Big Rain Event is over for Puerto Rico,USVI,BVI

[Ivanhater]

ugh!!! caribepr, for some reason it keeps sending my messages to my outbox, so i hope you read this.....i totally misunderstood you first post and im soooo sorry, i just thought it was someone taking a jab at Americans, now i know thats not what you were doing....sorry for the confusion

[bvigal]

hope it lets up for you guys soon too! praying it will here in WPB FL but think we are in it for some time to come yet.
Glad you got power back before everything spoiled bvigal.

Thanks, artist. I hope you don't have any flooding there in WPB, but it does look like rain's on the agenda for at least east Florida, as it is on ours.

While Puerto Rico is more accustomed to rains like this than we in the VI, their ground has been saturated for some time. It doesn't take much of a downpour now to bring their rivers out of banks. It would not be an exaggeration to say certain areas in PR may experience life-threatening conditions. I sure hope everyone there can stay safe until this weather clears!

[artist]

thanks bvigal - and I should have included all those in PR as well Stay safe everyone where all this unsettled weather is hitting!

[cycloneye]

Yes Bvigal a dangerous situation can occur here if more heavy rains fall especially in eastern Puerto Rico where some totals between 4-8 inches haved fallen in the past 24 hours.

[bvigal]

4-8" - incredible! Please stay safe, Luis!!

(still pouring here - probably just had another inch)

[schmita]

Hi guys,

From yesterday morning till this morning my rain gauge showed 4.5 inches. We have had flooding on parts of the island, rock slides etc. Schools are closed for the day.
Grey and overcast now.
Looking at the radar it looks like PR may be starting to experience the next round, due to arrive by us by tonight I guess.
Steve Lyon on TWC pointed it out last evening as a Tropical Wave and the possibility of flash flooding.
Stay dry out there !
irina

[caribepr]

ugh!!! caribepr, for some reason it keeps sending my messages to my outbox, so i hope you read this.....i totally misunderstood you first post and im soooo sorry, i just thought it was someone taking a jab at Americans, now i know thats not what you were doing....sorry for the confusion

No problem..glad we got it straight! Thanks, and all is well.

*funny! I now have all three attempts! Thanks again

[caribepr]

Hi guys,

From yesterday morning till this morning my rain gauge showed 4.5 inches. We have had flooding on parts of the island, rock slides etc. Schools are closed for the day.
Grey and overcast now.
Looking at the radar it looks like PR may be starting to experience the next round, due to arrive by us by tonight I guess.
Steve Lyon on TWC pointed it out last evening as a Tropical Wave and the possibility of flash flooding.
Stay dry out there !
irina

Luis, bvigal, schmita (and the others!) - stay safe, stay home! We're not getting anything really bad on Culebra at the moment and literally CAN'T get anything as bad as the rest of you with your geography. It's a good day and night to stay cozy with a warm drink and a good book (or a good computer!)

[cycloneye]

-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 PM AST TUE OCT 4 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY
IN PUERTO RICO
JUANA DIAZ

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

*FOR PEOPLE ALONG THE FOLLOWING RIVER(S)...RIO JACAGUAS

* AT 331 PM AST...A RIVER LEVEL SENSOR INDICATED THAT THE WATER
LEVELS WERE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND STILL INCREASING FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RAPID RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING
WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1805 6644 1800 6645 1799 6651 1806 6651


There haved been many flood warnings like this one in the past 48 hours here.Hopefully that trough starts to move or weakens because I dont want to see massive floodings happening.

[Rainband]

Wow. I bet your glad you high up in that condo. Stay safe Bud.

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST TUE OCT 4 2005

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-051000-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...BAYAMON...
CAROLINA...CATANO...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...
TRUJILLO ALTO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...LOIZA...
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...RIO GRANDE...ARROYO...GUAYAMA...MAUNABO...
PATILLAS...SALINAS...YABUCOA...AGUAS BUENAS...CAGUAS...CAYEY...
CIDRA...COMERIO...GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...SAN LORENZO...
ARECIBO...BARCELONETA...DORADO...FLORIDA...MANATI...VEGA ALTA...
VEGA BAJA...AIBONITO...BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...
JAYUYA...MOROVIS...NARANJITO...OROCOVIS...VILLALBA...GUAYANILLA...
JUANA DIAZ...YAUCO...PENUELAS...PONCE...SANTA ISABEL...AGUADILLA...
CAMUY...HATILLO...ISABELA...QUEBRADILLAS...ADJUNTAS...LARES...
LAS MARIAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...
AGUADA...ANASCO...HORMIGUEROS...MAYAGUEZ...MOCA...RINCON...
SAN GERMAN...CABO ROJO...GUANICA...LAJAS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
ST THOMAS ST JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...ST CROIX
800 PM AST TUE OCT 4 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* UNTIL 6 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING

* A VERY UNSTABLE AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PUERTO RICO OR THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GROUND REMAINS VERY SATURATED...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

$$

RIVERA





Let's see what happens tonight if it clears or the rains return but the extension of the flash flood watch until tommorow morning indicate that more is on the way and looking at the radar yes there is plenty.

[cycloneye]

VIC020-030-050430-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
927 PM AST TUE OCT 4 2005

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM AST
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

AT 928 PM AST WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN. AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE FALLEN WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS OVER ISOLATED PARTS OF ST THOMAS...AND IT CONTINUES
TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.



The watches and warnings keep poping up this time for the USVI.

[caribepr]

Just talked to a friend of mine from St. John. They were in a lull, which I told him wasn't going to last long, according to the radar.
We didn't have much rain here during the day but it's raining in earnest now.
Two friends were over shopping on the big island today and the only comment one of them had when I called to see if they got back okay was, yes, I'm exhausted and now I'm going to bed, I'll tell you about it tomorrow. It was an adventure.
The cart hasn't washed away though! (but the woman living next to it came out today and said she was a little surprised, that the water was running like mad last night...good cart, good cart).

Hoping no one loses life or home with this. Be safe!

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
606 AM AST WED OCT 5 2005

PRZ001>006-011>013-VIZ001-002-052200-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...BAYAMON...
CAROLINA...CATANO...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...
TRUJILLO ALTO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...LOIZA...
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...RIO GRANDE...ARROYO...GUAYAMA...MAUNABO...
PATILLAS...SALINAS...YABUCOA...AGUAS BUENAS...CAGUAS...CAYEY...
CIDRA...COMERIO...GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...SAN LORENZO...
ARECIBO...BARCELONETA...DORADO...FLORIDA...MANATI...VEGA ALTA...
VEGA BAJA...AIBONITO...BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...
JAYUYA...MOROVIS...NARANJITO...OROCOVIS...VILLALBA...CABO ROJO...
GUANICA...LAJAS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
ST THOMAS ST JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...ST CROIX
606 AM AST WED OCT 5 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO...NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO

* UNTIL 600 PM.

* DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE REMAINDER OF
PUERTO RICO WILL BE ADDED TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.




Let's see what happens today with the rain as the trough still is nearby.It was a tranquil night here in San Juan.

[caribepr]

It rained all night (well, as long as I was awake anyway!) here, but nothing this morning and the sun is out, lots of white clouds, but lots of blue as well. The cart will be OPEN! - as long as it lasts...

[bvigal]

It rained all night (well, as long as I was awake anyway!) here, but nothing this morning and the sun is out, lots of white clouds, but lots of blue as well. The cart will be OPEN! - as long as it lasts...

Good morning caribepr! Well, as for our local forecast, the last 3 shots of satellite look to me the trough is disconnecting from Tammy as she gets organized, and the moisture in our area is dissipating. I believe NWS-PR will soon cancel flood watch and change forecast of "widespread showers". What do you think? Have a good "cart" day, make lots of $$!

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051040
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
640 AM AST WED OCT 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS ABUNDANT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF
THE E CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA...SE ACROSS THE NE CARIB CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SLOWLY WSW...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE COMPLEX COMBINATION OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION. A MID
LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS P.R. THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY...BUT THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM IS THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SHEAR...LIFT...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF THE LEEWARDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC...WITH
STRONG ELY FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC COLLIDING WITH
MUCH WEAKER LLVL FLOW EXTENDING FROM P.R. TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS
CONVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING THE MOISTURE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE FORCED WSW OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...FOR A DRYING TREND TO COMMENCE...FINALLY...TOMORROW EVENING
AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS DRIER WEATHER TREND MAY LAST ONLY A COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN INTERESTING SCENARIO IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE THIS
WEEKEND INVOLVING A COLD FRONT EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST...THE
DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF OF FLORIDA...AND THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTHEAST. SO...SUMMER IS OVER AND WE ARE NOW
ENTERING THE TRANSITION PERIOD OF FALL...WITH ATLANTIC WATERS
REMAINING VERY VERY WARM...AND THE COLLISION OF COLD AND WARM CORE
SYSTEMS...WEATHER WILL BE VERY INTERESTING...AND CHALLENGING TO
FORECAST.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.
PORTIONS OF THE WEST HALF OF P.R. WERE DROPPED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...A FEW RIVER SYSTEMS...NAMELY RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO
GUANAJIBO REMAINED VERY HIGH...AND THESE ZONES HAVE BEEN LEFT
UNDER THE WATCH. WITH A LITTLE MORNING SUNSHINE...WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO IGNITE ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...AND THE REMAINDER OF P.R.
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE WATCH LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A MARKED CONTRAST FROM SW TO
NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG E TO SE FLOW ARE
JUST OUTSIDE OUR ATLC WATERS...WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY IN THE FAR
NE CORNER OF OUR AREA. THIS FLOW HAS GENERATED A MODERATE PERIOD ENE
WIND SWELL THAT IS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA
PASSAGE...AND SOME OF THAT ENERGY REACHING THE N COAST OR P.R.
MEANWHILE...WINDS REMAIN MUCH LIGHTER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLC. WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ELY AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE
HIGH BUILDS MILDLY INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS FOR A MORE HOMOGENEOUS
FLOW. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERING SOLUTIONS BEING SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL
MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCAL SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...AND RIVERS HIGH.
SEVERAL SPOTS ACROSS P.R. SAW 4 TO 8+ INCHES YESTERDAY PER NWS
DOPPLER ESTIMATES...WHILE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SAW LESSER AMOUNTS BUT
MORE CONSISTENT RAINS. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE MORE
EASILY ATTAINED TODAY WITH LESSER RAIN AMOUNTS. ALL LOCAL INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FROM PROMPT ACTION SHOULD WARNINGS
BE ISSUED.

Here is the discussion from the NWS in San Juan about what to expect and it will be a challenge for the forecasters what will occur with the upper lows and troughs.

[skysummit]

It looksl like things are very confusing down there Cyclone.

[bvigal]

Luis, I read that this morning. I just don't think it will verify. Satellite loops appear trough is breaking up...

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 051944
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST WED OCT 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE THE ELEMENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WERE PRESENT OVER THE REGION
TODAY...I.E. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC EVENTS HELPED TO SUPPRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM TAMMY AND
BEING ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS HELPED TO
SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE
REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEYOND
THAT...THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH A LOW LEVEL DRYING TREND EXPECTED AND A DECREASE IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


BEYOND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. ON
THE ONE HAND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STILL APPROACH
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE OTHER
HAND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION AND MIGHT KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM DIGGING FURTHER
INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. SO WHICH ONE DOMINATES...THE TROUGH OR
THE RIDGE...WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE IMPACT ON THE LONGER TERM FORECAST.
LASTLY...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION MAY STILL
LINGER CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND MAY ULTIMATELY PROVIDE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL. SO THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND THAT WAS REFLECTED IN THE CHANGE IN THE 12Z
GUIDANCE.



Good news that less rain will be in the area in the next 24 to 36 hours.Let's see if that pans out but uncertainty continues on the long range forecast.