93L Invest

[arkess7]

yea our local news was focused on tammy.....i beginning not to care about her anymore.......uggg one of those models shows (what may be vince) making landfall around tampa and coming right over me!!!!

as HurricaneGirl says HOLY CRAP!!

stay away, stay away from tampa bay........

[Noah]

Seems to me that if you are on the West Coast of Central FL and haven't done so already you might want to read the articles I posted in the Hurricane Preparation area. Title: "A "must read" for Tampa-St. Pete folks." Looks like you folks may be in for it. As may I, though farther inland.
MomH

What about Sarasota???

Well... Sarasota would be on the West Coast.

I know but most people are talking of tampa, st pete area.

[CHRISTY]

i dont think it will be that far north.

[skysummit]

i dont think it will be that far north.

Serious? Where do you think it will go?

[CHRISTY]

i think this moving NE and i say from about ft myers south to the keys this will come in.

[arkess7]

we are all gona just have to WATCH WAIT and SEE

[tracyswfla]

i think this moving NE and i say from about ft myers south to the keys this will come in.

Werent you right about Tammy developing?

[jax]

i think this moving NE and i say from about ft myers south to the keys this will come in.

Yikes... that's right at you CHRISTY ! ! !

[joseph01]

i think this moving NE and i say from about ft myers south to the keys this will come in.

Yikes... that's right at you CHRISTY ! ! !

I'm experiencing strong dejavu.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im not making a comment on this storm because I don't think its going to amount to anything but Rain...Tammy is in too close Proximity for this to develop...

[skysummit]

Im not making a comment on this storm because I don't think its going to amount to anything but Rain...Tammy is in too close Proximity for this to develop...

That was a comment

[TampaFl]

From NWS Tampa:

FXUS62 KTBW 051659
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

...WETTEST WEATHER DELAYED A LITTLE BIT...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...INTERESTING FORECAST SETTING UP BEHIND
TAMMY AS SHE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN GULF WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING UNTIL IT
GETS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING S AND SWWARD FROM THE
REMAINS OF TAMMY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ONCE
TAMMY GETS FAR ENUF NORTH OUR WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO SE AND THEN S
AND PULL UP SOME DEEP MOISTURE.

THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EAST OF
THE YUCATAN. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SET UP A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND
THEN PULL THE LOW NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE FA AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS
IN. LATEST TPC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MENTIONS THAT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NNE. EVEN SHUD IT NOT DEVELOP...THE AREA SHUD SEE SOME OF THE MUCH
NEEDED RAIN PROMISED EARLIER. LOCAL RESIDENTS SHUD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR UPDATES ISSUED BY THE TPC IN CASE THIS SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP
INTO A TC AS IT COULD BE OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST BY FRI MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST POPS FOR FRI ARE IN THE SCT RANGE...AND WILL BUMP
THIS UP TO LIKELY GIVEN THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL
OVER THE AREA.
WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STILL FORECASTING A
SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...AND MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TREND OF MOST OF THE SUMMER...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WED)...POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES TROUGH THE SOUTHERN US. MODEL DATA
SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE FRONT REACHING NORTHERN FL...BUT HOW FAR SOUTH
IT WILL PENETRATE IS STILL NOT CLEAR. AT THIS TIME NO CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS WILL BE MADE AS IT IS REASONABLE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS
IN ORDER TO IDENTIFY A TREND IN TERMS OF THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THE FRONTAL EVENT. IF THE MODELS PERSIST IN BRINGING THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH THEN POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED AS DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FURTHER DECREASE CHANCES
OF RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA RETURNS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL DROP POPS TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...STRONGEST WINDS FROM TAMMY CONTINUE TO BE ON THE NORTH AND
EAST SIDE. LATEST QUIKSCAT SWATH MATCHED UP WELL WITH FORECAST FOR
1030 PACKAGE...SCA WINDS IN OUR NRN WATERS AND SCEC CENTRAL. EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE DECREASING TODAY...AND SHUD BE ABLE TO DROP SCEC
FOR CENTRAL AND SRN NEAR SHORE WATERS AND FOR SRN OFFSHORE WATERS AT
430. WINDS SHUD CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP DURING THE AFTN...AND MAY BE
ABLE TO DROP THE SCA DOWN TO AN SCEC. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS CHANGE...
WATCH BUOY 42036 AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION BEFORE SENDING OUT
THE PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 85 76 85 / 50 70 60 60
FMY 75 85 77 86 / 50 70 60 60
GIF 75 85 75 87 / 50 70 60 60
SRQ 75 85 76 85 / 50 70 60 60
BKV 74 85 74 85 / 50 70 60 60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO
20 NM AND FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RS
LONG TERM....TR

[Kennethb]

Its moving too fast to develop. But for safety's sake, I am sure it will be named. Too, I think the NHC wants to use all the names this year.

[Roxy]

i think this moving NE and i say from about ft myers south to the keys this will come in.

Yikes... that's right at you CHRISTY ! ! !

[AdvAutoBob]

Our local weather at noon did not even mention this invest here in Ft. Myers. Say we should get drier by the weekend

LOL probably not ready to broadcast it yet. I saw that too and laughed when they didn't mention it.

Well, I'm not at all surprised the tuba playing idiot didn't mention it, he has a hard enough time as it is (must have some pictures of somebody to have kept his job this long)... I pay no attention to our local mets in the SW Florida area, especially given the fighting over "who forecasted Charley's turn first"... thank God for Storm2K, CFHC and the Net in general. Be vigilant is all I can add here.

[Nimbus]

There was a wind shift this morning at Cancun with a surface pressure drop down to about 1005 MB's.

If this intensifies enough to be steered by the upper level winds the ridge orientation will play a role.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.GIF

This storm could even move west if the two highs bridge across.

[skysummit]

That ULL in the NE GOM is slowly moving west. Would this have any impact as to bring our Yuc system more toward northern Florida? Also...look at the bottom left of the loop. Did Stan produce twins?!?!?!?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[cycloneye]

SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 06/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 06/1230Z
D. 25.0N 84.0W
E. 06/1400Z TO 06/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

First Mission to 93L as always they say (If Necessary).Takeoff at 8:30 AM EDT

[Brent]

SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 06/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 06/1230Z
D. 25.0N 84.0W
E. 06/1400Z TO 06/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

First Mission to 93L as always they say (If Necessary).Takeoff at 8:30 AM EDT

I'm not surprised...

[CHRISTY]