Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Frank2]

Interesting to note that Stan would have likely become another major hurricane, had it not made the unexpected dive to the southwest (see the NHC TCD comment of this morning).

Don't want to disagree with my old boss at KHOU, but, it seems that the NHC might be correct in dissipating Stan in the mountainous area of the Mexican isthumus in the next day or so...

Frank

[TheEuropean]

More than 31 people killed by Stan-related floods in El Salvador and Guatemala. Adding the person who died in Cancun, this brings Stan's death toll to 32.

Hi gilbert88, I disagree that the 31 deaths in El Salvador and Guatemala are from "Stan". There was another wave, that may have developed on eastern pacific if Stan had not intensified.

[no advance]

I think Euro is right. The deaths were from the flooding south Mex. TW

[Gorky]

Looks more to me like a lot of convection from Invest 99e was kinda sucked into Stan due to it';s proximity, and this is what caused the floods there as it passed over Guatemala and El Salvador. Not sure if you would attribute the deaths to Stan or 99e in this sort of case

[Derek Ortt]

those go to Stan since they were a part of the inflow

[TheEuropean]

those go to Stan since they were a part of the inflow

Hi Derek, I disagree again. The heaviest rains fell on saturday and sunday, days before the inflow of "Stan" had influence on this system.

[AZRainman]

The heaviest rains fell on saturday and sunday, days before the inflow of "Stan" had influence on this system.

You're wrong, and haven't been reading news or watching the event.







OCHA Situation Report No. 1
El Salvador

Situation

Floods and Landslides

1. After torrential rainfalls and mudslides, at least 23 people were killed and 2,000 evacuated in the regions south and west of the capital San Salvador. The amount of rainfall over the last 3 days is equivalent to the forecasted amount for the month of October.

2. The National Emergency System declared a status of red alert on 3 October due to the rains from tropical storm "Stan", which affected the coast of Mexico.

3. Authorities confirmed that the bridge "La Lechuza" in the area of Feria Internacional has collapsed. The road has become impassable since the beginning of the rains due to heavy traffic.

4. SNET (Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales) confirmed on 3 October that the rains will continue with greater intensity in the north of the country as it continues to be under the influence of tropical storm "Stan" as it moves towards the north of Mexico.

[artist]

gilbert - are you anywhere near Stan? if so please stay safe

[cjrciadt]

The LBAR once again is a joker, what is the AEMI thinking.

[Anonymous]

If Stan killed 32 people...he will be retired.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Only if the respective governments of that area request that he be retired. I'm not so sure El Salvador would.

[Javlin]

Correct me if I am wrong looks though as if a couple of the models are pulling old Stan back into the BOC.That would prove to be an interesting event should that occur.Parts of FL would feel the effects later if this should come to fruitation.

[Brent]

Those models are crazy... he's not doing that. The mountains will shred him to pieces.

[skysummit]

Check out this volcano that Stan is about to pass over....or may be already over it.

[quandary]

If Stan killed 32 people...he will be retired.

Usually that hasn't been the case.

[Anonymous]

Hmm..

Keith killed 24...retired
Iris killed 31...retired
Michelle killed 17...retired
Isidore killed 6-8....retired
Lili killed 13....retired

Stan has UNOFFICIALLY killed more people than all of those hurricanes.

[bombarderoazul]

Hello fellow posters, I am a native of El Salvador and I have lived in the United States many years now, however I remember when I was a teen in El Salvador going through many disasters. Floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions. Honduras and Nicaragua protect El Salvador from hurricanes, but we still get massive amounts of rain. When Mitch struck Central America in 98 El Salvador got huge amounts of rain, almost 300 people died.

I have read the newspapers from my country and heavy rain is being forecasted for the next three days. I just hope the death toll stays the same as it is now.

http://laprensa.com.sv/lluvias/default.asp

[no advance]

I dont think it is all about so called kills. Look at Gordon when it traveled over Haiti. Its name was not retired.

[Buck]

It depends... if Mexico or El Salvador want it retired, they can request it. If they don't, I doubt the WMO will retire it. If they do request it, it will be retired.

Gordon killed 23 in Guatemala in 2000. Not retired.
Gordon killed nearly 1200 in Haiti in 1994. Not retired (travesty).
TS Charley killed 20 in Texas in 1998. Not retired.
TS Alberto killed 30 in Georgia & Alabama in 1994. Not retired (travesty).

So, it can go either way. Stan has a good chance at being retired. As does Ophelia, since she caused twice as much damage as Lili.

[Anonymous]

Stan has a good chance at being retired. As does Ophelia, since she caused twice as much damage as Lili.

FROM THE SEPTEMBER NHC SUMMARY::
ONE DEATH WAS ATTRIBUTED TO OPHELIA... A DROWNING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE STORM CAUSED AN ESTIMATED $50
MILLION IN DAMAGE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... WITH
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION NOTED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.

Lili killed 13, and caused 900 million...compare that to Ophelia's 50 million...