Major Hurricane in New York...

[Astro_man92]

but aren't the foundations usually concrete, lot of it

[Jim Cantore]

I can easily say this

NYC is WAY over due for a major hurricane disaster and thats frightening

[Jim Cantore]

but aren't the foundations usually concrete, lot of it

water is more powerful then we could imagine

[Hurricaneman]

but aren't the foundations usually concrete, lot of it

water is more powerful then we could imagine

2 feet of water can sweep away a car

[Shoshana]

FYI from the official website of the Empire State Building

http://www.esbnyc.com/kids/kids_faq.cfm ... N=86010221

Does the Empire State Building move or sway?
The Empire State Building does not sway, it gives. With a wind of 110 miles an hour, the Building gives 1.48 inches. Movement off center is never greater than one quarter inch, thus measurable movement is only one half inch, one quarter inch on either side.

How much does the building weigh?
The approximate weight 365,000 tons.

And from the same place:

Dear Web Visitor, The concrete and steel foundation of Empire State Building goes 55 feet below ground into Manhattan bedrock. The Empire State Building does not sway, it gives. With a wind of 110 miles an hour, the Building gives 1.48 inches. Movement off center is never greater than one quarter inch, thus measurable movement is only one half inch, one quarter inch on either side. NYC is not in of area of strong earthquakes. For more construction information about this building, we suggest "Building the Empire State" by Carol,Willis -- an excellent book.
Regards,
The Empire State Building Team

It's heavier than a car.

'shana

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone see this happeneing soon, Im hoping not

[lurkey]

http://www.heraldsun.com/nationworld/14-653294.html

NYC Unveils Hurricane Evacuation Plan



By LARRY McSHANE : Associated Press Writer
Oct 4, 2005 : 10:59 pm ET

NEW YORK -- It's coming, with skyscraper-rattling winds and a 30-foot storm surge that threatens to submerge Wall Street, flood the subways and turn Coney Island into a water park. And when it arrives, more than 3 million New Yorkers -- more than six times the population of New Orleans -- could be forced to evacuate by the first major hurricane to hit the city since 1938.

A killer storm in the nation's largest city, with flooding in all five boroughs, inaccessible highways and airports, and enormous traffic jams, would require an unprecedented response. After the summer of Katrina and Rita, New Yorkers are wondering if the city can handle the challenge.

"The plan now is full of technical and other management flaws," said state Assemblyman Richard Brodsky, who chairs a committee investigating the city's planned response. "There's a basic bottom line: We are incredibly vulnerable, and our leaders are patting us on the head saying, `There, there. Trust us.'"

A recent WNBC-TV/Marist Poll indicated that 62 percent of New Yorkers felt it was not possible to evacuate their neighborhoods.

Not true, city emergency officials say. New York is ready to respond to the hurricane risks, and the city dispatched staffers to New Orleans and Texas in hopes of learning from Katrina and Rita.

"There's a lot of criticism and public debate, but our plan is workable and we're prepared," said Jarrod Bernstein, spokesman for the city Office of Emergency Management. "Our plan is comprehensive and only getting better."

A major hurricane barrels into New York City about once every 90 years. The last big blow came with the 1938 Long Island Express, which killed 700 people, about 600 in New England, and left 63,000 people homeless. Its center came ashore on Long Island, about 75 miles from New York City.

"If it happened before, it will happen again," said hurricane expert Nicholas Coch, a Queens College professor of coastal geology.

The city's current response plan for a category 4 storm with 155 mph winds would handle 3.3 million evacuees and provide shelter for up to 800,000 displaced people, Bernstein said. But the OEM estimated it would take nearly 18 hours to evacuate just 1 million people, putting a severe strain on emergency services, mass transit and the infrastructure.

Coch mentioned another rarely discussed factor: a Northern hurricane moves typically at 34 mph, about triple the speed of a Southern storm.

A big blast would come with a storm surge of 30 feet, turning the water into "a giant bulldozer sweeping away everything in its path," according to OEM's "Hurricanes and New York City."

In fact, an 1821 hurricane lifted the tide 13 feet in an hour, with the East and Hudson rivers converging over lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street. Deaths and property damage were limited because the city was far smaller back then.

In today's downtown, the FDR Drive, One Police Plaza and City Hall are all in the flood zone for a major hurricane making landfall just south of the city. Wall Street would be under water. The South Street Seaport would become more sea, less port.

To avert traffic jams in a city where the 2.3-mile trip across Manhattan can take an hour on an ordinary day, officials would evacuate from the coasts inward and use mass transportation as much as possible. This would include the PATH trains, New Jersey Transit and Amtrak for people seeking shelter outside the city.

Unlike New Orleans, the city has no land below sea level. But it is particularly vulnerable because of its location: tucked in a bend between the New Jersey and Long Island coastlines, at a right angle to incoming storms. That could turn even a category 2 hurricane into a major nightmare.

Brodsky is critical of OEM's plan to move evacuees in two shifts. Initially, evacuees would travel to one of 23 reception centers across the five boroughs. Only then would they board a bus or van for transportation to an evacuation center -- if New Yorkers even show up.

Convincing them about the dangers of a hurricane on the Hudson is a major part of the process. "Most New Yorkers," Coch said, "think hurricanes only occur in places with palm trees."

[Hurricaneman]

That would be the true "worst case scenerio"

[krysof]

That would be the true "worst case scenerio"

it said every 90 years, a major hurricane impacts NYC, that means the next major hurricane is scheduled between 2020-2030 since the last one was the long island express of 1938.

[terstorm1012]

thanks for bumping this.

NYC is a surprisingly hazurdous place natural wise. it even has a moderate seismic risk due to 2 mag 5+ quakes occuring in 1737 and 1884.

The 1821 East Coast Storm would probably be the closest thing that this article has scenarioed. Passed over NYC and sent sustained hurricane force winds inland past Philadelphia. Some researchers think it was a low-end 4 when it hit New Jersey.

EDITED TO ADD LINK

http://nycem.org/techdocs/bibliography/nycecon.asp (Good Site)

[f5]

NYC would be flattened if it got Katrina type surge

[terstorm1012]

The skyscrapers would hold...their foundations are pretty deep down in the Bedrock and they are designed to sway. There may be some seismic retrofitting going on in NYC too due to the seismic risk that the city does have. But areas along the river fronts and bay fronts facing the Atlantic would see heavy damage from Surge.

FYI--F2-F3 twisters have crossed over downtown Ft. Worth and Nashville in recent years and their skyscrapers did not topple...so I think NYC's would be okay, structurally...they'd lose all their glass i'd imagine though.

[Derek Ortt]

a tornado though is about 30 seconds of wind.

I'd expect the sky scrapers to hold at least through a 3 (and I cannot see a 4 or a 5 to get to NYC), unless of course a barge rams into them with the 30-40 foot surge and knocks out one of the lower floors completely

[donsutherland1]

Astro_man92,

The 2004 GDP came to $11.7 trillion.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

[donsutherland1]

Terstorm1012,

Other assessments also classify the storm as a TS by the time it reached NJ and NYC, but I highly doubt that. Based on the news accounts at the time, I believe it was a hurricane when it passed very close to NYC, but probably not Cat. 3. Also, given that no Cat. 4 hurricanes have made landfall north of NC, and based on its track relative to some other major hurricanes that impacted the East Coast, I would probably think it was more likely Cat. 2 or 3 when it crossed SE NJ.

As for NYC/Long Island, probably the highest strength for a landfalling system might be a Cat. 4 hurricane under special circumstances, barring a dramatic long-term warming of the Atlantic Ocean that would change this. The 1938 hurricane was a Cat. 3 hurricane and probably the benchmark for the NYC/Long Island area. Donna was a Cat. 3 at Long Island landfall and probably the benchmark in terms of storms being able to conserve their strength while taking an in-close East Coast track. The Great Colonial Hurricane was more likely a Category 3 than Cat. 4 storm, as well.

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the HURDAT reanalysis, Donna was revised down to either a 2 or a 1 at Long Island

[donsutherland1]

WXFIEND,

NYC's skyscrapers should fare all right with some structural damage and a lot of window damage for a Cat. 3 hurricane. No skyscrapers of that magnitude have been tested by a Cat 4. or 5 'cane and given higher wind speeds at greater altitudes, it would be speculative to assume one way or another how they'd stand up to a Cat. 4 or 5 'cane (if exposed to the sustained winds and higher gusts).

Recent evidence has hinted that assessments have been overstated:

∙ The Superdome was supposed to withstand 200 mph winds. It suffered roof and some structural damage at much lower windspeeds.

∙ Windows that were supposed to withstand 140 mph winds in south Florida blew out when Katrina came through.

∙ Houston's skyscrapers saw much more window damage than had been anticipated when Alica impacted the city in 1983.

A lot of the estimates are theoretical. There are inherent limitations in the absence of actually having tested skyscrapers (particularly those 50 stories and taller) against such conditions and uncertainties are real. I'm not saying that there would be massive structural damage with a Cat. 4 or 5 cane. But there would probably be appreciable damage and one could not rule out much worse given the uncertainties.

[terstorm1012]

Thanks Don, very informative.

But . . . there is some limited paleoclimate research done along the coast there that shows that 4's have come up that far...

http://www.gsajournals.org/gsaonline/?r ... -7613(2001)029%3C0615:SEOIHS%3E2.0.CO%3B2

http://72.14.207.104/search?q=cache:8W7 ... rsey&hl=en

1-in-10,000 year storm maybe?

[Weatherfreak14]

Has their been a Landfall in NY higher than cat3?

[donsutherland1]

Derek,

You probably have later information on that than I. I didn't realize Donna's re-analysis had been completed. Given its track, it would make more sense than the idea that it maintained Cat. 3 strength.