Bush Leading in Crucial States to Dems

[southerngale]

While the nation generally remains closely divided, the balance has shifted at the top of the political ticket, with President Bush showing surprising strength in states Democrats will need in 2004, pollsters say.

Democrats are counting on the public's attention shifting back toward the troubled economy with the war in Iraq over, but it's far from clear that shift automatically will work to their advantage.

Bush's postwar bounce should fade in another six or seven months, said pollster Larry Hugick of Princeton Survey Research Associates. Before the war with Iraq, Bush's standing was returning to levels before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

But Hugick acknowledged that new international crises or an easing of economic problems could halt that downward trend.


For now, Bush's position in states crucial to the Democratic support base makes clear the difficulties Democrats face.

"The parties remain pretty balanced," said Robert Shapiro, a public opinion specialist at Columbia University. "We have competitive elections for control of the House and the Senate. Where we find the imbalance is in regard to the presidency."

The presidential race will be fought out state by state, especially so in those key to a Democratic victory. Some state pollsters attending the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research offered their views over the weekend.

_In New York, Bush is very popular and leads the Democratic candidates in head-to-head matchups in the Democratic-leaning state, said Doug Schwartz, director of the Quinnipiac poll. "If the Democrats don't hold onto New York, there's no way they can win the nation," he said.

_In New Jersey, Bush is more popular than Democratic Gov. Jim McGreevey, who is wrestling with budget headaches and other political problems, said Cliff Zukin, director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University and a pollster.

_In Minnesota, a competitive state won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, Bush is popular overall and his ratings on the war are strong, although he is more vulnerable on the economy, said Robert Daves, a pollster at the Star Tribune newspaper in Minneapolis.

_In California, the president is relatively popular among Hispanics, which could help neutralize a Democratic trend in the state in recent years, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.

"The burden is on the Democrats to put forth a credible candidate," said Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "They have another problem of creating any kind of credible support for Democratic foreign policy and anti-terrorism policy."

Even if public attention shifts toward the economy, the public may give Bush credit for trying to improve it, said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll.

"Bush has been pushing tax cuts in the face of public indifference," he said. "But if you take something and push it, it shows you're interested."

The potency of the economy as an issue for Democrats may require a shift from public worries about the economy to concerns their own personal situations, Eagleton's Zukin said.

Pollsters are closely watching Bush's position in the polls overall and on the economy for signs of weakness. They note that his approval rating had been dropping steadily before the spike upward with the war against Iraq.

But while the pollsters say they expect to see an increased public focus on the economy in the coming months, many acknowledged the fears over terrorism will remain a potent and unpredictable factor.

[Rainband]

He has done a terrific job IMHO..I think he is a shoe IN for reelection!!! As I said before NO ONE could have done better given the challanges he has faced thus far!!

[j]

Not a big surprise. In a recent poll, something to the tune of 60+ % of Democrats polled, couldn't name a single candidate running for them. Now THAT is bad, and shows just how un-informed they are.

[JQ Public]

Not a big surprise. In a recent poll, something to the tune of 60+ % of Democrats polled, couldn't name a single candidate running for them. Now THAT is bad, and shows just how un-informed they are.

Being that the president is the only one republicans have to remember doesn't really say much either. Primaries haven't even started yet though.

[j]

give me a break JQ....The fact that the majority of Dems can't name even a SINGLE candidate, speaks volumes for their lack of interest..or exemplifies their defeatest attitude

[chadtm80]

In a recent poll, something to the tune of 60+ % of Democrats polled, couldn't name a single candidate running for them.

ya, I saw that.. That is a lil sad

Being that the president is the only one republicans have to remember doesn't really say much either

[streetsoldier]

Pardon me all to hell, JQ, BUT if you recall the 2000 election, the GOP had a small host of potential candidates running (as do the Dems now), and this didn't confuse me at all; I chose George W. Bush months before the GOP Convention did.

I also didn't have any problems understanding the ballots during that election (as in every US, State, municipal and special election since 1972- perfect record!), and...no "hanging" or "dimpled chads" here, either!

[chadtm80]

no "hanging" or "dimpled chads" here, either

You forgot Pregnant chads :o

Trust me being named Chad and living in FL i've been called them all

LOL

[wx247]

For starters, I do think Bush a good lead in many areas. He has done a lot of great things and I am proud to have him as the President during this time.

However, it is early in the cycle and I don't think Bush is a shoe-in by any means. Take this quote for example :"People should remember that a year is a lifetime in politics," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton was barely a blip on the Democratic primary screen and then-President Bush was regarded as unbeatable because of his war victory. Things can change and change rapidly." This came from the FOX News Website.

I don't think you can call a race this early, but it is clear that things are going Bush's way. As it stands right now, Bush WILL PROBABLY win, but like in so many cases with politicians, the election is his to lose.

[streetsoldier]

All I have to say is, "What chad? I never, NEVER had sexual relations with THAT chad! I don't even KNOW that chad! (Uh, where's my cigar?)"

[Stephanie]

For starters, I do think Bush a good lead in many areas. He has done a lot of great things and I am proud to have him as the President during this time.

However, it is early in the cycle and I don't think Bush is a shoe-in by any means. Take this quote for example :"People should remember that a year is a lifetime in politics," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton was barely a blip on the Democratic primary screen and then-President Bush was regarded as unbeatable because of his war victory. Things can change and change rapidly." This came from the FOX News Website.

I don't think you can call a race this early, but it is clear that things are going Bush's way. As it stands right now, Bush WILL PROBABLY win, but like in so many cases with politicians, the election is his to lose.

This is true Wx247!

[chadtm80]

You are 100% correct wx.. Was just about to post something to that effect

[weatherlover427]

I'm a Democrat and I have no clue of ANYONE who's running other than President Bush! :o

[Lindaloo]

HEY!!! But they have Al Sharpton!! LOL!!!

[j]

Hey Lin...why don't all us Republicans get out and vote in the Democratic primaries for Sharpton.


Hmmmmm??????

[j]

I'm a Democrat and I have no clue of ANYONE who's running other than President Bush! :o

i'm shocked Josh...you being from California and all.

[wx247]

LOL... I am not a Democrat and know most of them, but then it looks like I am in the minority! Yeesh... I don't know if it has to do with people not caring or the fact that so many people are uninformed. It is kind of scary when you think about it. :o

[Stephanie]

I know most of them but I'm not impressed.

There's still a long way to go before next year's election and anything can happen.

j - you're a registered Democrat?

[mf_dolphin]

I'm not ready to call Bush a shoe in either. He has my vote for sure but there's a lot that will go on before election time. Lieberman would probably have the best chance from the current crop of Democratis contenders but he's too much like a Republican for most Democrats

[j]

GOD NO Steph....but unless I'm wrong, (and I'll have to check my State Laws), I can vote anyway I want in the Primaries. I'll get back to you.

But...whether I'm right or wrong, that wasn't the point. I was just humoring myself with the thought of Sharpton getting the Nomination and how it could be accomplished.