence aloft will give you deep convection in the tropics...you see it all the time with upper lows. There is great diffluence aloft over 92L...but not the kind that leads to any significant strengthening.

As far as development east of Andros, read my earlier post about the trof leaning back to the ne. That is possible...but as of right now...there is still strong southerly flow over Andros.

#438 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:06 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:

That's not at the surface though. Look at the lower clouds...there's no rotation.

recmod · #439 Postby **recmod** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:07 am

Air Force Met wrote:Oh...it's messed up...and yes...it could develop when the shear let's up...but that isn't going to happen anytime soon....especially if it moves west into the GoM. Now...if it heads north and stays under a little ridging (which still has some hear because it's not an anticyclone) it has a much better chance. The shear in the GoM will not abate anytime soon.

I am confused by this post from a Pro Met???? The NHC says that conditions will IMPROVE as the system moves west (ie..into the Gulf). All the National Weather Service forecast discussions from Florida (Melbourne, Miami, Tampa, Key West) state that development of this system is more likely once the system crosses Florida into the Gulf..

Why the discrepency in opinions????

--Lou

#440 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:08 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:

One problem with your pic. There are nothing but southerly and se winds where you drew the circulation. The low level flow is entirely from the SE-S in that area...and in the entire area east of Andros. It is possible something could try to develop there (read earlier posts) but as of right now...that is not happening at all. Nothing suggests any low level center reforming in that area as of yet.

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