92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[MiamiensisWx]

i think 27.5 is wat to north that like 200 miles north of previously thought i say near 26N is more accurate but thats just my opinion!

You could be right... however, I did not say I thought the center reformed at EXACTLY 27.5N/77.5W, I said NEAR (or AROUND) that location.

[Air Force Met]

iam wondering if this blow up continues we may a tropical storm by 2night!

No! It won't be! Not tonight! It got a lot of growing to do! The convection isn't that well organized! Be patient! Time will tell!



Edited to add...and NO! It's not a TD right now! Not even close! Maybe tomorrow! But not right now!

[artist]

current pressure at White Sound or Rocky BAy which is also on Elbow Cay is 29.619 steady, winds currently 26.1 kts.

http://www.rockybay.com/webcam/webcam_page.htm

highest gust today 58.6 kts at 10:21

[Dean4Storms]

Starting to see a healthy spin on long range WSR88D from Miami. I would still say the low is west of this, void of convection.




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

[vacanechaser]

iam wondering if this blow up continues we may a tropical storm by 2night!

No! It won't be! Not tonight! It got a lot of growing to do! The convection isn't that well organized! Be patient! Time will tell!



Edited to add...and NO! It's not a TD right now! Not even close! Maybe tomorrow! But not right now!

could not agree more..

AFM, what do you think the chances are this thing comes up the coast more than into the Gulf...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Nimbus]

The convection has been converging a bit later this afternoon maybe they will at least declare it a TD.

I saw low scud clouds racing south this morning west of Tampa so I know there is a broad circulation in the lower levels.

[Scorpion]

Wow, 59 kt gusts? This doesn't need to be a TD to be a windmaker. Looks like we can get some TS gusts here. Nice .

[Bgator]

current pressure at White Sound or Rocky BAy which is also on Elbow Cay is 29.619 steady, winds currently 26.1 kts.

http://www.rockybay.com/webcam/webcam_page.htm

highest gust today 58.6 kts at 10:21

where is rocky bay those are at lest depression winds that data is proably inaccurate or NHC would have known!

[Air Force Met]

AFM, what do you think the chances are this thing comes up the coast more than into the Gulf...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
hurricane Intercept Research Team

I think there is a good chance of that. right now I can see a battle of centers setting up. I do believe a piece is headed up the coast...how much of it gets sapped by the western piece is anyone's guess. Right now...I could see two weak systems developing. There just isn't the dynamics available to get one strong system that saps the energy from the other. We will ahve to see what will happen over the next 48 hours or so when that big piece of moisture now to the N-NE of the "WEAK" low (not a td ) breaks off and heads up the coast. There should be some ridging over it and some low-mid level vorticity.

[vacanechaser]

AFM, what do you think the chances are this thing comes up the coast more than into the Gulf...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
hurricane Intercept Research Team

I think there is a good chance of that. right now I can see a battle of centers setting up. I do believe a piece is headed up the coast...how much of it gets sapped by the western piece is anyone's guess. Right now...I could see two weak systems developing. There just isn't the dynamics available to get one strong system that saps the energy from the other. We will ahve to see what will happen over the next 48 hours or so when that big piece of moisture now to the N-NE of the "WEAK" low (not a td ) breaks off and heads up the coast. There should be some ridging over it and some low-mid level vorticity.

Thanx... one more thing, how much of that trough to the east is playing into it maybe coming along the coast and not westward??? Just wondering if I was semi- correct in thinking that had a roll... thanx


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Air Force Met]

Thanx... one more thing, how much of that trough to the east is playing into it maybe coming along the coast and not westward??? Just wondering if I was semi- correct in thinking that had a roll... thanx


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
hurricane Intercept Research Team

It plays an indirect role because it serves to amplify the ridge and increase the southerly flow over the system...which will break a piece of the energy off and send it north with teh steering flow while the other piece moves west into the GoM and deepens via the other upper level low in the GoM.

[Bgator]

current pressure at White Sound or Rocky BAy which is also on Elbow Cay is 29.619 steady, winds currently 26.1 kts.

http://www.rockybay.com/webcam/webcam_page.htm

highest gust today 58.6 kts at 10:21

where is rocky bay those are at lest depression winds that data is proably inaccurate or NHC would have known!

Wow pressures remain falling and winds are picking up i think this iwll be a depression at the most by the time it gets to the coast@!

[artist]

pressure has now dropped to 29.589 or 1002 mb

http://www.rockybay.com/webcam/webcam_page.htm

[Scorpion]

Thats rather low for an invest.

[artist]

these are on Elbow Cay in the Bahamas - two different areas - one is in White Sound, the other Rocky Bay or also known as Tahiti Beach



http://www.lonelyplanet.com/mapimages/c ... ahamas.gif

[hurricanedude]

tropical sub-tropical- hybrid...whatever, I have seen worse classified as a TS.

[Thunder44]

It's not going to be classified as a TC without a closed surface circulation. There no reports of west winds in the area.

[fci]

Wow you guys have no idea how happy I am that it is going
to rain-- in the heart of the rainy season I saw nothing but
dissappointing let-downs with drought all the time

Finally some nice water for the yards before the dry season
sets in...

Agreed... it is also good that some areas of southern Florida, including probably areas of extreme southern Florida, may avoid some of the bulk of rainfall, since all over southern Florida more rain is NOT needed!

NOT a true statement.

We are barely over average and only because of June's excess rainfall.
Look up the statistics and you will see that we are right on average the past 3 months.

You live in Florida.
It rains a lot.
That is normal
And expected.
A lot of rain IS needed here since the rainy season ends soon and we often get into a drought situation here in Winter/Spring.
Look it up.

[vacanechaser]

Thanx... one more thing, how much of that trough to the east is playing into it maybe coming along the coast and not westward??? Just wondering if I was semi- correct in thinking that had a roll... thanx


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
hurricane Intercept Research Team

It plays an indirect role because it serves to amplify the ridge and increase the southerly flow over the system...which will break a piece of the energy off and send it north with teh steering flow while the other piece moves west into the GoM and deepens via the other upper level low in the GoM.

Thanx AFM


Jesse V. Bass III
http;//www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Air Force Met]

pressure has now dropped to 29.589 or 1002 mb

http://www.rockybay.com/webcam/webcam_page.htm

I am highly skeptical of that pressure. Buoys all around that area are reporting ~1007+mb. We know that all of those can't be wrong...and there is no way there is a 5 mb pressure diff over that short distance. So...that pressure is likely 5 mb's too low. It doesn't make any sense and if I was analyzing a chart...I would throw that pressure out because I could not make it fit into the synoptic pattern. You do not get a 5mb pressure difference over that distance with this type of system. If it were truly 1002 mb...there would be a noticable westerly flow on the south side. That is not occuring and thus the pressure cannot be correct.

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/data/t-01/atl-seus.png