94L Invest E of Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Brent]

This is ridiclous... is there a blob that doesn't have an invest?

[SouthFloridawx]

[jasons2k]

Wasn't it just yesterday when we were saying "Stan is the only tropical cyclone on the globe". My goodness-gracious-good-grief-stopitnow!

[cycloneye]

SAT IMAGERY


A big view of the atlantic and 94L in the lower part of the pic.

[thermos]

This is ridiclous... is there a blob that doesn't have an invest?

No. Because this season all blobs are potential Cat 5 monster catastrophic hurricanes.

[Brent]

Wasn't it just yesterday when we were saying "Stan is the only tropical cyclone on the globe". My goodness-gracious-good-grief-stopitnow!

Seems like everytime we comment on it being quiet after a storm, 3 more pop up.

[Hyperstorm]

This afternoon, the well-defined tropical wave appears to have a low pressure center near 8N, 37.5W. That is unusually far to the south, but not unheard of in terms of development (i.e. Hurricane Irene, 1990). This means that the system will be less influenced by the major mid-latitude patterns that are very common for this time of year. It is currently moving westward and energizing itself with impressive moisture from the ITCZ.

Right now, the wave is experiencing some fairly moderate westerly shear in the upper-levels. This is all due to a MAJOR trough over the central Atlantic Ocean that is imparting unfavorable conditions throughout the majority of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. However, this morning there were signs of this trough closing into a cold-core low pressure center. At the same time, an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Atlantic is moving toward the west. This high is expected to continue moving westward and impart some favorable upper-level conditions for this wave to try to develop starting late tomorrow.

Regarding track, the GFS forecasts the upper-level trough NE of the islands to stay around for a few more days. Later this week, it shows signs of stretching this trough North/South and slowly lifting it northward as the high begins to build in more westward. It is still TOO early to speculate beyond a couple of days, since (as usual) model forecasts will change many times.

The system may be steered somewhat more WNW if it develops in response to the trough and a weakness associated with it. Once/IF that trough lifts northward as suggested (still uncertain), it may very well begin to track in a more westward course late in the period, probably the beginning of next week. Depending on how far north it moves due to this weakness, means if it will be any kind of threat.

Regardless of what happens track-wise, it appears that this system definitely has some potential to develop if the favorable upper-level pattern pans out. It will only need to consolidate that low pressure center a little more and that happens with intense convection over it...not yet happening.

[cycloneye]

As always a good discussion Hyperstorm about this system.Let's see what will occur in the next few days with it and how the players meaning the troughs and ridges will influence it on movement and on intensity.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It Certainly looks good....May be able to sneak into the Carribean next week...Interesting

[Swimdude]

This is ridiclous... is there a blob that doesn't have an invest?

Actually, no. There really isn't. lol.

[cycloneye]

FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051005 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051005 1800 051006 0600 051006 1800 051007 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.5N 37.5W 9.1N 40.2W 10.2N 42.9W 11.7N 45.4W
BAMM 8.5N 37.5W 9.1N 40.6W 10.1N 43.6W 11.5N 46.3W
A98E 8.5N 37.5W 8.8N 41.3W 9.1N 44.8W 9.5N 47.8W
LBAR 8.5N 37.5W 9.2N 40.8W 10.4N 43.9W 12.1N 46.8W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051007 1800 051008 1800 051009 1800 051010 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 47.7W 17.4N 50.9W 21.1N 51.7W 21.6N 52.6W
BAMM 13.2N 48.5W 17.1N 51.3W 20.4N 51.9W 21.1N 53.2W
A98E 9.8N 50.3W 11.2N 54.2W 12.6N 57.4W 14.4N 60.4W
LBAR 14.1N 49.2W 19.1N 51.2W 25.0N 52.0W 27.7N 52.4W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 53KTS 61KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 53KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 37.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 8.1N LONM12 = 33.5W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 7.7N LONM24 = 29.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Will it be Vince or Wilma if it develops?

[Anonymous]

Well...it depends if 93L devlops first.

[GalvestonDuck]

If in fact that is 94L.

Not sure if this is a time-sensitive image, but right now, it looks like a headless creature.

[Brent]

Recurves before the Islands? A bit hard to believe with it below 10 N.

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks a little bit like an alien on a motorcycle or a creature.

[cycloneye]

A very interesting image there.

[Hyperstorm]

Brief Update:

It appears that the low pressure center has started moving WNW during the past few hours. That usually means that it is trying to become deeper (vertically stacked), as it is being influenced by the central Atlantic trough. This should continue over the next 2-3 days. After that, all bets are off. Stay tuned.

[krysof]

Is this a cape verde wave technically?

[cycloneye]

Graphic of the 18:00z models.

[krysof]

intresting to point out is, a few models take it into the islands, a few turn it NW and even NNW, well to the north of the islands