OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10-18 2005

[CaptinCrunch]

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10-16 2005 . . . . . . .

TODAYS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TRANSITION OVER NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD TO ABOUT THE 90TH MERIDIAN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... AROUND THE 10TH... TODAYS GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT IS THAT THE MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN SHOWS A TROUGH FARTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE ROCKIES AND AN AREA OF WETNESS EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM COLORADO NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL INTRIGUE CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE HPC SURFACE DEPICTION OUT TO OCTOBER 11 SHOWING LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND GETTING WRAPPED UP IN THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ON OCTOBER 10-11. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HINDER THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SEVERAL DAYS OF WIND AND RAIN FOR THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THE ULTIMATE FATE OF THE LOW IS AN OPEN QUESTION. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TODAY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SEVERAL FORECAST TOOLS... BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

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8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 18 2005

THE MODELS REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT IN ESTABLISHING A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE 90TH MERIDIAN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LAST NIGHTS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE 14TH. THE MEAN PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST ... WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST ...THE TROUGH IN THE EAST... AND A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PATTERN IS STILL NOT LOCKED IN CONCRETE... AS LAST NIGHTS ECMWF RUN SEEMS TO BE MORE RELUCTANT TO KICK OUT THE EASTERN RIDGE. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO FORECAST BY THIS MODEL NEAR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.

[aggiecutter]

Looks like fall is about to return...

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html