92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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MiamiensisWx

#561 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:06 pm

NastyCat4 wrote:There is a 0% chance of a Tropical Storm out of this. The "low" has no circulation at the present time. The T-storms are 500 miles separated from the low--so development is unlikely. Also, shear has NOT decreased as was expected. So, we will have what is scientifically known as a "mess" to deal with in Florida---wet, windy, and messy, but no tropical development.

Were it to develop if it makes it into the Gulf (it may not, as it may go WNW/NW across the Peninsula) would be a hybrid at best.


True... it IS very unlikely that INVEST.92L will become a tropical storm. However, I think it may easily become a tropical depression at least.

What is your opinion on my statement?
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#562 Postby krysof » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:07 pm

You can't say this has a 0% chance at a tropical storm, because nothing this year is etched in stone. If this thing continues to organize, I believe it may reach tropical storm status.
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#563 Postby artist » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:07 pm

current conditions at Elbow Cay according to this page - (don't know how accurate it is) but the pressure has fallen to 1005 or 29.678 oh! and 5.28 inches of rain today. (didn't type fast enough) now 5.29 inches

http://www.icspet.com/weather/WeatherTest.html
Last edited by artist on Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#564 Postby vacanechaser » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:08 pm

No way that is nearing T.D. status... The shear is way to strong from the southwest still, there is no sign of a surface, closed circulation right now either... Just because you see a few theunderstorms near the center, not over the center, does not mean tropical depression or storm is forming... Just sit back, relax and watch what happens.. those thunderstorms will have to last and wrap around the center and that is just not happening right now due to shear..


Jesse V. Bass III
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MiamiensisWx

#565 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:14 pm

vacanechaser wrote:No way that is nearing T.D. status... The shear is way to strong from the southwest still, there is no sign of a surface, closed sirculation right now either... Just because you see a few theunderstorms near the center, not over the center, does not mean tropical depression or storm is forming... Just sit back, relax and watch what happens.. those thunderstorms will have to last and wrap around the center and that is just not happening right now due to shear..


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Good points... however, the blow-up of convection near the center is still interesting. The system as a whole has also seemingly improved in organization from yesterday. Also, pressures have slowly dropped.

It is looking better on visible imagery (including the floater), not just on infra-red imagery. See below...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

I think I see a slight spin, in addition.

Sorry if I am wrong... it is just my opinion, and I am basing it on information...
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#566 Postby Hurrilurker » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:21 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Good points... however, the blow-up of convection near the center is still interesting. The system as a whole has also seemingly improved in organization from yesterday. Also, pressures have slowly dropped.

It sure looks like it's trying to do something. But as of right now, it's not much.
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#567 Postby vacanechaser » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:23 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
vacanechaser wrote:No way that is nearing T.D. status... The shear is way to strong from the southwest still, there is no sign of a surface, closed sirculation right now either... Just because you see a few theunderstorms near the center, not over the center, does not mean tropical depression or storm is forming... Just sit back, relax and watch what happens.. those thunderstorms will have to last and wrap around the center and that is just not happening right now due to shear..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
hurricane Intercept Research Team


Good points... however, the blow-up of convection near the center is still interesting. The system as a whole has also seemingly imptoved in organization from yesterday. Also, pressures have slowly dropped.

It is looking better on visible imagery (including the floater), not just on infra-red imagery. See below...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

I think I see a slight spin, in addition.

Sorry if I am wrong... it is just my opinion, and I am basing it on information...


No need to say your sorry... It is your opinion.. However, I see a lot of swirls and spins right now in the entire circulation.. It is hard to pick up on which might be the one... I am seeing more of what looks like a surface low forming further north say around 27.5N and 77.5W... but who knows since we have no recon in there...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I think it is possible for a depression to form, however, I dont think it is even close right now... Unless that is a low level center developing further north and east...


Jesse v. Bass III
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#568 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:26 pm

vacanechaser wrote:No need to say your sorry... It is your opinion.. However, I see a lot of swirls and spins right now in the entire circulation.. It is hard to pick up on which might be the one... I am seeing more of what looks like a surface low forming further north say around 27.5N and 77.5W... but who knows since we have no recon in there...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I think it is possible for a depression to form, however, I dont think it is even close right now... Unless that is a low level center developing further north and east...


Jesse v. Bass III
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Hurricane Intercept Research Team


The center COULD be reforming a little further north and east near 27.5N/77.5W like you said... that is what I am observing and referring to...

I think RECON may soon need to check INVEST.92L out, especially if it continues to organize.
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#569 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:29 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:It sure looks like it's trying to do something. But as of right now, it's not much.


True... it may not seem to be much right now. However, I agree and think it definately is at least TRYING to get better organized and trying to reform the center slightly more northeast closer to the small blow-up of convection and the larger area(s) of convection, somewhere near where vacanechaser said... all in all, the system needs to be monitored, even if it does not become a tropical storm. In my opinion, even though it may not be or seem significant, a tropical depression is NOT nothing.
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#570 Postby vacanechaser » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:32 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
vacanechaser wrote:No need to say your sorry... It is your opinion.. However, I see a lot of swirls and spins right now in the entire circulation.. It is hard to pick up on which might be the one... I am seeing more of what looks like a surface low forming further north say around 27.5N and 77.5W... but who knows since we have no recon in there...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I think it is possible for a depression to form, however, I dont think it is even close right now... Unless that is a low level center developing further north and east...


Jesse v. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team


The center COULD be reforming a little further north and east near 27.5N/77.5W like you said... that is what I am observing and referring to...

I think RECON may soon need to check INVEST.92L out, especially if it continues to organize.


Glad I am not the only one that saw that... :D

The thunderstorms look like they have hit a wall though on the west side.. the shear really needs to relax.. If that is the center, whole different ball game here... Looks like it could turn more up the coast... I think the trough digging in to the east of it has really turned it more northerly thean westward..

Jesse V. Bass III
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MiamiensisWx

#571 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:37 pm

vacanechaser wrote:Glad I am not the only one that saw that... :D

The thunderstorms look like they have hit a wall though on the west side.. the shear really needs to relax.. If that is the center, whole different ball game here... Looks like it could turn more up the coast... I think the trough digging in to the east of it has really turned it more northerly thean westward..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team


Yep... for developmemt further than an tropical depression, less shear is necessary...

I think as well that INVEST.92L appears to have taken a somewhat more northerly, short jog... I agree with you on the trough and more northerly turn more up the coastline as well. That is definately possible.
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#572 Postby artist » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:38 pm

pressure is now down to 29.648 - 1004 mb

http://www.icspet.com/weather/WeatherTest.html
Last edited by artist on Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#573 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:43 pm

artist wrote:pressure is now down to 29.648 -

http://www.icspet.com/weather/WeatherTest.html


That's pretty low, about 1003.9999 mb!
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MiamiensisWx

#574 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:44 pm

HURAKAN wrote:That's pretty low, about 1003.9999 mb!


Do you think INVEST.92L is close to TD status, HURAKAN? I definately do!
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#575 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:46 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:That's pretty low, about 1003.9999 mb!


Do you think INVEST.92L is close to TD status, HURAKAN? I definately do!


Still I don't think it's close to TD status, not enough organization. But if shear relaxes, then this could intensify pretty quick before it's picked up by the cold front, and if the low pressure area stays over water and not over Florida just dumping rain.
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MiamiensisWx

#576 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:49 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Still I don't think it's close to TD status, not enough organization. But if shear relaxes, then this could intensify pretty quick before it's picked up by the cold front, and if the low pressure area stays over water and not over Florida just dumping rain.


I think it may be close... you can check out visible and infra-red imagery (including the floaters). If you look at the visible floater, it appears that the center may be reforming near 27.5N/77.5W.

What do you think?
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#577 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:53 pm

i think this is a td already guys ! think when recon goes in 2morrow we might be in for a surprise!
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#578 Postby artist » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:53 pm

should have added the winds are steady at 24.2 kts.

http://www.icspet.com/weather/WeatherTest.html

ooops - now back down to 18 kts.
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#579 Postby Bgator » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:56 pm

i think 27.5 is wat to north that like 200 miles north of previously thought i say near 26N is more accurate but thats just my opinion!
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#580 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:57 pm

Take one look... :eek: Looks like a Vigorous Circulation
What is that huge circulation??
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG


[img]http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG [/img]
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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