94L Invest E of Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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artist
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#41 Postby artist » Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:37 pm

not good news for the islands - let's hope more veer to the right.
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#42 Postby skysummit » Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:39 pm

Look to the very end of the tracks...they're all in pretty much agreement that it will turn more toward the west.
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#43 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Oct 05, 2005 3:13 pm

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#44 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 05, 2005 3:17 pm

So all the reliable models recurve east of the islands(Clipper is a CLIMO model) and we all know what XTRAP is...
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#45 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 3:22 pm

the only model I see there that recurves it is Lbar the others between 96 and 120 hours turns it back to the west!
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#46 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:24 pm

Let's see how the 00:00z models tonight have their tracks.
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#47 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:28 pm

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1550
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES WELL
ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE MAY BE
FORMING WITH 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.


5:30 PM TWO.
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#48 Postby Swimdude » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:29 pm

Brent wrote:So all the reliable models recurve east of the islands(Clipper is a CLIMO model) and we all know what XTRAP is...



Speaking of which, why the crrrra... is the XTRAP model always a flippin' straight line?!
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#49 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:31 pm

Extrapolated
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#50 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:31 pm

Swimdude wrote:
Brent wrote:So all the reliable models recurve east of the islands(Clipper is a CLIMO model) and we all know what XTRAP is...



Speaking of which, why the crrrra... is the XTRAP model always a flippin' straight line?!


If the current motion continues... that's all. IT SHOULD BE IGNORED.
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#51 Postby skysummit » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:31 pm

Swimdude wrote:
Brent wrote:So all the reliable models recurve east of the islands(Clipper is a CLIMO model) and we all know what XTRAP is...



Speaking of which, why the crrrra... is the XTRAP model always a flippin' straight line?!


The XTRAP shows the motion from the past 12 hours....all they do is extend the line for better visiblilty.
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#52 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:31 pm

Swimdude wrote:
Brent wrote:So all the reliable models recurve east of the islands(Clipper is a CLIMO model) and we all know what XTRAP is...



Speaking of which, why the crrrra... is the XTRAP model always a flippin' straight line?!

because its an eXTRAPolation of the current motion of the system, if the storm were to move at EXACTLY the same direction and EXACTLY the same speed it was intialized at.
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#53 Postby artist » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:33 pm

that posting was so small I couldn't read what the models were - that's what I get for not getting my glasses! :D thanks for clueing me in everyone.
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#54 Postby calculatedrisk » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:05 pm

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 8.5 38.2 275./20.0
6 9.1 38.7 322./ 7.8
12 9.5 39.6 295./10.3
18 10.9 40.4 329./15.7
24 11.9 41.7 308./15.5
30 12.7 43.0 303./15.6
36 13.5 43.9 311./12.3
42 14.8 44.8 326./15.1
48 16.0 45.5 328./13.7
54 16.9 46.2 322./11.4
60 18.1 46.9 330./13.2
66 18.9 47.7 318./11.1
72 19.9 48.2 334./11.2
78 20.9 48.8 325./11.1
84 21.6 49.4 322./ 9.8
90 22.3 50.0 321./ 8.4
96 22.9 50.3 330./ 6.2
102 23.3 50.6 323./ 5.6
108 23.6 51.0 308./ 4.3
114 23.9 51.1 344./ 3.5
120 24.3 51.2 348./ 3.9
126 24.6 51.2 348./ 2.9
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#55 Postby artist » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:07 pm

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#56 Postby artist » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:07 pm

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#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:33 pm


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051006 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051006 0000 051006 1200 051007 0000 051007 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.9N 39.4W 9.7N 42.4W 11.0N 44.8W 12.7N 46.8W
BAMM 8.9N 39.4W 9.8N 42.3W 11.1N 44.8W 12.7N 47.0W
A98E 8.9N 39.4W 9.6N 43.2W 10.1N 46.5W 10.9N 49.3W
LBAR 8.9N 39.4W 10.1N 42.5W 11.7N 45.4W 13.8N 47.7W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051008 0000 051009 0000 051010 0000 051011 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 48.4W 19.9N 49.3W 21.0N 48.6W 18.2N 48.8W
BAMM 14.6N 48.6W 18.9N 50.0W 21.1N 50.0W 20.6N 51.5W
A98E 11.6N 51.4W 14.2N 54.9W 17.0N 57.3W 20.6N 58.0W
LBAR 15.9N 49.4W 21.9N 50.9W 27.7N 52.3W 32.7N 52.9W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 53KTS 55KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 53KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 39.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 8.2N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 7.4N LONM24 = 29.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Models
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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:34 pm

This system is going for the Kentucky Derby, 25 mph.
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#59 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:53 pm

Some Good Convection:

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#60 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:14 pm

Image

00:00z Graphic.
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