93L Invest

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

actually i think the center may reform more east were all the convection is? opinions.

NHC says it's moving NNE....

NOO!!!! GO AWAY STORM!!!

LOL....awh..come on...you need a turn too!

Stop it you mean person!!!

I will make sure this thing stays away from me..

<<Begins Hurricane Voodoo>>>

[tracyswfla]

actually i think the center may reform more east were all the convection is? opinions.

NHC says it's moving NNE....

NOO!!!! GO AWAY STORM!!!

LOL....awh..come on...you need a turn too!

Well LA, Mississippi, and Texas don't need a storm. My side of Florida is in for some turbulence!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

actually i think the center may reform more east were all the convection is? opinions.

NHC says it's moving NNE....

NOO!!!! GO AWAY STORM!!!

LOL....awh..come on...you need a turn too!

Well LA, Mississippi, and Texas don't need a storm. My side of Florida is in for some turbulence!

turbulance may be an understatement I fear

Gosh ALL I WANTED was some rain--- and now I got what will
probably be a big-time TS headed for me UNBELIEVABLE!!!

[Dean4Storms]

After further review I have discovered what appears to me to be the surface low with 93L. Go to this link and speed up the animation, you will see a low level low spinning over the very NW corner of the Yucatan itself. See what you think.......


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=4

[chadtm80]

Looks to be Mid Level Dean.. We have been looking at that all morning

[skysummit]

After further review I have discovered what appears to me to be the surface low with 93L. Go to this link and speed up the animation, you will see a low level low spinning over the very NW corner of the Yucatan itself. See what you think.......


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=4

Ahh....I see that. Is that really at the surface? What do our pros think?

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to be Mid Level Dean.. We have been looking at that all morning

Oh OK, got in kind of late here this AM. This would have to be remnants of Stan and I'm not so sure at what level it is at, they are indicating pressure falls in the area.

[wxwonder12]

Does Tammy have anything to do with the direction 93L will go like to ene compared to n or nne?? Don't know if I phrased that right, hope someone understands what I am trying to ask.

[skysummit]

The 12z NAM (lol) has 93L dancing around the central Gulf then making landfall near Apalachicola, Fl. It also initializes a Low in the vicinity west of Merida.

[Dean4Storms]

Here's the obs for Merida which is just East of what appears to be the center of this low and they have been as low as 1005mbs with now a ESE wind. Interesting.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMD.html



Then Cancun, which is further to the east and just now west of the convection that blew off the coast has 1007mb of pressure and also a east wind. But note that Merida well to the west near the NW corner of the Yucatan has lower pressure. This tells me that the low I'm seeing is probably at the surface.


http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMUN.html

[MomH]

Seems to me that if you are on the West Coast of Central FL and haven't done so already you might want to read the articles I posted in the Hurricane Preparation area. Title: "A "must read" for Tampa-St. Pete folks." Looks like you folks may be in for it. As may I, though farther inland.
MomH

[melhow]

newbie question...

I always assumed that gulf storms travel west or northwest unless they recurve riding the edge of a ridge. Would it be abnormal if this forms into Vince for it to head north east, or is this the natural direction storms that form around the Yucatan?

Also, storms that form in this area and travel the way it looks this one might, how intense can they get? It just seems to me that if this storm were to make a b-line north east from the Yucatan that it wouldn't have as much water to travel over to gain a bunch of intensity as, say, a storm that had the length of the gulf to travel starting around Cuba and heading West towards Texas. Yes? No? I have no idea.

And yes, I live near Tampa, so I'm pretty interested...

TIA

[Brent]

About heading northeast... no not at all. In fact, due to troughs and the upper air patterns, it's HIGHLY LIKELY this time of year that a storm would go northeast. If this were July or August it wouldn't, but it's October.

On the how strong... I would think maybe a Cat 1 hurricane if it moved slow enough and avoided land until Florida... but that's just a guess.

[tracyswfla]

About heading northeast... no not at all. In fact, due to troughs and the upper air patterns, it's HIGHLY LIKELY this time of year that a storm would go northeast. If this were July or August it wouldn't, but it's October.

On the how strong... I would think maybe a Cat 1 hurricane if it moved slow enough and avoided land until Florida... but that's just a guess.

What Charley did in August of last year is typical for October, correct?

[chrisnnavarre]

Oh, boy.....I hope this is not another Western Panhandle event....when have storms down here ever traveled NE into Western Florida? I wouldn't think very often. What are the SSTs right now for the Eastern-Central GOM?

I'm still boarded up....they go up just like Christmas Lights every year now.

[HurricaneQueen]

Tracy:

From what I remember Charlie came at us from the south-through the Keys. I may be mistaken but I don't believe it had a Yucatan origin.

Are you ready for a rough ride??

Your neighbor to the south,
Lynn

[Dean4Storms]

newbie question...

I always assumed that gulf storms travel west or northwest unless they recurve riding the edge of a ridge. Would it be abnormal if this forms into Vince for it to head north east, or is this the natural direction storms that form around the Yucatan?

Also, storms that form in this area and travel the way it looks this one might, how intense can they get? It just seems to me that if this storm were to make a b-line north east from the Yucatan that it wouldn't have as much water to travel over to gain a bunch of intensity as, say, a storm that had the length of the gulf to travel starting around Cuba and heading West towards Texas. Yes? No? I have no idea.

And yes, I live near Tampa, so I'm pretty interested...


The direction storms head in the Gulf are dependant on the weather around them just like anywhere else. True, that in the summer the westerlies or jet stream is usually far enough north that summertime ridges do most of the steering. But this time of year Cold Fronts being introduced by the Jet often pick these systems up wherever they form in the Gulf and bring them more toward the NE with the flow out ahead of the front. The intensity of TC's this time of year north of say 25n are usually held in check by the upper level winds, these fronts not only pick these systems up moreso, they also bring strong southerly upper level winds which tend to weaken them before landfall.

TIA

[canetracker]

October prevailing tracks: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/october.gif

[Dean4Storms]

newbie question...

I always assumed that gulf storms travel west or northwest unless they recurve riding the edge of a ridge. Would it be abnormal if this forms into Vince for it to head north east, or is this the natural direction storms that form around the Yucatan?

Also, storms that form in this area and travel the way it looks this one might, how intense can they get? It just seems to me that if this storm were to make a b-line north east from the Yucatan that it wouldn't have as much water to travel over to gain a bunch of intensity as, say, a storm that had the length of the gulf to travel starting around Cuba and heading West towards Texas. Yes? No? I have no idea.

And yes, I live near Tampa, so I'm pretty interested...

TIA

The direction storms head in the Gulf are dependant on the weather around them just like anywhere else. True, that in the summer the westerlies or jet stream is usually far enough north that summertime ridges do most of the steering. But this time of year Cold Fronts being introduced by the Jet often pick these systems up wherever they form in the Gulf and bring them more toward the NE with the flow out ahead of the front. The intensity of TC's this time of year north of say 25n are usually held in check by the upper level winds, these fronts not only pick these systems up moreso, they also bring strong southerly upper level winds which tend to weaken them before landfall.

[tracyswfla]

Tracy:

From what I remember Charlie came at us from the south-through the Keys. I may be mistaken but I don't believe it had a Yucatan origin.

Are you ready for a rough ride??

Your neighbor to the south,
Lynn

I should have clarified that Charley moved NE after entering the Gulf... What is your opinion on this one. Of course I am ready.... Charley fixed my house up!